Friday, August 31, 2012

Here is the scoop

Here is the scoop.

Power in Russia (probably from Peter "the Great" times) resides not in the formal government structures, but in the choking hold of secret services on all aspects of "body politics" and social life.  The extent and scale of this hold reaches almost grotesque proportions. It suffocates the national spirit, precluding the normal historical development.

The particulars of the present situation are in the continuing split in the executive powers, reflecting the split in the strategic thinking and plans of SS (Secret Services), whatever they are called. The basis of the split is in the generational gap. The developments in Russia are determined more by the generational aspect because of the greater emphasis on voluntaristic (leaders and their personalities) factor, historically determined, and imitative nature of Russia's social development. Russia is shackled to the Asiatic East while looking up to the European West.

Putin - Medvedev's  rivalry-cooperation ("duumvirate"-"dvuumvirate", "dvoyevlastiye") is a phenomenon both new and old, evolved historically and empirically in order to capture "the best of two worlds" and to provide a connection, a bridge between two generational worlds, enhancing "the stability" or the illusion of it.

Both serve as ideological-political banners for their respective camps in SS. "Putin Redux" is a result of temporary compromise between them. Putin can and will be discarded easily and without any second thoughts if he is judged to be an impediment and obstacle to the interests of one or both of these camps, which compete with each other to protect their respective interests  and are extremely cynical, animalistic, self-serving and self-protecting in their mentality, outlooks, attitudes and strategies.

Putin is shunned, scoffed, looked down upon and almost isolated on the world stage. This isolation will continue and intensify. He will be discarded when the situation threatens directly the financial and political interests of Russian "ruling elite", namely, the KGB criminal mafia oligarchy.


To Russian SS:
Make your choice. It resides inevitably with the younger partner.

To The West:
Continue and intensify Putin's isolation to the point of disabling him and his camp.

To Putin:
Vovchik, your time is up. You have to go, sooner or later; and sooner is better for you personally. There is no point in playing Jesus Christ and putting yourself on a cross. The longer it goes on, the more chances that you will be sacrificed by your "friends" one way or another. Although the exit, regardless of its timing, cannot and will not provide any guarantees against future investigations and prosecution.

To Medvedev:
Do not be afraid, he cannot fire you (although some risk is present): it will mean a civil war. Press reports are just trial shots from the opposite camp. Your firing will mean that he did not live up to his part of the agreement and betrayed you, while you maintained your loyalty to him. This will have the devastating effect on "elites", will increase their "fragmentation",  and they will start abandoning him in droves, fleeing for safety, although not necessarily to you. Your mistake was in not gaining the effective control of SS during your presidency, although this was very difficult to do because of their inherent and continuing distrust.

I might be as "crazy and grandiose" (mostly stylistically) in this assessment as I choose, but this does not exclude the objectivity of its insights, within the scope of my independent and individual opinion.