Armed men believed to be Russian military march in the village outside Simferopol, Ukraine, on Friday, March 7. Ukrainian officials and Western diplomats accuse Russia of sending thousands of troops into the Crimea region in the past week, a claim Russia has denied. The crisis in the former Soviet republic has revived concerns of a return to Cold War relationships. Follow the evolving story on CNN's live blog.
Pro-Russia protesters demonstrate outside the Belbek Air Base outside Sevastopol, Ukraine, on Thursday, March 6.
A Ukrainian Navy officer looks at the scuttled, decommissioned Russian vessel Ochakov from the Black Sea shore outside the town of Myrnyi, Ukraine, on March 6. In the early hours of the day, Russian naval personnel scuttled the ship, blockading access for five Ukrainian Naval vessels now trapped inside of the Southern Naval Headquarters.
A member of the Russian military patrols around Perevalne, Ukraine, on March 6.
Servicemen guard a checkpoint at a Ukrainian Navy base in Perevalnoe, Crimea, on March 6.
Ukrainian troops guard the Belbek air base outside Sevastopol, Ukraine, on March 6.
A woman walks past barricades on March 6 that were set up by anti-government protesters in Kiev's Independence Square.
A sailor guards the Ukrainian Navy ship Slavutych in the Bay of Sevastopol on Wednesday, March 5.
People wait in line for food distribution in Independence Square on March 5.
Ukrainian sailors carry meat to their vessel in the Sevastopol harbor on March 5.
Riot police stand at the entrance of a regional administrative building during a rally in Donetsk, Ukraine, on March 5.
A Ukrainian police officer gives instructions to members of the media in front of the business class lounge of the Simferopol airport on March 5.
Pro-Russia demonstrators wave a Russian flag after storming a regional administrative building in Donetsk on March 5.
Demonstrators break a police barrier as they storm a regional administrative building in Donetsk on March 5.
Ukrainian military recruits line up to receive instructions in Kiev's Independence Square on Tuesday, March 4.
People stand on the Ukrainian Navy ship Slavutich while it's at harbor in Sevastopol on March 4. Mattresses were placed over the side of the ship to hinder any attempted assault.
Ukrainian troops watch as a Russian navy ship blocks the entrance of the Ukrainian navy base in Sevastopol on March 4.
A woman photographs pro-Russian soldiers guarding Ukraine's infantry base in Perevalnoye, Ukraine, on March 4.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, wearing a blue scarf, visits a shrine March 4 for the people who were killed during anti-government protests in Kiev last month.
Yuli Mamchun, the commander of the Ukrainian military garrison at the Belbek air base near Sevastopol, salutes on March 4.
Russian soldiers stand guard at the Belbek air base on March 4.
Ukrainian military members march at the Belbek air base on March 4.
Russian soldiers fire warning shots to keep back Ukrainian military members at the Belbek air base on March 4.
A Ukrainian airman puts the Ukrainian national flag over the gate of the Belbek air base as they guard what's left under their control on March 4.
Russian soldiers aim a grenade launcher and machine gun as they guard positions at the Belbek air base on March 4.
Ukrainian seamen stand guard on the Ukrainian navy ship Slavutich in the Sevastopol harbor on Monday, March 3.
Oleg, a Ukrainian soldier, kisses his girlfriend, Svetlana, through the gates of the Belbek base entrance on March 3. Tensions are high at the base, where Ukrainian soldiers were standing guard inside the building while alleged Russian gunmen were standing guard outside the gates.
Wives of Ukrainian soldiers walk past Russian soldiers to visit their husbands guarding a military base in Perevalnoye on March 3.
A Russian soldier guards an area outside Ukraine's military base in the village of Perevalnoye on March 3.
A sailor looks out a window near the entrance to the Ukrainian navy headquarters in Sevastopol on March 3.
Armed men in military uniform walk outside a Ukrainian military unit near Simferopol on Sunday, March 2. Hundreds of armed men in trucks and armored vehicles surrounded the Ukrainian base Sunday in Crimea, blocking its soldiers from leaving.
Soldiers walk outside a Ukrainian military base in Perevalne, Ukraine, as a local resident waves a Russian flag March 2.
Demonstrators shout during a rally in Kiev's Independence Square on March 2.
Ukrainian soldiers, left, and unidentified gunmen, right, stand at the gate of an infantry base in Perevalnoye on March 2.
Ukrainian soldiers guard a gate of an infantry base in Perevalnoye on March 2.
A woman cries during a rally in Independence Square on March 2.
Protesters hold flags of the United States, Germany and Italy during a rally in Independence Square on March 2.
People attend a morning prayer service at Independence Square on March 2.
A soldier and a truck driver unload bread outside the Ukranian navy headquarters in Sevastopol, Ukraine, on March 2.
Heavily armed troops, displaying no identifying insignia and who were mingling with local pro-Russian militants, stand guard outside a local government building in Simferopol, Ukraine, on March 2.
A woman waits in front of unidentified men in military fatigues who were blocking a base of the Ukrainian frontier guard unit in Balaklava, Ukraine, on Saturday, March 1.
U.S. President Barack Obama, in the Oval Office of the White House, talks on the phone March 1 with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Troops stand guard in Balaklava on March 1.
Heavily armed soldiers displaying no identifying insignia maintain watch in Simferopol, Ukraine, on March 1.
People gather around the coffin of a man who was killed during clashes with riot police in Independence Square.
Pro-Russian activists hold Russian flags during a rally in the center of Donetsk, Ukraine, on March 1.
Pro-Russian activists clash with Maidan supporters as they storm the regional government building in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 1.
A protester stands at a memorial March 1 for the people killed in clashes at Independence Square.
Armed men patrol outside the Simferopol International Airport in Ukraine's Crimea region on Friday, February 28. Simferopol is the regional capital.
An image provided to CNN by a local resident shows Russian tanks on the move in Sevastopol, Ukraine.
Russian troops block a road February 28 toward the military airport in Sevastopol, Ukraine. The Russian Black Sea Fleet is based at the port city of Sevastopol.
Armed men stand guard in front of a building near the Simferopol airport on February 28.
An armed man wearing no identifying insignia patrols outside Simferopol International Airport on February 28.
Police stand guard outside the Crimea regional parliament building Thursday, February 27, in Simferopol. Armed men seized the regional government administration building and parliament in Crimea.
Police intervene as Russian supporters gather in front of the parliament building in Simferopol on February 27.
A man adds fuel to a fire at a barricade in Independence Square on February 27. Dozens of people were killed last week during clashes between security forces and protesters.
Pro-Russia demonstrators wave Russian and Crimean flags in front of a local government building in Simferopol on February 27.
Barricades in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 27 hold a banner that reads: "Crimea Russia." There's a broad divide between those who support the pro-Western developments in Kiev and those who back Russia's continued influence in Crimea and across Ukraine.
Protesters stand in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 27. Tensions have simmered in the Crimea region since the Ukrainian president's ouster.
Protesters in support of the president's ouster rally in Independence Square, which has been the center of opposition, on Wednesday, February 26.
Security forces stand guard during clashes between opposing sides in front of Crimea's parliament building in Simferopol on February 26.
Pro-Russian demonstrators, right, clash with anti-Russian protesters in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 26.
A police officer gets pulled into a crowd of Crimean Tatars in Simferopol on February 26. The Tatars, an ethnic minority group deported during the Stalin era, is rallying in support of Ukraine's interim government.
A man places flowers at a barricade near Independence Square on February 26.
On February 26 in Kiev, A woman holds a photograph of a protester killed during the height of tensions.
Police guard a government building in Donetsk on February 26.
Protesters remove a fence that surrounds Ukraine's parliament in Kiev on February 26.
People sing the Ukrainian national anthem at Independence Square on Monday, February 24.
Gas masks used by protesters sit next to a barricade in Independence Square on February 24.
A woman cries February 24 near a memorial for the people killed in Kiev.
People wave a large Ukrainian flag in Independence Square on Sunday, February 23.
Two pro-government supporters are made to pray February 23 in front of a shrine to dead anti-government protesters.
A man and his daughter lay flowers at a memorial for protesters killed in Independence Square.
Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko speaks at Independence Square on Saturday, February 22, hours after being released from prison. Tymoshenko, considered a hero of a 2004 revolution against Yanukovych, was released after 2½ years behind bars.
Tymoshenko is greeted by supporters shortly after being freed from prison in Kharkiv on February 22.
A protester guards the entrance to Yanukovych's abandoned residence outside Kiev on February 22.
Anti-government protesters guard the streets next to the presidential offices in Kiev on February 22.
Anti-government protesters drive a military vehicle in Independence Square on February 22. Many protesters said they wouldn't leave the square until Yanukovych resigned.
Ukrainian lawmakers argue during a session of Parliament on Friday, February 21.
Men in Kiev carry a casket containing the body of a protester killed in clashes with police.
Protesters cheer after news of an agreement between the opposing sides in Kiev on February 21.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Robert Pape argues economic sanctions against Russia would not work
- He argues that while sanctions can hurt a regime, they cannot break it
- In many cases, sanctions will make the political situation worse, he says
Editor's note: Robert Pape is professor of political science at the University of Chicago, and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Terrorism. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Robert Pape.
(CNN) -- United States President Barack Obama has now paved the way for imposing economic sanctions against Russia. However, these would be an ineffective and naive response by the U.S. to the crisis in Ukraine.
Economic sanctions have little independent usefulness for the pursuit of non-economic goals.
This is not to say that sanctions never work, but rather that 95% of cases are unsuccessful. In many cases, sanctions will make the political situation worse.
Robert Pape
Nationalism often makes states and societies willing to endure considerable punishment rather than abandon their national interests.
Modern states, simply put, are not that fragile -- sanctions can hurt a regime, but they cannot break it. In this way, imposing economic sanctions on a state is similar to backing an angry dog into a corner -- in most cases, the dog will become more vicious, and more defensive.
History might seem to indicate otherwise. Economic sanctions often go hand-in-hand with military intervention, which can sprout misleading conclusions.
New Russia sanctions won't have much effect
Russia's trade flows
This is true of the sanctions we imposed on Iraq in 1990, when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait: U.S. military intervention in 1991 was still necessary to force his retreat. Few would say that economic sanctions were successful in kicking him out. Indeed, sanctions continued after the Gulf War with little to no effect, until we finally removed the regime by force in 2003.
Further, sanctions typically take the form of a great power or coalition seeking to leverage a relatively weak state.
The suggestion that they might be effective against a major global power like Russia is seriously flawed. Even those who do believe sanctions might work on Iran would likely find the idea of imposing sanctions on Russia to be preposterous.
There are two reasons why. First, even if economic sanctions were an effective form of leverage, Russia can squeeze us almost effectively as we can squeeze them. Sergei Glazyev, a Kremlin economist, simply threatened to not repay debt to U.S. bankers in response to American-imposed sanctions. Between great powers, leverage is a two-way street.
Modern states, simply put, are not that fragile -- sanctions can hurt a regime, but they cannot break it.
Robert Pape
Robert Pape
Second, Putin is clearly prepared to incur economic costs to accomplish his objectives in Ukraine. Even without sanctions, the deployment of troops to Crimea has already affected the Russian economy. On March 3 the Moscow stock market fell more than 10% which, as a Reuters article pointed out, wiped nearly $60 billion off the value of Russian companies -- more than the $51 billion spent on the Winter Olympics in Sochi. Meanwhile, Putin's approval ratings remained high.
By threatening sanctions, Obama is not giving Russia President Vladimir Putin enough credit. Of course the Russian leader has considered this scenario, and it did not deter him from occupying Crimea.
Furthermore, if we impose sanctions and Russia breaks commitments with U.S. bankers in response, what would be the effect? From a strategic standpoint, none. We certainly wouldn't let Russia use economic threats to dictate our foreign policy, no matter what the economic cost; why should we expect the Russian leadership to budge?
Obama orders sanctions over Ukraine
Obama: The world should support Ukraine
But if sanctions are a bad idea, what is the alternative?
The key to keeping Ukraine unified is to take away support for Russian annexation. This means solidifying support for the new government in Kiev among the Russian population in the East, especially in Crimea.
Obama must encourage the new government in Ukraine to strengthen economic and political ties with the pro-Russian population. This means bringing in election monitors to encourage faith and participation in the new regime, and creating new economic programs to bolster well-being in the eastern part of the country. The U.S. should offer support to fund those efforts.
The West must remember that in 2011, 70% of Crimeans considered Ukraine their "motherland," despite most of them being Russian-speaking. In other words, until the proposed EU deal went sour, there was little sentiment in Crimea for secession or annexation. A return to these conditions in Ukraine, and not economic sanctions against Russia, is the key to stopping Putin.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Robert Pape.
