Thursday, March 6, 2014

SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine (Reuters) - Crimea's parliament voted to join Russia on Thursday and its Moscow-backed government set a referendum within 10 days on the decision in a dramatic escalation of the crisis over the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula. | The world has not seen such startling Russian fiction since Dostoyevsky wrote: "President Putin's Fiction"



U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, center, hosts the Budapest Memorandum Ministerial meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Deshchytsia, right, and British Foreign Secretary William Hague, left, at the U.S. ambassador's residence in Paris on March 5. Associated Press
Threats by the U.S. and European powers to impose tough sanctions on Russia over its incursion into Ukraine have run into a difficult economic reality: the West has as much at stake as Moscow. Photo: AP.
-

SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine (Reuters) - Crimea's parliament voted to join Russia on Thursday and its Moscow-backed government set a referendum within 10 days on the decision in a dramatic escalation of the crisis over the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula.


-

Why Putin Doesn’t Respect Us

1 Share
Just as we’ve turned the coverage of politics into sports, we’re doing the same with geopolitics. There is much nonsense being written about how Vladimir Putin showed how he is “tougher” than Barack Obama and how Obama now needs to demonstrate his manhood. This is how great powers get drawn into the politics of small tribes and end up in great wars that end badly for everyone. We vastly exaggerate Putin’s strength — so does he — and we vastly underestimate our own strength, and ability to weaken him through nonmilitary means.
Let’s start with Putin. Any man who actually believes, as Putin has said, that the breakup of the Soviet Union was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century is caught up in a dangerous fantasy that can’t end well for him or his people. The Soviet Union died because Communism could not provide rising standards of living, and its collapse actually unleashed boundless human energy all across Eastern Europe and Russia. A wise Putin would have redesigned Russia so its vast human talent could take advantage of all that energy. He would be fighting today to get Russia into the European Union, not to keep Ukraine out. But that is not who Putin is and never will be. He is guilty of the soft bigotry of low expectations toward his people and prefers to turn Russia into a mafia-run petro-state — all the better to steal from.
So Putin is now fighting human nature among his own young people and his neighbors — who both want more E.U. and less Putinism. To put it in market terms, Putin is long oil and short history. He has made himself steadily richer and Russia steadily more reliant on natural resources rather than its human ones. History will not be kind to him — especially if energy prices ever collapse.
So spare me the Putin-body-slammed-Obama prattle. This isn’t All-Star Wrestling. The fact that Putin has seized Crimea, a Russian-speaking zone of Ukraine, once part of Russia, where many of the citizens prefer to be part of Russia and where Russia has a major naval base, is not like taking Poland. I support economic and diplomatic sanctions to punish Russia for its violation of international norms and making clear that harsher sanctions, even military aid for Kiev, would ensue should Putin try to bite off more of Ukraine. But we need to remember that that little corner of the world is always going to mean more, much more, to Putin than to us, and we should refrain from making threats on which we’re not going to deliver.
What disturbs me about Crimea is the larger trend it fits into, that Putinism used to just be a threat to Russia but is now becoming a threat to global stability. I opposed expanding NATO toward Russia after the Cold War, when Russia was at its most democratic and least threatening. It remains one of the dumbest things we’ve ever done and, of course, laid the groundwork for Putin’s rise.
For a long time, Putin has exploited the humiliation and anti-Western attitudes NATO expansion triggered to gain popularity, but this seems to have become so fundamental to his domestic politics that it has locked him into a zero-sum relationship with the West that makes it hard to see how we collaborate with him in more serious trouble spots, like Syria or Iran. President Bashar al-Assad of Syria is engaged in monstrous, genocidal behavior that also threatens the stability of the Middle East. But Putin stands by him. At least half the people of Ukraine long to be part of Europe, but he treated that understandable desire as a NATO plot and quickly resorted to force.
I don’t want to go to war with Putin, but it is time we expose his real weakness and our real strength. That, though, requires a long-term strategy — not just fulminating on “Meet the Press.” It requires going after the twin pillars of his regime: oil and gas. Just as the oil glut of the 1980s, partly engineered by the Saudis, brought down global oil prices to a level that helped collapse Soviet Communism, we could do the same today to Putinism by putting the right long-term policies in place. That is by investing in the facilities to liquefy and export our natural gas bounty (provided it is extracted at the highest environmental standards) and making Europe, which gets 30 percent of its gas from Russia, more dependent on us instead. I’d also raise our gasoline tax, put in place a carbon tax and a national renewable energy portfolio standard — all of which would also help lower the global oil price (and make us stronger, with cleaner air, less oil dependence and more innovation).
You want to frighten Putin? Just announce those steps. But you know the story, the tough guys in Washington who want to take on Putin would rather ask 1 percent of Americans — the military and their families — to make the ultimate sacrifice than have all of us make a small sacrifice in the form of tiny energy price increases. Those tough guys who thump their chests in Congress but run for the hills if you ask them to vote for a 10-cent increase in the gasoline tax that would actually boost our leverage, they’ll never rise to this challenge. We’ll do anything to expose Putin’s weakness; anything that isn’t hard. And you wonder why Putin holds us in contempt?
Read the whole story

· · ·

N.S.A. Director Says Snowden Leaks Hamper Efforts Against Cyberattacks

1 Share
WASHINGTON — Gen. Keith B. Alexander, the director of the National Security Agency, said Tuesday that the leaks by the former agency contractor Edward J. Snowden had slowed the effort to protect the country against cyberattacks on Wall Street and other civilian targets.
General Alexander was speaking at a conference at Georgetown University in one of his last public speeches before he leaves the agency this spring. He predicted that the disclosure of information relating to government surveillance programs would force Congress to act on changes to the rules governing the bulk collection of telephone records before it tries again to pass legislation that would mandate the way private companies protect against cyberintrusions, and delineate what information they share about attacks with the government.
The departing N.S.A. director and commander of the United States Cyber Command, which runs the cyberwarfare and defense operations for the Pentagon, described as largely incomplete what he called one of the agency’s biggest tasks: finding a way to protect America’s most vulnerable civilian targets.
“An attack on Wall Street or an exploit against Wall Street, N.S.A. and Cyber Command would probably not see that,” General Alexander said. “We have no capability there.”
Outside experts and the documents revealed so far by Mr. Snowden, who is still in exile in Moscow, suggest that the N.S.A. would, in fact, most likely see some attacks by monitoring the tens of thousands of “implants” it has placed in foreign computers suspected of being involved in cyberstrikes on the United States.
But it is unclear what could be done to prevent them; there is no agreement inside the federal government yet about whether Cyber Command could launch a pre-emptive attack. Under a presidential directive updated by President Obama in 2011, only the president himself can authorize the use of an American cyberweapon, unless it is being used in an act of pure defense of national targets.
“We have capabilities to defend the nation,” General Alexander said, “but we don’t have the ability to share that back and forth.”
Before the Snowden revelations, General Alexander often spoke of establishing large data filtering systems that could detect malicious attacks in real time. But that proposal went nowhere, and it would be almost impossible to convince critics, who have become increasingly concerned about the way the government carries out its surveillance programs, that the government was using those filters only to weed out attacks, rather than to listen to, read or manipulate incoming information.
Several efforts to pass cybersecurity legislation requiring private companies to erect certain kinds of defenses have failed partly because of industry objections to the high costs of such systems and to the potential for government to delve into their private data.
General Alexander argued Tuesday for something more modest: laws that would allow the companies to share data with the government about suspected incoming attacks. Currently that is prohibited in many cases by privacy laws.
Any such legislation, however, would have to come after Congress considers changes in the way the government gains access to telephone records. Mr. Obama announced in January that he wanted to get the government out of the business of holding on to the vast databases of all calls made across American telephone networks, but it is not clear what alternative would be set up so that government officials could gain access to that data with the approval of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court.
Changes to that program, often called the “business records” or “215” program because of its section number in existing legislation, would require congressional action.
Read the whole story

· · ·

As E.U. Meets, Crimea Moves to Hold Vote on Joining Russia

1 Share
LONDON — The European Union was meeting in emergency session in Brussels on Thursday to debate the crisis in Ukraine, reinforcing its support for the fledgling government in Kiev even as it punished the Russian-backed former president, Viktor F. Yanukovych, with measures to freeze his assets and those of 17 of his closest aides and family members.
But pro-Russian forces — and Moscow itself — seemed to be pressing ahead undeterred with preparations to tighten their grip on the southern Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, where Ukrainian military installations are under a tight blockade.
The Crimean Parliament said a referendum would be held on March 16 offering citizens of the region a choice of remaining part of Ukraine or joining the Russian Federation.
Indeed, Crimean lawmakers said on Thursday that they had unanimously approved a law seeking membership in the Russian Federation. The impact of the move and the consequences of its timing, however, appeared unclear and Ukrainian authorities seemed certain to dispute its legality.
In Moscow, Dmitri S. Peskov, a spokesman for President Vladmir V. Putin, was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying the Kremlin had been informed of the development but had no further comment. Prime Minister Dmitri A. Medvedev said that Russia would simplify the procedures for people who have lived in Russia or the former Soviet Union to secure Russian citizenship.
In Brussels, the 28-nation European Union on Thursday revealed the names of 18 people, including Mr. Yanukovych, targeted for asset freezes, holding them responsible for the embezzlement of state funds. It did not specify where the assets were held, but the Official Journal of the European Union, which lists the body’s decisions, said that “all funds and economic resources belonging to, owned, held or controlled by” Mr. Yanukovych, two of his sons and his associates on European Union soil “shall be frozen.”
The measures came a day after an effort by the United States to broker the first face-to-face diplomatic meeting between Russia and Ukraine failed in Paris, although Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, announced that more discussions would be held in the days ahead.
Their remarks seemed to leave open the possibility of easing one of the most serious East-West confrontations since the Cold War. But early on Thursday, Mr. Lavrov was quoted as saying that Western measures to involve international bodies such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the NATO-Russia Council were counterproductive.
“I want to very briefly say that we had a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on the situation in Ukraine in relation to the actions that our partners are trying to take via the O.S.C.E, the NATO-Russia Council and other international organizations — action that does not help create an atmosphere for dialogue and constructive cooperation,” Mr. Lavrov said in a statement issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry on Thursday.
The statement added that the “threats and ultimatums” made it difficult to reach “honest arrangements” that would help stabilize the situation in Ukraine, apparently referring to blistering statements by Mr. Kerry and other officials.
The maneuvering came as European leaders converged on Brussels for a meeting that will also be attended by Ukraine’s interim prime minister, Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk, in a display of diplomatic support. The gathering follows promises of some $15 billion in financial and economic support from the European Union for the new government in Ukraine.
Measures to freeze the assets of 18 members of the ousted government of Mr. Yanukovych came into force immediately, targeting figures including former ministers of the interior and justice, the prosecutor general, the head of the security services and two sons of Mr. Yanukovych, according to the European Union’s Official Journal. The list of people affected by the measures also included former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and his son.
British officials said on Thursday that the European leaders were likely to divide on whether to threaten Mr. Putin or encourage him to seek a diplomatic outcome. Earlier this week, European officials urged Russia to pull its forces back to the bases it maintains in Crimea under a longstanding agreement with Ukraine.
Europe “needs to send a very clear message to the Russian government that what has happened is unacceptable and should have consequences,” said Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain, one of those pressing for a tougher posture, even though many European nations, including his, have deep economic and financial ties with Russia.
The talks in Brussels came as Russian and pro-Russian forces maintained a blockade of Ukrainian military facilities in Crimea and as Western officials expressed concern at the possibility of a Russian move into the east of the country.
In Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, a tug of war between rival protesters continued Thursday when the Ukrainian police ordered pro-Moscow demonstrators, including Pavel Gubarev, the so-called people’s governor, to leave the city’s administration building. Mr. Gubarev went to an undisclosed location and dozens of his supporters were detained without charges, news reports from the city said.
The police drew up heavy trucks at entrances to the building to prevent the pro-Moscow camp from trying to retake it, witnesses said, as the Ukrainian flag was hoisted anew. The pro-Russian demonstrators have been urging that ties with the national government in Kiev be cut.
Read the whole story

· · · ·

President Putin's Fiction: 10 False Claims about Ukraine

1 Share
About 79,000 results
    1. Kyiv Post ‎- 4 hours ago
      Below are 10 of President Vladimir Putin's recent claims justifying Russian aggression in the Ukraine, followed by the facts that his assertions ...
      Voice of America‎ - 9 hours ago

  1. President Putin's Fiction10 False Claims about Ukraine

    <a href="http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/.../222988.htm" rel="nofollow">www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/.../222988.htm</a>
    United States Department of State
    13 hours ago - As Russia spins a false narrative to justify its illegal actions in Ukraine, the world has not seen such startling Russian fiction since Dostoyevsky ...

  2. US Accuses Putin of 'False Claims' on Ukraine

    <a href="http://www.voanews.com/con" rel="nofollow">www.voanews.com/con</a>tent/...putin...false-claims...ukra...
    10 hours ago - The "fact sheet" is titled "President Putin's Fiction10 False Claims about Ukraine." Observers say its publication is a notable departure from ...

10 False Claims about Ukraine

1 Share
As Russia spins a false narrative to justify its illegal actions in Ukraine, the world has not seen such startling Russian fiction since Dostoyevsky wrote, “The formula ‘two plus two equals five’ is not without its attractions.”
Below are 10 of President Vladimir Putin’s recent claims justifying Russian aggression in the Ukraine, followed by the facts that his assertions ignore or distort.
1. Mr. Putin says:  Russian forces in Crimea are only acting to protect Russian military assets. It is “citizens’ defense groups,” not Russian forces, who have seized infrastructure and military facilities in Crimea.
The Facts:  Strong evidence suggests that members of Russian security services are at the heart of the highly organized anti-Ukraine forces in Crimea. While these units wear uniforms without insignia, they drive vehicles with Russian military license plates and freely identify themselves as Russian security forces when asked by the international media and the Ukrainian military. Moreover, these individuals are armed with weapons not generally available to civilians.
2. Mr. Putin says:  Russia’s actions fall within the scope of the 1997 Friendship Treaty between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.
The Facts:  The 1997 agreement requires Russia to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, which have given them operational control of Crimea, are in clear violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.
3. Mr. Putin says:  The opposition failed to implement the February 21 agreement with former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.
The Facts:  The February 21 agreement laid out a plan in which the Rada, or Parliament, would pass a bill to return Ukraine to its 2004 Constitution, thus returning the country to a constitutional system centered around its parliament. Under the terms of the agreement, Yanukovych was to sign the enacting legislation within 24 hours and bring the crisis to a peaceful conclusion. Yanukovych refused to keep his end of the bargain. Instead, he packed up his home and fled, leaving behind evidence of wide-scale corruption.
4. Mr. Putin says:  Ukraine’s government is illegitimate. Yanukovych is still the legitimate leader of Ukraine.
The Facts:  On March 4, President Putin himself acknowledged the reality that Yanukovych “has no political future.” After Yanukovych fled Ukraine, even his own Party of Regions turned against him, voting to confirm his withdrawal from office and to support the new government. Ukraine’s new government was approved by the democratically elected Ukrainian Parliament, with 371 votes – more than an 82% majority. The interim government of Ukraine is a government of the people, which will shepherd the country toward democratic elections on May 25th – elections that will allow all Ukrainians to have a voice in the future of their country.
5. Mr. Putin says:  There is a humanitarian crisis and hundreds of thousands are fleeing Ukraine to Russia and seeking asylum.
The Facts:  To date, there is absolutely no evidence of a humanitarian crisis. Nor is there evidence of a flood of asylum-seekers fleeing Ukraine for Russia. International organizations on the ground have investigated by talking with Ukrainian border guards, who also refuted these claims. Independent journalists observing the border have also reported no such flood of refugees.
6. Mr. Putin says:  Ethnic Russians are under threat.
The Facts:  Outside of Russian press and Russian state television, there are no credible reports of any ethnic Russians being under threat. The new Ukrainian government placed a priority on peace and reconciliation from the outset. President Oleksandr Turchynov refused to sign legislation limiting the use of the Russian language at regional level. Ethnic Russians and Russian speakers have filed petitions attesting that their communities have not experienced threats. Furthermore, since the new government was established, calm has returned to Kyiv. There has been no surge in crime, no looting, and no retribution against political opponents.
7. Mr. Putin says:  Russian bases are under threat.
The Facts:  Russian military facilities were and remain secure, and the new Ukrainian government has pledged to abide by all existing international agreements, including those covering Russian bases. It is Ukrainian bases in Crimea that are under threat from Russian military action.
8. Mr. Putin says:  There have been mass attacks on churches and synagogues in southern and eastern Ukraine.
The Facts:  Religious leaders in the country and international religious freedom advocates active in Ukraine have said there have been no incidents of attacks on churches. All of Ukraine’s church leaders, including representatives of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Moscow Patriarchate, have expressed support for the new political leadership, calling for national unity and a period of healing. Jewish groups in southern and eastern Ukraine report that they have not seen an increase in anti-Semitic incidents.
9. Mr. Putin says:  Kyiv is trying to destabilize Crimea.
The Facts:  Ukraine’s interim government has acted with restraint and sought dialogue. Russian troops, on the other hand, have moved beyond their bases to seize political objectives and infrastructure in Crimea. The government in Kyiv immediately sent the former Chief of Defense to defuse the situation. Petro Poroshenko, the latest government emissary to pursue dialogue in Crimea, was prevented from entering the Crimean Rada.
10. Mr. Putin says:  The Rada is under the influence of extremists or terrorists.
The Facts:  The Rada is the most representative institution in Ukraine. Recent legislation has passed with large majorities, including from representatives of eastern Ukraine. Far-right wing ultranationalist groups, some of which were involved in open clashes with security forces during the EuroMaidan protests, are not represented in the Rada. There is no indication that the Ukrainian government would pursue discriminatory policies; on the contrary, they have publicly stated exactly the opposite.
Read the whole story

· · · ·

Crimea votes to join Russia as EU leaders push Ukraine diplomacy

1 Share

SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine (Reuters) - Crimea's parliament voted to join Russia on Thursday and its Moscow-backed government set a referendum within 10 days on the decision in a dramatic escalation of the crisis over the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula.

The sudden acceleration of moves to formally bring the Crimea, which has an ethnic Russian majority and has effectively been seized by Russian forces, under Moscow's rule came as European Union leaders gathered for an emergency summit to seek ways to pressure Russia to back down and accept mediation.

The Crimean parliament voted unanimously "to enter into the Russian Federation with the rights of a subject of the Russian Federation", the RIA news agency reported. Its vice premier said a referendum on the status would take place on March 16.

The announcements, which diplomats said could not have been made without Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval, raised the stakes in the most serious east-west confrontation since the end of the Cold War.

EU leaders had been set to warn but not sanction Russia over its military intervention in Ukraine after Moscow rebuffed Western diplomatic efforts to persuade it to pull forces in Crimea back to their bases. It was not immediately clear what impact the Crimean moves would have.

French President Francois Hollande told reporters on arrival at the summit: "There will be the strongest possible pressure on Russia to begin lowering the tension and in the pressure there is, of course, eventual recourse to sanctions."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov refused to meet his new Ukrainian counterpart or to launch a "contact group" to seek a solution to the crisis at talks in Paris on Wednesday despite arm-twisting by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and European colleagues. The two men will meet again in Rome on Thursday.

Tension remained high in Ukraine's southern Crimea region, where a senior United Nations envoy was surrounded by a pro-Russian crowd, threatened and forced to get back on his plane and leave the country.

The EU summit in Brussels seemed unlikely to adopt more than symbolic measures against Russia, Europe's biggest gas supplier, because neither industrial powerhouse Germany nor financial centre Britain is keen to start down that road.

U.S. READY TO SANCTION

The United States has said it is ready to impose sanctions such as visa bans, asset freezes on individual Russian officials and restrictions on business ties within days rather than weeks.

Russia's ruble currency weakened further on Thursday despite central bank intervention due to what analysts at VTB Capital called the political risk premium.

The short, informal EU summit will mostly be dedicated to displaying support for Ukraine's new pro-Western government, represented at the Brussels talks by Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk, who will attend the lunch although Kiev is neither an EU member nor a recognized candidate for membership.

After meeting European Parliament President Martin Schulz, Yatseniuk appealed to Russia to respond to mediation efforts to end the crisis.

The European Commission announced an aid package of up to 11 billion euros ($15 billion) for Ukraine over the next couple of years provided it reaches a deal with the International Monetary Fund, entailing painful reforms like ending gas subsidies.

Diplomats said that at most, the 28-nation EU would condemn Russia's so far bloodless seizure of Ukraine's Black Sea province and suspend talks with Moscow on visa liberalization and economic cooperation, while threatening further measures if President Vladimir Putin does not accept mediation efforts soon.

But they will hold back from further reaching steps both in hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough to ease tensions in Ukraine and out of fear of a tit-for-tat trade war with Russia, a major economic partner of Europe.

France has a deal to sell warships to Russia that it is so far not prepared to cancel, London's banks have profited from facilitating Russian investment, and German companies have $22 billion invested in Russia.

Before the summit, European members of the Group of Eight major economies will meet separately, diplomats said, in an apparent effort to coordinate positions towards Russia, due to host the next G8 summit in Olympic venue Sochi in June. They have so far stopped participating in preparatory meetings and Canada has said G7 countries may meet soon without Russia.

ILLEGITIMATE

The crisis began in November when Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, under strong Russian pressure, turned his back on a far reaching trade deal with the EU and accepted a $15 billion bailout from Moscow. That prompted three months of street protests leading to the overthrow of Yanukovich on February 22.

Moscow denounced the events as an illegitimate coup and refused to recognize the new Ukrainian authorities.

Russia kept the door ajar for more diplomacy on its own terms, announcing on Thursday a meeting of former Soviet states in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including Ukraine, for April 4 and saying it would be preceded by contacts between Russian and Ukrainian diplomats.

Lavrov said attempts by Western countries to take action over the Ukraine crisis via democracy watchdog OSCE and the NATO military alliance were not helpful.

"I want to very briefly say that we had a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on the situation in Ukraine in relation to the actions that our partners are trying to take via the OSCE, the NATO-Russia council and other international organizations - action that does not help create an atmosphere for dialogue and constructive cooperation," he said in a statement issued by the ministry on Thursday.

In a move that may alarm some of Russia's neighbors and the West, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced steps to ease handing out passports to native Russian speakers who have lived in Russia or the former Soviet Union.

Putin has cited the threat to Russian citizens to justify military action in both Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine now.

After a day of high-stakes diplomacy in Paris on Wednesday, Lavrov refused to talk to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchitsya, whose new government is not recognized by Moscow.

As he left the French Foreign Ministry, Lavrov was asked if he had met his Ukrainian counterpart. "Who is that?" the Russian minister asked.

He stuck to Putin's line - ridiculed by the West - that Moscow does not command the troops without national insignia which have taken control of Crimea, besieging Ukrainian forces, and hence cannot order them back to bases.

Kerry said afterwards he had never expected to get Lavrov and Deshchitsya into the same room right away, but diplomats said France and Germany had tried to achieve that.

Western diplomats said there was still hope that once Lavrov had reported back to Putin, Russia would accept the idea of a "contact group" involving both Moscow and Kiev as well as the United States and European powers to seek a solution.

The European Union formally announced it had frozen the assets of ousted Ukrainian president Yanukovich and 17 other officials, including former prime minister Mykola Azarov, suspected of human rights violations and misuse of state funds.

"RUSSIA! RUSSIA!"

In an awkward coincidence, just as EU leaders were gathering in Brussels, German Economy Minister and Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel traveled to Moscow for talks with his Russian counterpart and Putin.

Reflecting concern about how the long-planned trip might be seen in the midst of the Ukraine crisis, Gabriel dropped at the last minute plans to take along German industrialists with him. Germany has been accused in some quarters of soft-pedaling on sanctions in the light of its close economic ties to Russia.

Officials close to Gabriel said he was hoping to keep a low public profile on the trip, but if he meets Putin, as scheduled, he may have to appear in front of TV cameras.

U.N. special envoy Robert Serry had to abandon a mission to Crimea after being stopped by armed men and besieged inside a cafe by a hostile crowd shouting "Russia! Russia!" The Dutch diplomat flew to Istanbul after the incident.

In eastern Ukraine, a pro-Russian crowd in Donetsk, Yanukovich's home town, recaptured the regional administration building they had occupied before being ejected by police. But police loyal to the new authorities in Kiev raised the Ukrainian flag over the building again on Thursday.

Putin has said Russia reserves the right to intervene militarily in other areas of Ukraine if Russian interests or the lives of Russians are in danger.

Dropping diplomatic niceties on Wednesday, the U.S. State Department published a "fact sheet" entitled "President Putin's Fiction: 10 False Claims about Ukraine."

"As Russia spins a false narrative to justify its illegal actions in Ukraine, the world has not seen such startling Russian fiction since Dostoyevsky wrote, 'The formula "two plus two equals five" is not without its attractions,'" the State Department said in the document.

(Additional reporting by Lidia Kelly in Moscow, Tim Heritage in Kiev, John Irish and Lesley Wroughtonin Paris; Writing by Paul Taylor; editing by Anna Willard)
Read the whole story

· · · · · · ·
Next Page of Stories
Loading...
Page 2

Russia TV Presenter Quits On Air In Protest

1 Share
A presenter for a Russian government-funded TV channel has resigned live on air, after accusing the station of "whitewashing the actions" of Vladimir Putin.
Liz Wahl, a US anchor for Russia Today America, told viewers during the broadcast: "I'm proud to be an American and believe in disseminating the truth and that is why after this newscast, I'm resigning."
Her grandparents fled to the US as refugees during the 1956 Hungarian Revolution to escape the Soviet Union.
Moscow has been accused of invading Ukraine's Crimea region after months of pro-European protests there saw the nation's pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, ousted.
Russia denies this, claiming the troops operating there are "self-defence" forces who do not answer to Moscow.
In a statement on Ms Wahl's actions, Russia Today said: "When a journalist disagrees with the editorial position of his or her organisation, the usual course of action is to address those grievances with the editor, and, if they cannot be resolved, to quit like a professional.
"But when someone makes a big public show of a personal decision, it is nothing more than a self-promotional stunt.
"We wish Liz the best of luck on her chosen path."
Ms Wahl later tweeted: "I am grateful and humbled by the outpouring of support I have received."
Another host from the channel criticised the actions of pro-Russian forces earlier this week.
Abby Martin labelled the intervention "wrong" and said she was "strongly against" military involvement.
The channel responded by saying Ms Martin "does not possess a deep knowledge of reality of the situation in Crimea" and that she would be sent there to "make up her own mind from the epicentre of the story".
:: Watch Sky News live on television, on Sky channel 501, Virgin Media channel 602, Freeview channel 82 and Freesat channel 202.

Ukraine Accuses Russia Of Stoking Tensions

1 Share

US Issues Rebuttal Of 'Putin's Ukraine Fiction'

Updated: 8:29am UK, Thursday 06 March 2014
Amid diplomatic efforts to defuse the crisis in Ukraine, the State Department has taken the unusual step of issuing a point-by-point rebuttal of Vladimir Putin's assertions.
It bluntly spoke of "President Putin's Fiction" and even quoted Russian novelist Fyodor Dostoyevsky, saying: "The world has not seen such startling Russian fiction since Dostoyevsky wrote, 'The formula 'two plus two equals five' is not without its attractions'."
The "10 False Claims" statement follows a defiant press conference by the Russian president two days ago.
Here is the full text of the US rebuttal:
As Russia spins a false narrative to justify its illegal actions in Ukraine, the world has not seen such startling Russian fiction since Dostoyevsky wrote, “The formula ‘two plus two equals five’ is not without its attractions.”
Below are 10 of President Vladimir Putin’s recent claims justifying Russian aggression in the Ukraine, followed by the facts that his assertions ignore or distort.
1. Mr Putin says: Russian forces in Crimea are only acting to protect Russian military assets. It is "citizens’ defense groups," not Russian forces, who have seized infrastructure and military facilities in Crimea.
The Facts: Strong evidence suggests that members of Russian security services are at the heart of the highly organized anti-Ukraine forces in Crimea. While these units wear uniforms without insignia, they drive vehicles with Russian military license plates and freely identify themselves as Russian security forces when asked by the international media and the Ukrainian military. Moreover, these individuals are armed with weapons not generally available to civilians.
2. Mr Putin says: Russia’s actions fall within the scope of the 1997 Friendship Treaty between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.
The Facts: The 1997 agreement requires Russia to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, which have given them operational control of Crimea, are in clear violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.
3. Mr Putin says: The opposition failed to implement the February 21 agreement with former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.
The Facts: The February 21 agreement laid out a plan in which the Rada, or Parliament, would pass a bill to return Ukraine to its 2004 Constitution, thus returning the country to a constitutional system centered around its parliament. Under the terms of the agreement, Yanukovych was to sign the enacting legislation within 24 hours and bring the crisis to a peaceful conclusion. Yanukovych refused to keep his end of the bargain. Instead, he packed up his home and fled, leaving behind evidence of wide-scale corruption.
4. Mr Putin says: Ukraine’s government is illegitimate. Yanukovych is still the legitimate leader of Ukraine.
The Facts: On March 4, President Putin himself acknowledged the reality that Yanukovych "has no political future." After Yanukovych fled Ukraine, even his own Party of Regions turned against him, voting to confirm his withdrawal from office and to support the new government. Ukraine’s new government was approved by the democratically elected Ukrainian Parliament, with 371 votes - more than an 82% majority. The interim government of Ukraine is a government of the people, which will shepherd the country toward democratic elections on May 25th - elections that will allow all Ukrainians to have a voice in the future of their country.
5. Mr Putin says: There is a humanitarian crisis and hundreds of thousands are fleeing Ukraine to Russia and seeking asylum.
The Facts: To date, there is absolutely no evidence of a humanitarian crisis. Nor is there evidence of a flood of asylum-seekers fleeing Ukraine for Russia. International organizations on the ground have investigated by talking with Ukrainian border guards, who also refuted these claims. Independent journalists observing the border have also reported no such flood of refugees.
6. Mr Putin says: Ethnic Russians are under threat.
The Facts: Outside of Russian press and Russian state television, there are no credible reports of any ethnic Russians being under threat. The new Ukrainian government placed a priority on peace and reconciliation from the outset. President Oleksandr Turchynov refused to sign legislation limiting the use of the Russian language at regional level. Ethnic Russians and Russian speakers have filed petitions attesting that their communities have not experienced threats. Furthermore, since the new government was established, calm has returned to Kyiv. There has been no surge in crime, no looting, and no retribution against political opponents.
7. Mr Putin says: Russian bases are under threat.
The Facts: Russian military facilities were and remain secure, and the new Ukrainian government has pledged to abide by all existing international agreements, including those covering Russian bases. It is Ukrainian bases in Crimea that are under threat from Russian military action.
8. Mr Putin says: There have been mass attacks on churches and synagogues in southern and eastern Ukraine.
The Facts: Religious leaders in the country and international religious freedom advocates active in Ukraine have said there have been no incidents of attacks on churches. All of Ukraine’s church leaders, including representatives of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Moscow Patriarchate, have expressed support for the new political leadership, calling for national unity and a period of healing. Jewish groups in southern and eastern Ukraine report that they have not seen an increase in anti-Semitic incidents.
9. Mr Putin says: Kyiv is trying to destabilize Crimea.
The Facts: Ukraine’s interim government has acted with restraint and sought dialogue. Russian troops, on the other hand, have moved beyond their bases to seize political objectives and infrastructure in Crimea. The government in Kyiv immediately sent the former Chief of Defense to defuse the situation. Petro Poroshenko, the latest government emissary to pursue dialogue in Crimea, was prevented from entering the Crimean Rada.
10. Mr Putin says: The Rada is under the influence of extremists or terrorists.
The Facts: The Rada is the most representative institution in Ukraine. Recent legislation has passed with large majorities, including from representatives of eastern Ukraine. Far-right wing ultranationalist groups, some of which were involved in open clashes with security forces during the EuroMaidan protests, are not represented in the Rada. There is no indication that the Ukrainian government would pursue discriminatory policies; on the contrary, they have publicly stated exactly the opposite.
:: Watch Sky News live on television, on Sky channel 501, Virgin Media channel 602, Freeview channel 82 and Freesat channel 202.
Read the whole story

· · · · ·

Ukraine's Crimea to Hold Referendum on Joining Russia

1 Share
March 6, 2014 5:19 a.m. ET
Russia's national flag and Crimea's regional flag are seen on a building of Council of Ministers in Simferopol on March 5. Reuters
The local government of Ukraine's breakaway territory of Crimea said Thursday that it will hold a regionwide referendum on whether to formally secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation.
The pro-Russian government also pushed forward the date for the vote by two weeks to March 16. Prior descriptions of the referendum had been more vague, saying the vote would explore the issues of autonomy from Kiev.
The region's parliament said in a statement that the move was being taken "as a the result of the unconstitutional coup" that put a new government in place in Kiev last month and the "flagrant violation of the laws of Ukraine" by nationalist forces.
Shortly after issuing the announcement, the parliament voted to join Russia.
Write to Lukas I. Alpert at lukas.alpert@wsj.com
Read the whole story

· ·

Верховный комиссар ОБСЕ не увидела притеснения прав нацменьшинств в Крыму

1 Share
Верховный комиссар ОБСЕ по вопросам нацменьшинств Астрид Торс после посещения Автономной республики Крым заявила, что не получила фактов притеснения прав нацменьшинств.
"По поводу какого-либо физического насилия - никто из тех, с кем я общалась в Крыму, не сказал о том, что такие явления имеют место", - сказала она на пресс-конференции в четверг в Киеве.
Она также отметила, что в Украине не изменилось законодательство относительно защиты прав нацменьшинств и языковой политики, закон о языках продолжает действовать, он не отменен

Ночью послов Литвы и Латвии не пустили в штаб ВМС в Севастополе

1 Share
Послів Литви та Латвії сьогодні вночі не пустили до штабу ВМС у Севастополі. Вони приїхали зі спец-місією і хотіли поговорити саме із командувачем, Сергієм Гайдуком, звернення якого ми щойно чули. Але біля входу в будівлю дорогу дипломатам перегородили озброєні люди. Як усе було бачив наш спецкор Андрій Цаплієнко.
Штаб ВМС України. Вхід заблокували. Розмова триває на підвищених тонах. Аргументи дипломатів - ми маємо поговорити з командувачем, але контр-адмірал до нас не виходить.
Аргіта Даудзе, посол Латвії В Україні:
- Нам было интересно послушать мнение господ и дам, которые вот собрались возле украинской базы ВМС. Я так понимаю - внутрь вы не попали? - Нет, не попали, но мы подождем, пока мы, не знаю, разойдутся... Или по-иному, и тогда встретимся с контр-адмиралом.
Петрас Вайтієкунас, посол Литви в Україні:
- Люди выражают свое мнение, не позволили нам внутрь войти, но мы немножко поговорили.
Чого саме добиваються пікетувальники, спробували дізнатися у одного з них.
Сергій Стьопін, екскурсовод:
- Мы - русские! Россия - это наш первый помощник и защитник. Если будут такие события - будем просить помощи у России - что мы и делаем. И, слава Богу, помогают.
Як тільки посли, так і не здійснивши свою місію, відійшли назад, на брамі з'явилися автоматники.
Андрій Цаплієнко, Володимир Дєдов, Новини, телеканал Інтер

В МИД РФ считают невозможным членство Украины в НАТО

1 Share
Украина не будет членом НАТО, убеждены в Москве.
"Я думаю, что этого не произойдет в любом случае. Это невозможно", - сказал замглавы МИД РФ Василий Небензя.
"Не только мы, но и на Западе понимают, что означало бы вступление Украины в НАТО для России", - отметил он.
Напомним, генеральный секретарь НАТО Андерс Фог Расмуссен заявил, что в НАТО готовыразвивать отношения с Украиной в этом направлении. Однак решение относительно вариантов дальнейшего взаимодействия Украины с НАТО остается за украинцами.
Напомним, в Верховной раде Украины зарегистрирован проект закона "О внесении изменений в некоторые законы Украины (относительно обеспечения и гарантирования национальной безопасности Украины)", который предусматривает отмену внеблокового статуса страны и может позволить вступление Украины в НАТО.
Next Page of Stories
Loading...
Page 3

НАТО временно приостанавливает военное сотрудничество с Россией | Подробности-ТВ | Видео

1 Share
Видео 2.4 Мб: Альянс запропонував включити Україну у свої багатонаціональні проекти. Канал "Інтер"
06 марта 2014 | 09:22
НАТО тимчасово припиняє військову співпрацю з Росією. Про це заявив Генсек Альянсу Андерс Фог Расмуссен після засідання Ради "НАТО - Росія". Расмуссен вкотре підкреслив, що Москва порушує суверенітет і цілість України, а також свої міжнародні зобов'язання. На його думку, дії Москви становлять серйозну загрозу.

Страны "Большой семерки" отказались от участия в саммите G-8 в России

1 Share
Лидеры стран "Большой семерки" (Канада, Франция, Германия, Италия, Япония, Великобритания и США), а также Европейского Союза и Европейской комиссии отказались от участия в саммите стран "Большой восьмерки" (G-8), проведение которого запланировано на июнь в России, которая является членом G-8. Об этом говорится в заявлении лидеров "Большой семерки", опубликованном на сайте Белого дома.
"Мы, лидеры Канады, Франции, Германии, Италии, Японии, Великобритании и США, президент Европейского Союза и президент Европейской комиссии объединились сегодня, чтобы осудить явное нарушение Россией суверенитета и территориальной целостности Украины, в нарушение обязательств России в соответствии с Уставом ООН и соглашения с Украиной от 1997 года", - говорится в заявлении.
Страны призывают Россию решать любые текущие проблемы с безопасностью или с якобы нарушением прав человека путем прямых переговоров и/или с помощью международного наблюдения либо посредничества под эгидой ООН или Организации по безопасности и сотрудничеству в Европе (ОБСЕ).
Страны "Большой семерки" готовы этому способствовать, а также призывают все заинтересованные стороны вести себя осторожно, чтобы уменьшить возникшую напряженность.
Отмечается, что действия России в Украине также нарушают принципы и ценности, по которым работают G-7 и G-8.
"Таким образом, мы решили пока приостановить наше участие в подготовке запланированного саммита G-8 в Сочи в июне, пока ситуация не станет такой, когда G-8 в состоянии будет вести содержательную дискуссию", - говорится в заявлении.
Лидеры G-7 также подчеркивают свое единство в поддержке суверенитета Украины и ее территориальной целостности и права выбирать свое будущее.
"Мы обязуемся поддерживать Украину в ее усилиях по восстановлению единства, стабильности и политического и экономического процветания", - отмечается в заявлении.
С этой целью страны планируют поддерживать работу Украины с Международным валютным фондом для обсуждения новой программы реформ.
Поддержка МВФ, по мнению G-7, будет иметь решающее значение в привлечении дополнительной помощи от Мирового банка и других международных финансовых институтов, ЕС, и других источников.
Как сообщалось, 1 марта Совет Федерации России разрешил президенту России Владимиру Путину использование Вооруженных сил России на территории Украины.
2 марта представитель ведомства канцлера Германии Ангелы Меркель Штеффен Зайберт сообщил, что Путин согласился на предложение канцлера относительно политического разрешения конфликта в Крыму.
Read the whole story

· ·

Падение рубля в России бьет исторические рекорды

1 Share
Курс евро в первые минуты на Московской бирже торгов 3 марта вырос до 51,2 рубля (около 13,72 гривны). Доллар подорожал, впервые превысив отметку в 37 рублей (9,92 гривны).
Таким образом, курс американской валюты побил исторический рекорд, зарегистрированный на биржевых торгах в России в марте 2009 года - 36,7295 рубля (9,85 гривны).
Ослабление рубля, которое началось еще в конце прошлого года, резко ускорилось 3 марта на фоне опасений из-за последствий возможного ввода российских войск на территорию Украины. 1 марта президент РФ Владимир Путин попросил у Совета Федерации разрешения на ввод вооруженных сил, и верхняя палата парламента одобрила военную операцию. Российские власти оправдывают возможное вторжение на территорию Украины необходимостью защитить собственные интересы в Крыму и обеспечить безопасность граждан РФ.
Напомним, послы США и Канады покинули Москву, чем прервали сотрудничество с Россией в рамках подготовки к саммиту G8.
Впоследствии лидеры стран "Большой семерки" (Канада, Франция, Германия, Италия, Япония, Великобритания и США), а также Европейского Союза и Европейской комиссии отказались от участия в саммите стран "Большой восьмерки" (G-8).

Парламент АРК назначил на 16 марта референдум о вхождении в РФ

1 Share
Референдум о статусе Автономной республики Крым переносится с 30 на 16 марта.
Постановление "О проведении общекрымского референдума 16 марта" в четверг принял Верховный Совет автономии на внеочередном пленарном заседании, сообщает пресс-центр крымского парламента.
Верховный Совет АРК постановил: 1. Войти в состав Российской Федерации в качестве субъекта Российской Федерации. 2. Назначить на 16 марта 2014 года общекрымский референдум (включая город Севастополь), на который вынести следующие альтернативные вопросы: 1) Вы за воссоединение Крыма с Россией на правах субъекта Российской Федерации? 2) Вы за восстановление действия Конституции Республики Крым 1992 года и за статус Крыма как части Украины?
В документе поясняется, что вопрос, получивший большинство голосов, считается выражающим прямое волеизъявление населения Крыма.
Установлено, что бюллетени для голосования на общекрымском референдуме печатаются на русском, украинском и крымскотатарском языках.
Верховный Совет АРК также обратился к президенту Российской Федерации и Федеральному Собранию Государственной Думы Российской Федерации с предложением о начале процедуры вхождения Крыма в состав Российской Федерации в качестве субъекта РФ.
Выясняется, сколько депутатов проголосовали за такое решение.
Как сообщалось, 2 марта Генеральная прокуратура Украины обжаловала в суде решение крымского парламента о назначении Сергея Аксенова премьер-министром автономии. В Киеве заявляют, что его избрание происходило с нарушением законодательства.
5 марта Окружной административный суд Киева приостановил действие ряда решений, принятых Верховным Советом АРК.
"Учитывая остановку административным судом указанных решений Верховного Совета Крыма, все действия и решения Сергея Аксенова как руководителя Совета министров Крыма и от имени этого органа являются незаконными и считаются совершенными без соответствующих правовых оснований", - заявляет Генпрокуратура.
Исполняющий обязанности генпрокурора Украины Олег Махницкий заявил, что в отношении ряда политиков открыты уголовные производства, упомянув при этом Аксенова и спикера Верховного Совета Крыма Владимира Константинова: "В отношении этих лиц возбуждено производство за преступления против государства, посягательство на территориальную целостность и другие преступления против государства" (по части 1 статьи 109 Уголовного кодекса Украины - действия, направленные на насильственную смену или свержение конституционного строя или на захват государственной власти).
5 марта Шевченковский райсуд Киева удовлетворил ходатайство органов досудебного следствия о задержании Аксенова и Константинова.
Read the whole story

· ·

Россия согласна обсуждать кризис в Украине при соблюдении двух условий

1 Share
Россия будет обсуждать со своими международными партнерами пути выхода из украинского кризиса, но при условии соблюдения соглашения от 21 февраля и при участии широкого спектра политических сил этой страны, заявил источник в МИД России журналистам.
"Россия будет обсуждать со своими международными партнерами ситуацию вокруг Украины и пути выхода из кризиса", - сказал он.
"Принципиальными для нас являются два момента: выполнение соглашения от 21 февраля, которое включает в себя проведение конституционной реформы и создание коалиционного правительства, а также широкая представительность политических сил Украины в этом процессе", - пояснил собеседник журналистов.
"В ближайшее время контакты будут продолжены", - сказал он.
В понедельник глава МИД РФ Сергей Лавров обсудил украинскую тематику со своим германским коллегой Франком-Вальтером Штайнмайером.
Напомним, вчера, 3 марта, Путин согласился на создание "миссии по установлению фактов" по крымскому вопросу, предложенной Меркель.

Военные РФ затопили корабль в бухте Донузлав, заблокировав выход в море

1 Share
Российские военные сегодня ночью затопили ранее списанный большой противолодочный корабль "Очаков" у входа в озеро Донузлав, преградив выход в море кораблям Южной военно-морской базы Военно-морских сил Вооруженных сил Украины. Об этом сообщил военный источник в Севастополе, передает "Лига".
По его данным, вчера после 23.00 в гарнизоне "Донузлав" (поселок Новоозерное) начали покидать блокпосты военнослужащие без знаков различия.
Затем, примерно в 23.30, снялись с якорей и ушли в неизвестном направлении корабли ЧФ РФ (среди них ракетный крейсер "Москва"), своим присутствием несколько дней блокировавшие выход из озера украинским кораблям.
После этого российские военные втащили на буксирах и поставили между Северной и Южной косами на входе в Донузлав корабль "Очаков". "Привязав" его к одной из ранее выставленных двух бочек (плавающее гидротехническое сооружение для "привязывания" к ним кораблей и судов), они с помощью противопожарного катера начали наполнять "Очаков" водой для потери устойчивости.
Затем, по неподтвержденной информации, прозвучал взрыв, и корабль лег на борт. Перед началом этой операции прожекторами российских кораблей был "ослеплен" наблюдательный пост ВМС Украины.
Как добавил собеседник, глубина в месте затопления составляет 9 -11 метров, верхняя часть корабля видна.
При нынешних обстоятельствах выход и вход в озеро Донузлав абсолютно исключены, а чтобы поднять "Очаков", потребуется немало времени и большие финансовые затраты.
По информации издания <a href="http://blackseanews.net" rel="nofollow">blackseanews.net</a>, ночью перед входом в озеро Донузлав, где базируются корабли ВМС Украины, Черноморским флотом РФ были подорваны и затоплены старый списанный БПК "Очаков" и спасательное буксирное судно "Шахтер" из состава ЧФ РФ.
Next Page of Stories
Loading...
Page 4

Ukraine and Russia: Why is Ukraine’s economy in such a mess?

1 Share
UKRAINE’S problems are not just political. In recent weeks its economy has taken a hammering. Until mid-January its currency, the hryvnia, was fixed at 8:1 with the dollar; it now trades at about 10:1. The government has recently issued short-term debt at interest rates as high as 15%; this year its bonds have done about as badly as Venezuela's. Many analysts are worried that the country will soon default on its debt.
The economic turmoil reflects recent political instability. But Ukraine’s economic problems were long in the making. Dodgy economic policy, distaste for reform and endemic corruption have brought the country to its knees.
In the immediate post-Soviet era Ukraine was a massively unproductive economy. Like most former Soviet republics it suffered huge output declines and soaring inflation. But Ukraine was among the hardest hit of the lot. Hyperinflation in the early 1990s resulted from lack of access to financial markets and massive monetary expansion to finance government spending, in the face of sharply declining output. The Ukrainian population was scarred by the experience of hyperinflation. In response, in 1996 the Ukrainian central bank replaced the old currency, the karbovanets, with the hryvnia and pledged to keep it stable in relation to the dollar. The currency continued to wobble through the late 1990s, however, and particularly amid the Russian rouble crisis of 1998.
Both Russia and Ukraine stabilised by the early 2000s. Capital flowed back, attracted in part by relatively high interest rates (the early 2000s, when the Fed pushed its main interest rate down to 1% for an extended period, were a rehearsal of sorts for the post-crisis environment). As foreign cash flooded in the money supply grew rapidly: from 2001 to 2010 broad money increased at an annual rate of 35%. In 2006 and 2007 credit growth averaged 73%. Assets began to look extraordinarily bubbly and high inflation damaged Ukraine's export competitiveness. 
After the global crisis, and as the euro crisis intensified, Ukraine suffered from a drought in capital flows (along with much of central and eastern Europe) which placed strong downward pressure on the hryvnia. Protecting the currency drained the central bank’s reserves, which tumbled from a high of $40 billion in 2011 to about $12 billion today. Last month the central bank admitted defeat and let the currency go. Currency depreciation, while necessary, will be an economic headache for Ukraine in the short term. About half of its public debt is in foreign currencies: as the hrvynia loses value, Ukraine’s debt burden rises. Debt financing has also become more difficult as a result of the Federal Reserve's"taper", which has wrong-footed many emerging markets by stanching the previously steady flow of capital in their direction. 
Ukraine has proven reluctant to engage in reform. For a while it felt as if it didn't need to: high commodity prices during the 2000s supported growth. Many of Ukraine's exports went to Russia, a country that was also doing well on the back of high oil prices. But Ukraine was badly hit by the financial crisis and plummeting steel prices. GDP fell by 15% in 2009. That made it a prime candidate for economic streamlining. In 2010 the IMF agreed to loan Ukraine $15 billion—with conditions attached. A major target for reform were Ukraine’s cushy energy subsidies. The state gas company, Naftogaz, only charges consumers a quarter of the cost of importing the gas. Cheap gas discourages investment: Ukraine is one of the most energy-intensive economies in the world and domestic production has slumped by two-thirds since the 1970s. The IMF ended up freezing the deal in 2011 after Kiev failed to touch the costly subsidies.
In other areas reform has been half-hearted. The government did meet its public deficit target of 2.8% of GDP in 2011. Yet this was achieved by skimping on capital expenditures while overspending on wages and pensions: hardly the recipe for sustainable economic growth. Progressively lowering the rate of corporation tax has also weakened the state’s finances.
Corruption and poor governance are other major problems. The Ukrainian shadow economy is one of the biggest in the world—at around 50% of GDP, according to IMF research. Businesses operating underground tend not to pay taxes, further depriving the government of funds. And last week Ukraine’s new prime minister estimated that $37 billion had gone missing during Viktor Yanukovych’s rule.
Right now Ukraine is not too worried about improving economic management. But big bills are imminent: Ukraine needs to find about $25 billion this year to finance its large current-account deficit and to meet foreign creditors. Foreign-exchange reserves are only $12 billion. Default is certainly on the cards. When the crisis does end, addressing its economic backwardness must be a major objective.
Read the whole story

· · · ·

Ukraine crisis: European leaders to hold emergency summit | World news

1 Share
European leaders will assemble in Brussels on Thursday for an emergency summit to address the crisis in Ukraine sparked by Russia's military occupation of Crimea.
Western requests for Moscow to withdraw its troops from the Crimean peninsula – occupied in a so far bloodless takeover – have been ignored. According to the Associated Press, the new leader of the Crimea region, Sergei Aksyonov, said pro-Russian forces have control of all of the peninsula and have blockaded all Ukraninan military bases that have not yet surrendered.
The French foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, said on Wednesday that EU leaders could impose sanctions on Russia if the situation in Crimea had not defused by the time they met in Brussels on Thursday. And while it may not have escalated, the crisis is far from defused.
Ahead of the summit, the European Union has frozen the assets of Ukraine's ousted Russia-backed leader Viktor Yanukovych and 17 other officials suspected of violations of human rights and misuse of state funds.
David Cameron, François Hollande and Angela Merkel will meet on Thursday morning before the summit – due to begin at 10.30am GMT – to discuss a range of possible punitive economic sanctions against Moscow.
The US secretary of state, John Kerry, has threatened Russia with isolation "diplomatically, politically and economically" to withdraw from the Crimea – and yet while he is still engaged in negotiations with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, the hands of EU leaders are effectively tied.
As the EU meets, 40 unarmed military personnel are expected in Crimea on a mission by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe to try to defuse tensions in the region.
Later, the 15-member UN security council will hold closed-door talks in New York – the fourth such consultations since Friday.
Cameron and Merkel David Cameron and Angela Merkel will meet with François Holland before the summit. Photograph: Wpa Pool/Getty Images
But Putin has so far shown no indiciation that he is ready to bend. The first western attempts to get Moscow to back down over its seizure of Crimea failed on Wednesday evening.
Negotiations in Paris between Kerry and Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, broke up without agreement on Wednesday. The Americans and the Europeans hoped to persuade Moscow to open a dialogue with the new government in Kiev and to withdraw its forces in Crimea to their bases and allow in international monitors.
But while Lavrov accused the Americans of tabling unacceptable ultimatums, Kerry said there were "a number of ideas" up for discussion. Both men are expected to resume negotiations in Rome on Thursday after consulting their respective presidents, Barack Obama and Putin.
"Things have moved in a good direction," said Fabius.
Lavrov said western countries were proposing "steps that do not help create an atmosphere of dialogue. John Kerry agreed that such an atmosphere needed to be created. It's very hard to make honest agreements that will help the Ukrainian people stabilise the situation in an atmosphere of threats and ultimatums."
Kerry insisted he had not come to the French capital expecting to find an instant answer to the crisis in the Crimea, but was encouraged by signals from the Russians after meeting his Moscow counterpart Lavrov. Kerry also met the Ukrainian foreign minister, Andrij Deshchytsia.
"I believe I have something to take back to President Obama, and I believe Foreign Secretary Lavrov has something to take back to President Putin. All parties agree it's important to resolve this issue through dialogue," Kerry said.
It had been a day of frantic diplomacy in Paris, where Kerry met his Russian counterpart in an attempt to find a peaceful solution to the Ukrainian crisis. "We will not allow the integrity, the sovereignty, of Ukraine to be violated – or for that violation to go unchallenged," Kerry told journalists after the meeting.
"Russia made a choice. We have clearly stated it is the wrong choice to move troops into the Crimea. Ukrainian territorial integrity must be restored and maintained." Kerry added that efforts would continue to allow a "de-escalation" of the situation.
The meeting between Kerry and Lavrov was the first direct US-Russian contact since the Ukrainian crisis acquired alarming dimensions at the weekend with the fall of President Viktor Yanukovych and Russia's military occupation of Ukraine's Black Sea peninsula of Crimea.
Analysts and diplomats in Brussels had been expecting the Kremlin to make symbolic concessions in order to weaken the case for sanctions against Russia by Europe and America, but those failed to materialise. That put further pressure on Thursday's emergency EU summit, with the Europeans almost obliged to impose punitive measures on Russia.
Early on Thursday the EU said it had targeted Yanukovych and 17 other members of his former Ukrainian hierarchy with an assets freeze.
In Washington, Congress was fine-tuning legislation that would provide Obama with a "sanctions toolbox", including visa bans and asset freezes, similar to those used against Iran. The US is expected to push ahead with sanctions, which at their most extreme would include measures to restrict trade, irrespective of the decisions taken in Europe.
Lavrov said Moscow could not order the forces controlling Crimea back to bases or barracks since they were not under Russian control, but were local "self-defence" units opposed to the new government in Kiev and safeguarding their region. Diplomats in Brussels said this amounted to opposition to the western proposals.
In Crimea, a UN special envoy had to abandon his mission after being stopped by armed men and besieged inside a cafe by a hostile crowd shouting "Russia! Russia!"
The envoy, the Dutch diplomat Robert Serry, agreed to leave Crimea to end the standoff.
Germany has led the push to get Russia to engage diplomatically, resisting calls from Washington to isolate the Kremlin. The German push was reinforced by William Hague, the British foreign secretary, and the European commission, which unveiled an €11bn (£9bn) financial package for Ukraine, the equivalent of the $15bn pledged by Russia to shore up Yanukovych before he was toppled.
The transatlantic gulf opening up over how to respond to Putin appeared to be widening. One senior official from a G7 country spoke of growing unease over the US push for economic sanctions against Russia. "This isn't time for economic sanctions," the official said. "There is no clock ticking and we should be careful not to antagonise the other side."
The senior official said Berlin, rather than Washington, should assume the lead in talks with Russia. "I don't think the US should necessarily be taking the lead on behalf of G7 countries."
Merkel has spoken to Putin six times in the past week and the Germans are keen to engage rather than isolate the Russians.
In Washington, the Republican leader of the House of Representatives, John Boehner, said a bipartisan push was under way to pass legislation that would "strengthen the president's hand". He said it would be similar to how the US Congress and White House had dealt with Iran. "We gave the administration what I'll call a toolbox of sanctions [against Tehran] that they had the ability to impose as they saw fit," Boehner said.
Comparisons to the situation with Iran are likely to unnerve the White House, which has been embroiled in a series of bruising battles with hawks in Congress, who have spent months trying to push through sanctions legislation that further squeeze Tehran, a move the Obama administration believes would scupper nuclear negotiations.
But Obama, who last week insisted "there will be costs" for Putin if he intervened in Ukraine, a threat he has repeated several times since, is under pressure to follow through with action.
Officials in Brussels said there was little sign of willingness from the Russians to pursue a political settlement of the crisis, but they did not rule out a last-minute proposal from the Kremlin that would deflect the pressure for sanctions and divide Europeans going into the summit.
"The situation in Crimea needs to be handled through political dialogue in the framework of the Ukrainian constitution and respecting the rights of all Ukrainian citizens and communities," said José Manuel Barroso, the head of the European commission. "I expect no one will oppose a deployment of international observers to Crimea."
Earlier in Paris, Lavrov boycotted a meeting with Kerry, Hague and Deshchytsia. Kerry said that "regrettably" one member – Russia – had failed to appear for a meeting of the so-called Budapest agreement group, which guaranteed Ukraine's borders after it renounced nuclear weapons in the 1990s.
Lavrov repeated the Kremlin's assertion that the 16,000 troops that have seized Crimea were not Russian forces. "If you mean the self-defence units created by the inhabitants of Crimea, we give them no orders, they take no orders from us," he said. "As for the military personnel of the [Russian] Black Sea fleet, they are in their deployment sites."
European officials and diplomats admit that the sanctions being discussed on Thursday were symbolic rather than substantive. The measures include freezing talks on making it easier for Russians to travel to Europe and on a new overall agreement regulating relations between Russia and the EU.
Russian and European officials admit that both sets of talks are unofficially frozen anyway. Nonetheless, Moscow is threatening to retaliate.
Hague said the summit would need to show that there were "costs and consequences for Russia's actions against Ukraine". But the impact was more likely to be long-term rather than immediate.
Read the whole story

· · · · · · ·

Does Putin want a new Cold War? – Global Public Square

1 Share
By Olga Oliker, Special to CNN
Editor’s note: Olga Oliker is associate director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. The views expressed are her own.
Russian troops appear in control of Crimea. Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly said “the possibility still exists” that Russian forces could be sent deeper into Ukraine to defend the rights of protesting ethnic Russians. Russia’s much-voiced belief in principles of sovereignty, it seems, have been trumped by its long-held view that ethnic Russians must be protected, wherever they may live.
Two competing narratives are at work. In the narrative heard in the United States and Europe, democracy-seeking protesters forced Russia’s puppet president from office and are building a new government, which represents Ukraine’s Western values. In Russia’s narrative, a freely elected government was illegally deposed as a result of street violence encouraged by the United States and EU. Ukraine is in chaos, with ultra-nationalists threatening ethnic Russians throughout the country. Washington and Brussels saw Russia invade Ukraine. Looking from Moscow, Russian troops are trying to bring peace and stability to a neighboring state on the verge of civil war.
In an ideal universe, all sides could come to the table to hammer out a solution in which Russian troops leave Crimea (and certainly do not go elsewhere in Ukraine), Ukraine holds free and fair elections to select a new government that represents its people, and the rights of all Ukrainians are guaranteed to the satisfaction of all parties.
But if it were that easy, the situation would not have escalated to this point.
Some believe that the United States and EU should take strong steps, including possibly the use of force (or at least moving around some military equipment and personnel) to get Russia out. They argue that in Ukraine today, the United States faces a new Munich, with Crimea as the Sudetenland. But Western military action is highly unlikely: The United States and Europe have no commitment to defend Ukraine, not because the West didn’t think this could happen, but rather because it knew that it could.
Among the myriad reasons Ukraine is not a NATO member is the fact that Western leaders have known all along that were Russia to take military action against Ukraine, the members of the alliance did not want to be obligated to fight on Kiev’s behalf a war that stood the (small but real) risk of nuclear escalation. Thus, while the West wants Russian forces out of Ukraine, it will try to attain that through diplomatic and economic means, not by adding to the troops on the ground.
This is smart policy not just because of the threat of escalation. While Russia is genuinely nervous about what has happened in Ukraine, Putin’s decision to send troops is also a statement to the West that he will have none of its bullying, and that he is willing to stand up to any sort of pressure or punishment.  From a Western perspective, it makes little sense for Russia to seek to annex Crimea or East Ukraine. The occupation of the latter, at least, would over time prove painful and costly, and unless Russia moves quickly towards a political solution, it will have destroyed all hope of a reasonable relationship with the United States and the EU states going forward. But from Putin’s point of view, the deterioration of these relationships may not be such a terrible thing.
It’s possible that what Putin wants out of all this, aside from protection of Russian speakers the world over, is, if not a new Cold War, something very like one. After all, during the old Cold War, Moscow was strong, its interests respected, its prestige on par with that of Washington.
If this is indeed what Putin wants, the smart policy, and the long game, is to simultaneously show global anger at his actions while demonstrating that grabbing bits of Ukraine will not, in fact, get Russia global respect or influence.
That said, designing and implementing policies that effectively send these signals, and continue to do so over time, will be a challenge – Brussels and Washington must simultaneously avoid actions that let Russia feel it’s being treated as a dangerous enemy, but make it clear that it needs the West more than the reverse.
In the short term, it may not be possible to get Russian troops out of Crimea through economic sanctions, the freezing of assets, the exclusion of Russia from the G8 or other reasonable steps now on the table. In the long term, the United States has to make sure that the response to Russia doesn’t stop there. The United States and EU states should continue political, economic, and military cooperation with Ukraine, helping ensure that, even with Russia occupying Crimea, a new and representative government is elected, takes power, and moves forward with reforms, while respecting the rights of all ethnic groups and minorities.
Meanwhile, cooperation with Russia in other areas, including those touted as examples of the importance of the partnership, such as transport routes in and out of Afghanistan, can be scaled down wherever feasible. At the same time, actions that can be interpreted in Moscow as escalatory and that suggest that Russia poses a true threat should be avoided.
Ultimately, the door to improved relations, following the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine, should be left open. No iron curtain should be allowed to settle over Europe. Instead, it behooves Western leaders to show Putin that the invasion of Crimea is not in his, or Russia’s, best interest.
Read the whole story

· · ·

Video - Crisis in Ukraine: EU to Provide Ukraine $15 Billion Aid Package in Loans and Grants

1 Share
This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.
... long would you ... stall ... police ... Russia's action ... is violating international law ... no ... present boom seems to ... have ... a different set lawyers ... may get a set of interpretations but ... I don't think that's pulling anybody ... president Obama continued to put pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin ... of a his country's occupation of you crying ... morning and welcome I'm Simon Constable Paul as the crisis in Ukraine continues again we will devote an entire shows that opaque ... I will have some live reports from the hot spots in the region ... but fuss braking is ... the opinion and says it will provide Ukraine with ... fifteen billion dollars of aid in the form of loans and grants ... meanwhile sector is that Kerry ... is holding a high level talks in Paris bought and it's a big boss Russian form as the Sunday Lavrov ... says he will not attend ... we're going to go live now ... to make cuts in Coca and Sebastian ball I'm monitoring the situation on the ground thank you Brian much for being the Mac ... I ... what what is the mood like tell us ... we're looking at an increase in ... the creaking Creek the net that had no question that very good spirit in Christ yet they're banning it several local media outlets that have been shut down of the last couple of days I've been busy with ... local journalists who are trying to keep their TV station on the air ... right now ... write me and he was permitted all you can get in the due date so ... they can throw at TV they stand ... and that means that the robot the planned event that is the only thing that I mean treaty people quitting ... it does the local journalists that are trying to keep ... the information of freedom that get in on the air during reading and which it began ... the Russian backed local innovation which and ... Magna is only one voice coming around to all the local TV ... and in crime and IMAX The Voice basically out of state controlled ... Russian backed media is the isthe fantasize ... well in it for that but I can't guarantee it wouldn't you know the people who didn't write me at it that that that of mind that if the ground zero where the international diplomatic tension that play out in the future their future and the Pentagon ... what happened then in capital by Karen TheKnot Yellen Watching dance and those ... that have been enough of the day-to-day Bay is whether they're in ... the taper but the engine ... but if you treat him die ... if they're available through local ballet throughout the day ... at the Juhi patient that I think that they depend on the ground about the life of basically and that would be good news ... organization in right yes ... they have had control of ... the day ... the way that that huge advantage here ... the Mac will attend and so we have been looking at pictures of soldiers armed soldiers on the Street Citigroup in Crimea ... up with this one is one of ... the night time or early evening and we're looking at some daytime shots as well ... how heavy is the true presence by you've seen is that it is in a press saying or is it more like to sing in a local place ... over the weekend it was incredibly happy you had a lot of good and bad press they have a very bad shot put it on track to being a vehicle that word though it is an art that idea ... out there in the play that where they went out the high ... and it did not beat around the end ... I hate your throat between the hat with the applicant's right to implement a look at the end but it can grow all of ... the road than just about the fall would enable base that there will a Stock plane ... aam and I ... I but soldiers who are carrying Russian made weapons and ... the question vehicle behind them but they're not to get in and out ... where they're from ... so if the people here yet and getting in the fact that there's a lot for security of the tree ... and add ... them to the tothe like that he not be quite Frank the event of the local people are classes that begin to be in the chaos of the ... chairwoman of the founding of chaos that you're a much Magna tats all the will Street gentle we appreciate your time ...
Read the whole story

· ·

Kerry: Russia, Europe Initiated a Process to End Conflict in Ukraine

1 Share
Updated March 5, 2014 3:55 p.m. ET
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, center, hosts the Budapest Memorandum Ministerial meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Deshchytsia, right, and British Foreign Secretary William Hague, left, at the U.S. ambassador's residence in Paris on March 5. Associated Press
Threats by the U.S. and European powers to impose tough sanctions on Russia over its incursion into Ukraine have run into a difficult economic reality: the West has as much at stake as Moscow. Photo: AP.
Vladimir Putin's trump card against the West is its oil business, which supplies fully 30% of Europe's energy needs. But the oil boom in the U.S. could pose a real threat to Russia's oil monopoly, columnist John Bussey says on MoneyBeat. Photo: Getty Images.
*U.S.'s Kerry: Russia and Europe Initiated a Process to End Conflict in Ukraine
*Kerry Holds Lengthy Meeting with Russia's Lavrov
*Kerry Calls Day's Events Beginning of a Negotiation
(More To Come)
U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said that the U.S. is stepping up its military operations in Eastern Europe in response to the crisis in Ukraine.
Also on Wednesday, diplomatic efforts to defuse the East-West tension accelerated as the foreign ministers of the U.S., U.K. and Ukraine met to discuss the crisis. They also were trying to organize a direct meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine, both of whom were also in Paris.
The European Union said it would make at least €11 billion ($15 billion) in grants and loans available for Ukraine in the next few years, although much of the money would have strings attached and require approval from member states and other institutions.
The announcement put flesh on the bones of weeks of pledges by the EU that it would step in to provide short- and medium-term assistance to Ukraine's troubled economy and stretched government finances.
The moves are the latest effort by the U.S. and Europe to increase pressure on Russia to end its military intervention in Ukraine. Russian forces have effectively seized control of Ukraine's Russian-speaking Crimean region, which is home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
Earlier this week, the Pentagon announced that it was suspending military cooperation with Russia to protest Moscow's moves, while both the U.S. and EU have threatened to impose targeted sanctions within days if it doesn't begin pulling back.
On Wednesday Mr. Hagel said the U.S. military is boosting its joint training of North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces in Poland and adding to the alliance's air missions over the Baltic region.
"This is a time for wise and steady and firm leadership," Mr. Hagel told the Senate Armed Services Committee in Washington. "It is a time for all of us to stand with the Ukrainian people in support of their territorial integrity and their sovereignty."
The new steps are considered a direct military response but are still modest measures, meant to reassure wary NATO allies bordering Ukraine. According to a senior defense official, the U.S. plans to expand its training of NATO forces in Poland. In addition, the U.S. is increasing air patrols over Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, which joined NATO in 2004.
NATO already flies regular air patrols over the Baltic countries, but the U.S. will increase its involvement in the mission, in effect increasing the number of patrols, a senior official said.
Meanwhile, in a hectic day of diplomacy, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and his European counterparts dashed between the American Embassy in Paris and the Élysée Palace attempting to start a direct dialogue between Moscow and Kiev.
Many of the world's top diplomats, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, had gathered in Paris for a conference on stabilizing Lebanon. But the focus quickly shifted to the rising tensions in Ukraine and Western threats to sanction the Kremlin.
Mr. Kerry and the foreign ministers of the U.K., France, and Germany pressed Mr. Lavrov to meet directly with Ukraine's foreign minister, Andriy Deshchytsia, according to Western officials. But the Russian diplomat resisted.
Nevertheless, after a long bilateral meeting with Mr. Lavrov, Mr. Kerry made his most optimistic comments in days, calling it the "start of a negotiation." He said the ministers had agreed to continue "intense discussions in the coming days" to resolve the crisis.
Mr. Kerry and his British counterpart, William Hague, had convened earlier a meeting of signatories to the Budapest Memorandum—the U.S., U.K., Russia and Ukraine—but Mr. Lavrov didn't attend, underscoring the deepening rift between Moscow and the West.
Washington, London and Kiev have accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of violating the 1994 treaty, which resulted in Kiev dismantling its nuclear-weapons arsenal—the third-largest in the world at the time—in return for assurances that its borders would be respected and defended.
Mr. Deshchytsia met earlier in the day with his French counterpart, Laurent Fabius, urging Russia to bring a peaceful end to its "occupation" of the Crimea peninsula.
"We want to say two things to [our] Russian colleagues. We want to keep dialogue with them," Mr. Deshchytsia said. "We want to settle this situation peacefully. We don't want to fight the Russian people."
Moscow has said it doesn't recognize the new government in Kiev, calling the overthrow last month of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych as an unconstitutional coup.
Heads of government from the EU's 28 member states will meet in Brussels on Thursday to discuss Ukraine and consider measures against Russia over its actions in Crimea. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk will attend.
The bloc confirmed Wednesday it was placing an asset freeze on 18 Ukrainian officials it believes were involved in misappropriating government funds. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the list will include Mr. Yanukovych.
"The situation in Ukraine is a test of our capability and resolve to stabilize our neighborhood and to provide new opportunities for many, not just a few. We need to be up to this challenge," European Commission President José Manuel Barroso said.
The EU package includes significant grants and loans that could reach the country in coming months, and could include rapid elimination of tariffs for most Ukrainian exports to the bloc. But many elements depend on Ukraine's new authorities pushing a credible economic overhaul and striking a loan deal with the International Monetary Fund.
The EU package comes a day after the U.S. said it would make available $1 billion in loan guarantees to Ukraine as well as technical assistance in a number of areas. An IMF team landed in Kiev this week to start work on a possible loan package.
The EU has ready €610 million in balance-of-payments loans, which Kiev would get in the coming weeks if it signs a standby loan agreement with the IMF soon. Brussels was also expected to ask member states to approve an additional €1 billion in such aid, which could also flow to Ukraine government coffers this year.
Ukraine also stands to receive hundreds of millions of euros worth of EU grants in the short term from the bloc's development and regional assistance programs.
The EU came close to signing a sweeping trade and political pact with Ukraine in November but Mr. Yanukovych walked away from that deal, turning to Moscow for help instead. Months of pro-European protests ensured, culminating in his ouster in late February.
Earlier in Madrid, Mr. Lavrov urged Western and Ukrainian leaders to stand by the political deal reached in Kiev on Feb. 21, which would have had Mr. Yanukovych stay as president until elections late in the year. But Ukrainian lawmakers, including former allies of the president, voted to oust Mr. Yanukovych the next day after he left Kiev, eventually going to Russia.
"I don't think anyone should fool themselves and start things over from scratch," Mr. Lavrov said. He denied that Russia is in control of armed militias that have sprouted across Crimea in opposition to the new government in Kiev.
Vanessa Mock, Julian E. Barnes and Stacy Meichtry
contributed to this article.
European Commission President José Manuel Barroso holds a news conference on the situation in Ukraine in Brussels on March 5. Reuters
Russia's occupation of Crimea is building on nonmilitary tracks as the new pro-Russian Ukrainian government has replaced commercial TV stations with state TV programming. WSJ's Margaret Coker reports from Crimea. Photo: AP.
Read the whole story

· · · · · · · ·

UN Envoy Threatened By Armed Mob

1 Share

Ukraine: Sanctions On Russia Would Be Effective

Updated: 8:31pm UK, Tuesday 04 March 2014
By Ed Conway, Economics Editor
There is an assumption out there - one reflected in the briefing document inadvertently flashed to photographers by an official outside Downing Street - that economic sanctions on Russia would not be worthwhile.
The rationale has two strands: first, that any bar on trade and finance with Russia would end up being worse for Britain than for Russia, and second, that Russia, with its experience of illicit financial flows would be able to circumvent the sanctions anyway.
Both of these arguments are bogus. There is reason to believe that sanctions on Russia would be more effective now than at any time in recent years.
In order to understand why, one must first of all examine the economic linkages between the UK and Russia.
This is no mean feat as much of the cash flow between the two countries is thought to be illicit, and therefore flies beneath the radar.
But with the use of one or two big numbers, one can, at the very least get an idea.
The first thing to remember here that when one talks about economic sanctions, there are two main elements: first, bars on trade and second, bars on financial flows.
The impact of the trade barriers are relatively predictable, because we have a far better idea of how many goods pass between our two countries.
According to the Pink Book, the definitive annual ONS survey of trade flows, Russia is a relatively important trade partner for Britain - the 12th biggest destination for UK goods exports and the 25th biggest destination for services exports.
It is the 14th biggest source of UK goods imports and the 29th biggest source of UK services imports, which puts it behind Cyprus and a touch ahead of Austria.
In other words, in trade terms, Russia is no minnow, but neither is it as essential a trade partner as the US, Germany or France.
The interesting bit comes when one considers the flow of cash between the two countries.
Let's focus first of all on Russian cash heading into the UK. Pinning down just how much there is tricky.
We know that a lot of money has escaped from Russia in the past few years. The central bank quoted a figure of $56bn (£33bn) of outflows in 2012 alone, two-thirds of which it believes may be illicit.
Parsing International Monetary Figures to try to get a sense of outflows, the total between 2005 and 2013 is a touch more conservative at about $103bn (£62bn).
Either way, these are big numbers, and reflect cash that has simply left the country for other shores.
There is no definitive measure of how much of this flow has come into the UK, but based on the country's international investment position - a measure of how many assets Russians hold in the UK (and vice versa) - the answer is likely to be, an awful lot.
According to the latest numbers, a quarter of the Russian banking sector's entire foreign assets are in the UK. The total ($27.6bn) is greater than is in any other country worldwide.
The flow in the other direction is equally important.
According to figures Sky News has analysed from the Russian central bank, Britain has, in recent years, become the biggest provider of loans to Russian businesses.
Now, to some extent, both this and the previous numbers are a reflection of the fact that London is the world's premier centre of finance; much of this cash will originate in other countries and simply flow through the UK.
Nonetheless, this underlines that Russia has been highly reliant on flows of money through the UK in recent years and remains so today.
In other words, were there to be financial sanctions on the country, they would have more impact if levied by the UK than by any other country in the world.
The flipside, of course, is that would also represent a significant financial blow for the City which, on the basis of these numbers, has become quite reliant on Russian business as well.
But the evidence above underlines that far from having little impact, a ban on financial links with Moscow would make an enormous difference.
This impression is reinforced when one recalls that Cyprus, which used to provide the bulk of finance to Russia, is much less likely to be able to given it is still yet to remove the capital controls it imposed during its euro crisis last year.
In other words, while there may well be alternative sources of finance for Russian businesses, they may not be big and liquid enough to replace the City of London.
Finally, it so happens that this is a moment of particular vulnerability for the Russian economy. The past couple of years have been tepid in terms of economic growth. The central bank's decision to raise interest rates by a full 1.5% this week comes at about the worst possible time.
The collapse in the stock market on Monday is a further signal of financial stress. Though there are perpetual fears that the country might turn off the gas pipelines into Europe, it's worth remembering that this is something the country has never fully gone ahead with - not during the previous Ukraine crises, not even during the dying days of the Cold War.
What's remarkable, actually, is how little Russia's gas production levels have changed over the past quarter of a century. And there's a good reason for this: it is deeply reliant on that gas revenue.
All of which makes President Vladimir Putin's actions in Ukraine even more of a gamble. The country is extremely sensitive to sanctions - both financial (primarily London) and trade (primarily those countries which consume lots of Russian gas, such as Germany, Ukraine and Turkey).
Beneath the bluster, Mr Putin will be hoping desperately that the G7 governments remain too wary to impose them at all.
:: Watch Sky News live on television, on Sky channel 501, Virgin Media channel 602, Freeview channel 82 and Freesat channel 202.

No comments:

Post a Comment