Crisis has already damaged investor confidence and Russian business circles are fretting about a spiral of retaliatory measures
Moscow needs assurances that EU membership for Ukraine is decades away and Nato membership is off the agenda, or the crisis in Ukraine could escalate
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Sanctions, including asset freeze and travel ban on military and officials, could be imposed day after Crimea referendum
The European Union is on course to impose travel bans and to freeze the assets of Russian officials and military officers involved in the occupation of Crimea by next Monday if Moscow declines to accept the formation of a "contact group" to establish a dialogue with Ukraine.
A meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday is being seen as an unofficial deadline for the introduction of the sanctions, which would exempt the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, as the EU tries to keep open lines of communication.
The sanctions could be imposed a day after Sunday's referendum in Crimea to allow the Black Sea peninsula to join the Russian Federation.
Ukraine's parliament warned the regional assembly in Crimea on Tuesday that it faces dissolution unless it cancels the referendum, which has been condemned by the EU and the US as illegal. But the Russian foreign ministry said it would respect the result of the vote.
Officials from the EU, US, Japan and Turkey met in London on Tuesday to draw up a list of Russians who could be subject to the sanctions, as Kiev called on London and Washington to live up to their commitments to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Britain, the US and Russia were signatories to the Budapest memorandum in 1994 in which they agreed to uphold the newly independent Ukraine's borders in exchange for the surrender of the nuclear arsenal it inherited from the Soviet Union.
Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the interim Ukrainian prime minister, said: "If you do not uphold these guarantees which you signed up to in the Budapest memorandum, then explain how you will convince Iran and North Korea to give up their nuclear status."
In his second press conference since he fled to Russia, Ukraine's former president, Viktor Yanukovych, decried the actions of the new Kiev government and its western allies but shied away from discussing the de facto Russian occupation of Crimea.
The sanctions will be introduced under what EU leaders describe as phase II of a three-stage plan agreed at their summit last week. The final stage would involve curbs on energy, trade and financial relations if Russian forces move beyond Crimea to the main part of eastern Ukraine.
The number of Russians named in the EU's official journal is expected to be in double rather than triple figures.
David Cameron's spokesman said: "The prime minister is very much linking phase II to the need for dialogue to start in the new few days. We are asking [the officials] to do preparatory work and we still believe there is an opportunity for the dialogue to start and we very much encourage the Russian authorities to start that. The focus [of the sanctions will] be on officials who are closely linked to infringements on Ukrainian sovereignty."
Russians based in London – or oligarchs in Moscow who base their assets in London – will be exempt from sanctions because they are not linked to the "infringements". This approach was criticised by John McCain, the former Republican US presidential candidate, who raised concerns about a secret UK government document which said that "London's financial centre" should not be closed to Russians. The Arizona senator, who described the photographed document as "very unfortunate", told the FT: "Many of the Russian oligarchs would be affected by the sanctions that I advocate. These billionaires with ill-gotten gains from their relationship with Vladimir Putin – it is a bit unsettling that the [UK] government would not want in some way to restrict their lifestyle."
Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister, told France-Inter radio that the sanctions could be introduced by the end of this week: "There is a set of sanctions that will take effect as of this week and that will consist of freezing the personal assets of Russians and Ukrainians and visa restrictions."
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German foreign minister, said a decision would be made by Monday. Berlin, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas, remains cautious.
Meanwhile, the Chatham House thinktank said the referendum on Sunday would give voters no opportunity to break free from Russia. The first question, according to Reuters, will ask voters if they are in favour of the "reunification of Crimea with Russia as a part of the Russian Federation". The second question asks if they are in favour of "restoring the 1992 constitution and the status of Crimea as a part of Ukraine". But the constitution was later abolished.
In an article reported by Reuters, Keir Giles, of Chatham House, wrote: "Even if it [the referendum] were legitimate, the two choices presented to Crimean voters offer them no option for leaving Russian control. The restoration of this [1992] constitution would be a step towards notional independence under Russian control … Those citizens who were content with Crimea remaining part of Ukraine on the same basis as it has been for the last 20 years do not have a voice in this referendum. There is no third option available."
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What's The Difference Between Putin and Milosevic? About 22 Years by noreply@rferl.org (Nenad Pejic)
As I watch the news and images from Crimea, I can’t help but feel a sense of deja vu. It's as if am reliving the 1992 break-up of Yugoslavia and the beginning of the Bosnian war.
On The Scene: Elizabeth Arrott in Simferopol, Ukraineby webdesk@voanews.com (Elizabeth Arrott)
Crimea's regional government is going ahead with plans to hold a referendum on breaking away from Ukraine and joining Russia. But with Russian troops and pro-Russian self-defense forces in control of the peninsula, those in favor of Crimea remaining in Ukraine say it couldn't possibly be fair. Crimea’s pro-Moscow politicians have been out rallying support for Sunday’s referendum - giving the people of the Ukrainian peninsula a choice between joining Russia, or...
Crimea's parliament pushes for independence
KVVU Las Vegas (AP Photo/David Azia). Flowers placed by people in memory of those who died in late February's clashes are lit by the early morning sun in Kiev's Independence Square, Ukraine, Tuesday, March 11, 2014. (AP Photo/David Azia). A member of a self defense ... and more » |
Obama to Host Ukraine's Interim PMby webdesk@voanews.com (VOA News)
U.S. President Barack Obama hosts Ukraine's interim prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, at the White House Wednesday. The White House says the president will stress his strong support for the Ukrainian people and talk about economic aid. The United States has already pledged $1 billion in aid to Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry held another telephone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Tuesday on the ongoing situation in Ukraine. A...
Were Crimea warning signs missed? by CNNInternational
Should the international community have seen the conflict in Crimea coming? CNN's Matthew Chance reports.
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Ousted Ukrainian leader Viktor Yanukovych said that upcoming presidential elections scheduled for late May are illegal because he remains the country's only legitimate president.
Prospects for quick passage of U.S. financial aid to Ukraine dimmed as the Senate's top negotiator pushed for a broader package that threatens to draw opposition from Republicans.
Russia-Ukraine: Whose side is law on? by CNNInternational
CNN's Becky Anderson speaks to Professor Marc Weller about the legalities of Russia trying to lay claim to Crimea.
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The European Union stepped up its response to Russia's military incursion into Crimea, handing trade incentives to Ukraine while preparing to impose sanctions on Russians within days.
Men wearing red armbands stand guard at the gates, blocking flights to everywhere except Moscow.
Crimean independence up for a vote by CNNInternational
Preparations for an independence referendum are in full swing in Crimea. CNN's Nick Paton Walsh reports.
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Op-Ed Contributor: Ukraine’s President Rebuffs Russian ‘Imperialism’ by By OLEKSANDR V TURCHYNOV
Ukrainians want peace, but we will not submit to Soviet-style bullying.
U.S. President Barack Obama hosts Ukraine's interim prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, at the White House Wednesday.The White House says the president will stress his strong support for the Ukrainian people and talk about economic aid. The United States already has pledged $1 billion in aid to Ukraine. His visit comes just a day after the U.S. House of Representatives voted 403 to six to condemn Russia for violating Ukraine's sovereignty in Crimea. The resolution also calls for...
New Vision |
West Readies Sanctions on Russia, Warily
Wall Street Journal WASHINGTON—The U.S. and Europe are readying sanctions that stand to drive a wedge into more than a decade of efforts to integrate Russia into the West's financial system, said current and former U.S. officials involved in the deliberations. Russia proposes solution to Ukraine crisisXinhua Crimea's parliament votes as Ukraine crisis escalatesThe Australian West pledges to impose sanctions on Moscow as Russia tightens hold on CrimeaWashington Post RIA Novosti -Businessweek -Voice of America all 2,845 news articles » |
Парламент Украины обратился с заявлением к США, Великобритании и России как к странам-гарантам территориальной целостности Украины, подписавшим Будапештский меморандум 1994 года.
В заявлении Верховной Рады говорится, что ситуация в Крыму продолжает ухудшаться из-за ввода российских войск на полуостров.
Учитывая гарантии, полученные Киевом в обмен на отказ от собственного ядерного оружия, Украина настаивает на том, чтобы Лондон и Вашингтон использовали дипломатические, политические, экономические и военные меры для обеспечения целостности государства.
Украина также обратилась к России, подписавшей меморандум, с требованием вывести свои войска с полуострова и прекратить агрессию.
В обмен на ядерное разоружение Украина получила гарантии своей безопасности от стран-гарантов, подписавших Будапештский меморандум в 1994 году. Это США, Россия и Великобритания.
Коллективные санкции
Кроме того во вторник Рада выдвинула требование к парламенту Крыма пересмотреть решение о проведении 16 марта референдума о присоединении полуострова к России. В заявлении украинского парламента отмечается, что решение о проведении общекрымского референдума противоречит Конституции Украины.
Рада также призвала жителей Крыма не принимать участие в референдуме.
Тем временем в Лондоне проходит встреча представителей Великобритании, Евросоюза и США, участники которой рассматривают возможности ужесточения санкций против России и составления списка высокопоставленных лиц, связанных с властями России, чьи авуары на Западе будут заморожены в связи с вводом российских войск на территорию Крыма.
О санкциях против России может быть официально объявлено 17 марта
Санкции будут формально объявлены на встрече министров иностранных дел ЕС в Брюсселе в понедельник, 17 марта (на следующий день после референдума в Крыму), если президент России Владимир Путин не согласится начать прямые переговоры с правительством Украины.
По словам премьер-министра Польши Дональда Туска, санкции Евросоюза начнут действовать сразу после официального объявления. "По поводу санкций в отношении России, решение уже фактически было принято, особенно касательно процедуры их введения", - рассказал Туск.
Ожидается, что во встрече в британском министерстве иностранных дел также примут участие представители Швейцарии, Японии, Турции и Канады. Они обсудят возможность расширения санкций, уже наложенных на 18 человек, связанных с администрацией бывшего президента Украины Виктора Януковича, а также включение в этот список высокопоставленных россиян.
Им может быть отказано в визах, а на их имущество за рубежом наложен арест. На переговорах в Лондоне будут обсуждаться критерии включения конкретных лиц в этот список. Ожидается, что Евросоюз будет действовать совместно с США.
Президент США Барак Обама уже приказал заморозить авуары лиц, связанных с нарушением суверенитета и территориальной целостности Украины.
Осталось несколько дней
Премьер-министр Великобритании Дэвид Кэмерон заявил членам парламента, что у России осталось всего несколько дней, если она хочет избежать санкций.
По словам представителей британского правительства, крайним сроком является встреча министров ЕС на следующей неделе, после которой, при отсутствии положительного ответа Москвы, режим санкций будет введен автоматически.
Французский министр иностранных дел Лоран Фабиус предупредил, что санкции против России могут появиться уже на этой неделе, если Москва не откликнется на предложения Запада по урегулированию кризиса на Украине.
"Если они ответят утвердительно (на предложения), Джон Керри отправится в Москву, и тогда немедленных санкций не будет. Если они не ответят или ответят отрицательно, то будут введены санкции возможно уже на этой неделе", - сказал он в интервью французской радиостанции France Inter.
По словам Кэмерона, у России есть всего несколько дней, чтобы избежать санкций
Ранее госсекретарь США Джон Керри отказался встречаться с российским президентом Владимиром Путиным до тех пор, пока Москва не выразит заинтересованность предложениями США по урегулированию кризиса на Украине.
Керри заявил своему российскому коллеге Сергею Лаврову, что действия России в Крыму осложнили возможность любых переговоров.
По словам американских официальных лиц, тем для разговора будет еще меньше, если запланированный на воскресенье референдум о вхождении Крыма в состав России все же состоится.
Новые власти Украины и страны Запада называют предстоящий референдум незаконным.
В разговоре с Лавровым Керри вновь призвал Москву остановить вторжение российских войск на Украину и процесс аннексии Крыма, чтобы обеспечить пространство для дипломатии.
Реакция России
Между тем вице-премьер России Аркадий Дворкович заявил, что экономические и финансовые санкции против России отразятся и на тех странах, которые их могут принять. "Любые санкционные предложения - это огромный риск для тех, кто их выдвигает", - заявил он.
На пресс-конференции в Ростове-на-Дону вице-премьера спросили, обсуждало ли российское правительство последствия возможных санкций, и он ответил на него утвердительно.
"Такой анализ ведется постоянно, причем колебания мировой экономики оказывают гораздо большее влияние на Россию, чем любые санкции", - сказал Дворкович.
По словам Дворковича, правительство намеревается "вести свою экономическую политику таким образом, чтобы минимально зависеть от политических рисков".
Он пояснил, что это означает диверсификацию экономических связей: "Мы работаем со всеми партнерами: и с Европой, и с американским континентом, и во все большей степени с азиатско-тихоокеанским регионом".
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In Yalta, Redrawing the Map Once Again
The fight over Crimea’s future has pitted Russia against Ukraine. But in the multi-ethnic peninsula loyalties are not so clear cut. VOA’s Elizabeth Arrott has more from Yalta.
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For Crimea’s Tatars, Fear, Defiance Take Hold
The dispute over the Ukrainian republic of Crimea has largely pitted Ukraine against Russia. But the region’s ethnic Tatars may have the most to lose. VOA’s Elizabeth Arrott has more from Crimean town of Bakhchisarai.
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Car shows around the world increasingly suggest that in the not-too-distant future, cars will feature autopilots handling some of the driving. An auto show now under way in Switzerland, is showcasing other possible trends - including cars manufactured by 3D printers. VOA’s George Putic reports.
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Philippines Coconut Industry Struggles to Recover after Typhon Haiyan
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Российско-украинский кризис грозит перерасти в "общеевропейский кризис с гарантированным участием соседних стран, государств-членов НАТО и США". Об этом заявил бывший советник президента РФ Владимира Путина, научный сотрудник Института Катона Андрей Илларионов в интервью Die Presse.
"Это результат превращения России из полусвободной страны, какой она была в 2002 году, в нынешнюю полноценную автократию, - сказал экономист. - Политический режим сегодня насквозь авторитарен. Пока он не тоталитарный, но близко к тому. Россия сегодня - совсем не та страна, что в 2002 году: это страна с политзаключенными, запугиванием меньшинств, политической оппозиции, гомосексуалистов и многих других. Ее внешняя политика очень агрессивна. Россия заняла ревизионистскую, реваншистскую позицию, цель которой в том, чтобы заново прочертить границы в Европе. Это не шутка, а официальная политика правительства".
"Начиная с 2004 года Россия является даже не полудемократической, а совершенно авторитарной страной", а после незаконного вторжения в Грузию в 2008 году она, с точки зрения международного сообщества, утратила право на членство в "большой восьмерке", - полагает Илларионов.
Впрочем, отметил он, исключение из этого клуба Путина "теперь уже не огорчит... Повлияло ли на Сталина исключение [СССР] из Лиги Наций в 1939 году после нападения на Финляндию? Нет. Было слишком поздно. Его режим [к тому времени] уже превратился в нечто такое, что коренным образом отличалось от традиционных представлений большей части международного сообщества. Поэтому на образ действий Путина сегодня не повлияло бы и исключение России из ООН". На вопрос, почему Россию не исключили из G8 после грузинской войны, Илларионов ответил: "Можно было бы еще спросить Даладье и Чемберлена, почему они в 1938 году не приняли соответствующих мер против Гитлера и Муссолини. Тогда это называлось "умиротворением", сегодня говорят о "начале с чистого листа".
"...Это не крымский кризис. И не украинский кризис. Это кризис, который может привести к полномасштабной войне... Присоединение Крыма практически состоялось... Более того, подготовлено и наступление на сам Киев. Цель Путина - Киев и вся Украина. Он хочет теперь создать сухопутный коридор из Крыма в Приднестровье, где уже давно заправляют бывшие офицеры КГБ и, соответственно, ФСБ. Этот коридор призван отрезать Украину от Черного моря". Илларионов считает, что "нападение на Украину Путин запланировал год назад".
Если США и Европа не примут меры, то реализация этого сценария - "лишь вопрос времени", прогнозирует Илларионов. Под "мерами" он подразумевает выдвижение в сторону конфликтной зоны воинского контингента стран Запада. В 2008 году именно "решение президента Буша перебросить в Турцию и Румынию эскадрильи ВВС США и отправить в Черное море военные корабли" заставило Россию остановить свои войска в 60 км от Тбилиси, убежден Илларионов. "Никто сегодня не хочет делать ничего в этом роде. Я и сам не хочу, чтобы это делалось. Но я не вижу другого средства положить конец агрессии и оккупации", - цитирует Илларионова InoPressa.ru.
Как сообщал MIGnews.com.ua, Илларионов заявил, что события в Крыму - это внедрение многоэтапного плана, разработанного 6 лет назад. По его словам, реализация этого плана началась летом 2013 года. "Крым - только начало. Дальше - Восток, Юг..."
Как сообщал MIGnews.com.ua, Илларионов заявил, что события в Крыму - это внедрение многоэтапного плана, разработанного 6 лет назад. По его словам, реализация этого плана началась летом 2013 года. "Крым - только начало. Дальше - Восток, Юг..."
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ST. PETERSBURG, Russia — President Vladimir Putin is often and accurately depicted as the only decision maker when it comes to Russia’s policy on Ukraine. However, it is important not to underestimate the strength of his domestic mandate. Recent polls show he enjoys the support of some 68 percent of Russian citizens, and I can personally attest to the fact that many intelligent critics of Putin support his Ukrainian policy — a point often overlooked by Western media. Why do many educated Russians think this way?
One obvious observation is that the leading Russian mass media is under government control. According to polls by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center and the Levada Center, about 43 percent of Russians interviewed said they think “Western actions” are the chief culprit behind the crisis, though they are more circumspect when it comes to identifying who escalated it: Some 45 percent blame Ukraine’s ousted president, Viktor Yanukovych, 38 percent blame Western leaders and 35 percent point the finger at the Ukrainian opposition.
While it is easy for Russians to access alternative views online, these sometimes serve only to highlight the double standards of Putin’s critics, legitimizing the Russian leader’s own double standards. A case in point is Secretary of State John Kerry’s remark on March 2 that “You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext” — a statement that also conjures up President George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq.
In any event, Russians have a long tradition of state censorship to thank for their highly refined ability to read between the lines of any media report and interpret it according to their own preconceived ideas. Russians typically will not believe any official information precisely because it is official, and that holds equally true for information from the West.
Another point often overlooked is that Russian identity is linked to empire, and many still see Ukraine as “our land.” Many Russians are ignorant about contemporary Ukraine, and the intelligentsia in both countries could do a much better job of educating their fellow citizens about the realities on the other side of their border. Yet history shows that Russians are perfectly capable of shaking off their prejudices — people in Moscow and St. Petersburg showed crucial solidarity with independence movements in the Baltic states in the early 1990s.
In the end, like other people, Russians care about their state’s interests as they understand them. So are they in fact supporting “Putin’s dictatorship” against “Ukrainian democracy”?
The situation is more complicated than that. Ukraine is experiencing a multidimensional, revolutionary crisis. All revolutions contain elements of civil war and international intervention, and the main means of extricating a country from a revolutionary state is to restore the state monopolies on violence and legislation. Revolutionary authorities must prove their legitimacy every hour, so the role of political culture and tradition increases dramatically in the course of a revolutionary crisis.
The problem is that after 23 years apart, Russians and Ukrainians have shaped very different narratives from the same Soviet memories. Soviet culture romanticized and sanctified revolution. But the revolutionary ideal could also be turned against the regime: In the late 1980s the Bolshevik slogan, “All power to Soviets,” acquired new connotations: Power indeed should belong to the Soviets, the peoples’ assemblies, and not to the Communist party.
Remember also that Boris Yeltsin made one of his most famous appearances atop a tank, an image borrowed directly from the iconography of the Bolshevik revolution. But that same symbolism was turned around when Yeltsin later used tanks against the Parliament in the 1993 constitutional crisis. This event is often invoked today in evaluating the situation in Ukraine.
I believe Yeltsin’s actions, and Putin’s, shaped a new politics of memory in Russia. The very term “revolution” has come to carry negative connotations for Russians. The Russian religious philosopher Nikolai Berdyaev and the writer Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, both of whom held a negative vision of any revolution, are often quoted in official speeches. This politics of memory resonates with today’s Russians — “stability” has become a core political value.
Nobody in Russia supports Yanukovych. But the immediate collapse of his deal with the opposition and European foreign ministers under the pressure of the revolutionary street provoked strong reservations even among Russians who are not supporters of Putin. Public opinion polls in Russia found that feelings of indignation among Russians viewing the images of burning barricades in Kiev grew from 13 percent in mid-December to 36 percent in mid-February. That same month, sociologists recorded a new emotion expressed by some 15 percent of respondents: fear. These emotions are undoubtedly a factor behind Putin’s actions.
In Ukraine the situation is very different. Ukrainian nationalists may reject the myth of the Bolshevik revolution, but they have picked up its aura of romance and sanctity, shaping their own new cults of heroes and martyrs. Many new Ukrainian national monuments resemble Soviet monuments.
More important, the Orange Revolution of 2004 endowed Ukrainian political culture with a rich new revolutionary tradition which was an important resource in 2013-2014: A diverse repertoire of protest was in place, and the very political topography of Kiev — of the Maidan — carried specific political connotations.
But events change perceptions. Some observers in Russia have argued that the Russian preference for stability over change is a major obstacle to needed political transformation. And history shows that any attempt to halt revolutionary movements elsewhere through intervention threatens to bring the revolution home — exactly what Putin’s supporters fear. At the same time, any attempt to resolve the Ukrainian crisis without taking Russian sentiments into account is also doomed.
Boris Kolonitskii is first vice-rector and professor of history at the European University at St. Petersburg. He is the coauthor of “Interpreting the Russian Revolution: The Language and Symbols of 1917,” among other books.
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A man yelling antigay slurs accosted a couple on a subway platform this week in Greenwich Village and punched one of the men in the face, the police said on Thursday.
The episode, which police described as a bias attack, occurred just after midnight on Sunday as the couple waited at the West Fourth Street station near Washington Square. The suspect approached the two men and asked if they were gay.
The couple ignored the suspect, who continued to make derogatory statements about gay people. He then punched one of the men, knocking him to the platform, the police said. The suspect then ran off.
The altercation lasted only a few moments, the police said.
The victim, identified as a 39-year-old man from Clifton, N.J., suffered a broken nose, a fractured orbital bone and a cut above the eye that required stitches, the police said. He was treated at Lenox Hill Hospital and then released. His partner was not injured. The police released a sketch of the suspect on Thursday, based on the description by the victim and his partner.
Last year, the city grappled with an increase in the number of antigay attacks, including the shooting death of Mark Carson, 32, in May in Greenwich Village by a man who prosecutors say taunted him with homophobic slurs.
The assault on Sunday did not appear to be part of a pattern, the police said.
CARACAS, Venezuela — THE violent demonstrations that have rocked Venezuela for weeks are threatening to wipe out what little democracy is left here after 15 years of systematic erosion by the state. The government of Nicolás Maduro has responded with massive military force, raiding offices and houses without judicial orders, imprisoning civilians in military compounds and applauding the killing of protesters by paramilitary groups.
Yet the riots do not portend a Venezuelan Spring. For the government they are a welcome deflection of public attention from a faltering economy and rising crime. They may even invigorate this flaccid dictatorship.
The turmoil started on Feb. 4, after the sexual assault of a student ignited a protest on a university campus near the Colombian border. The National Guard responded with disproportionate force, and demonstrations multiplied throughout the country. A lot of rage was waiting to explode. In Mr. Maduro’s first year in office, Venezuela has experienced urban violence and shortages of basic goods usually associated with wartime. The annual rate of inflation, which exceeds 56 percent, is one of the highest in the world.
By March 5, when Mr. Maduro’s more-military-than-civilian government commemorated the first anniversary of the death of its revered comandante, Hugo Chávez, close to 20 people had died and more than 1,000 had been detained. Most of the prisoners were released within days, but some alleged being raped and tortured. Today, large rallies continue in the middle-class neighborhoods of all the main cities. The protesters, in a gesture mixing anarchic defiance and self-defense, block the streets with makeshift barricades, or guarimbas, and set them on fire. That only invites more violence from the National Guard and the colectivos, the Chavistas’ civilian militias.
By creating traffic jams and keeping bread and other basic groceries out of shops, the guarimbas also increase tensions between protesters and ordinary citizens. As I was writing this article, smoke filled the streets outside my family’s apartment; barricades were smoldering after another battle between protesters and the public forces. But we were lucky. In other neighborhoods, the National Guard and colectivos barged into buildings to come after protesters, arresting not just the hooded teenagers but infuriated housewives who insulted them for charging after demonstrators.
At this point, nobody — no political party, no social movement, no one leader — is in charge of the protests. The demonstrations have created a political crisis all right, but it is a crisis less for the government than for its opponents. After years of struggling to forge a coalition, the opposition seems divided again.
Beyond the students who started the protests, there are two main strands within the opposition. One is a group of hard-liners led by María Corina Machado, a congresswoman from an opposition stronghold in Caracas, and Leopoldo López, a former mayor of the anti-Chavista neighborhood of Chacao. They want the government to fall; their crowd is active in the streets and spews insults on Twitter at Chavistas and moderate anti-Chavistas alike. (Mr. López has been in military custody since Feb. 18 on charges of inciting violence.) Another opposition force is trying to keep alive the Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (Democratic Unity Roundtable), an umbrella group of anti-Chávez parties that believes in institutional politics.
At this point the radicals seem to be the most popular among protesters; they certainly are the loudest. And the more they scream, the more the security forces beat up demonstrators, and the more barricades the demonstrators set on fire. The situation is wildest in Táchira, where the uprising began and where violence and the scarcity of household goods have been more widespread for longer than in the rest of the country. There, the protests have spread from middle-class neighborhoods to the slums. Occasionally, a fighter jet crosses the sky.
Still, the revolt in Venezuela isn’t some Latin American version of the Arab Spring. Just one National Guard soldier has been killed so far; the demonstrators are not going after state forces. Instead, they build barricades and burn them, and cry out that they won’t accept a Cuban-style dictatorship. There is no group backing Venezuela’s protesters like the Muslim Brotherhood, with a platform, a network and the logistics to overthrow the current government. Despite what the Chavistas in power claim, repeating the tired leftist line about American meddling, these rallies and riots are not a conspiracy to topple an elected government. The hard-liners in the opposition who want regime change cannot drive Mr. Maduro from office, much less replace the sprawling Chavista establishment. The military remains firmly aligned with Mr. Chávez’s heirs.
The government shows no sign of buckling; nothing, its officials insist, can stop Mr. Chávez’s socialist revolution. If anything, the protests may inject new energy into a weak and inefficient dictatorship. The government seems to be biding its time until the silent majority gets impatient with the protesters. It is trying to borrow more money from China, its newest key ally, to restart the economy. It also appears to be reaching out to local business captains in the hopes of reviving agricultural production and industrial activity.
The violence will continue, meanwhile, even if this wave of protests is crushed under soldiers’ boots. I can see that in the rage of drivers who encounter blockades on their way home; in the curses that even neighbors exchange; in the decaying control of municipal authorities; in the myriad reports on social media about assaults, arson, break-ins, vandalism. Crime and out-of-control inflation will make life harder for almost everyone.
Venezuela has long been a country with no space for independent media, the rule of law or competitive politics. Now, it is also a country where thousands of protesters, absurdly, are taking orders via Twitter from a self-proclaimed prophet in Miami, Reinaldo dos Santos, who has announced Mr. Maduro’s fall. And it is a country where thousands of Chavistas are calling for jailing, exiling or disappearing the opponents of their repressive government. Venezuela isn’t undergoing a revolution. It is going mad.
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CHORNOMORSKOYE, Ukraine — Russian forces raided a Ukrainian naval missile base here in the darkness of early Monday, scaling its outer walls and outmatching the surprised sailors inside without firing a shot, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and people familiar with the raid.
The seizure was one of a series of swift but thus far bloodless escalations as Russia tightened its grip on Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that the Kremlin is leading toward secession from Ukraine by a combination of military and political moves.
Russian forces also infiltrated an air base at Novofedorivka and took up position along a runway; took over a military hospital in the regional capital, Simferopol; and moved onto a Ukrainian base used by a motorized battalion in Bakhchysaray.
Russian soldiers penetrated the last base after firing in the air, said Vladislav Seleznev, a Ukrainian military spokesman in Crimea. No one was reported hurt.
These emboldened actions played out while diplomacy stalled, with Russia asserting that it cannot accept the “fait accompli” of the new Western-backed government in Ukraine and that Western proposals to defuse the crisis used a “situation created by the coup as a starting point.”
A visual survey of the ongoing dispute, including satellite images of Russian naval positions and maps showing political, cultural and economic factors in the crisis.
That position came in a televised clip showing Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov briefing President Vladimir V. Putin about how Russia was preparing diplomatic counterproposals to serve “the interests of all Ukrainians.”
The United States and its allies have joined the Ukrainian government in declaring the Russian occupation of Crimea illegal and a Kremlin-backed referendum on whether Crimea should secede and seek to join Russia, set for Sunday, unconstitutional and nonbinding.
The military advances suggested how little influence the Western stance has had on the ground, and on the speed and tactical confidence with which Russia is consolidating its military position.
Here in Chornomorskoye, people familiar with the raid said that 200 to 250 Russian soldiers arrived outside the naval base’s walls early Monday morning and quickly scaled the fences and dropped inside.
The soldiers, variously described as members of Russian special forces or perhaps a paratrooper unit, rushed the base’s headquarters and seized the checkpoint at its entrance. They carried machine guns, automatic rifles, grenade launchers and sniper rifles, including new sniper rifles often carried by elite Russian units.
The Ukrainian naval contingent, perhaps 40 or 50 sailors and officers, belonged to a technical service that manages naval missiles and had only light weapons — mostly pistols and automatic rifles.
Outgunned and surprised, they did not resist, people familiar with the raid said. The Russian commander, described as a colonel, announced that “we are soldiers from the Russian Federation” who had come to protect the base and its equipment.
There were no further threats and no violence, people familiar with the raid said.
By daylight Monday, the Ukrainian sailors had placed their weapons in their armory and had been escorted off their base, leaving behind two officers, including the commander, a navy captain, to continue to negotiate with the occupying force.
Russian soldiers, some masked and others showing their faces, had complete control of the base. They could be seen guarding a main entrance beside a Russian military truck and roaming in knots among the buildings visible behind the gate.
A fire truck was also placed immediately behind the gate, ready to blast water at any protesting crowds. None appeared.
At one point, a lone Ukrainian sailor approached in civilian clothes, pressed his face against the fence and tried to draw the soldiers into an argument. “I serve here,” he said.
He made a brief effort to push his way back to his post, but two pro-Russian civilians grabbed him by the back of his collar and shoved him away. The soldiers watched, a few paces away, and chuckled. The apparent noncommissioned officer, who led the soldiers on guard duty, refused to answer questions from two journalists.
“No comment,” he said.
He added, “We will answer your questions after the referendum.”
Russian military forces also surrounded the Southern Naval Base, a Ukrainian installation on Donuzlav Bay, cutting off the troops inside and blocking the Konstantin Olshansky, an amphibious tank landing ship docked there.
(Last week, the Russians scuttled the Ochakov, a decommissioned ship, in the narrow entrance to the bay, effectively preventing the Konstantin Olshansky from leaving.)
The Russian soldiers at the base were supported with a backhoe, which they had used to settle in, digging fighting positions and piling a dirt wall around a large canvas tent.
Roughly 15 of the soldiers, armed and wearing masks, refused to answer questions and pushed journalists back toward the main road, walking behind them with weapons ready. “Go away,” their leader said.
In Chornomorskoye, the situation was tenser. A mix of about 20 local pro-Russian police officials and unidentified men in camouflage and ski masks abruptly intervened in an interview between two reporters and a local man.
The men demanded to know if the reporters were pro-Russian, then confiscated their notebooks and tore out any pages with writing on them. “We will translate these,” one of them said, pocketing the pages and handing back the now-blank notebooks.
They also examined the photographs in digital cards in a photographer’s cameras.
They clustered menacingly around the local man and said, “You keep giving interviews and you will end up in prison in Sevastopol,” the city on the peninsula’s southern shore that part of Russia’s Black Sea fleet uses as a home port.
They refused to allow the journalists to leave for about 15 minutes before ordering them to depart the city.
The Russian presence has been felt more heavily throughout Crimea as the referendum approaches, with at least five activists and journalists disappearing in the past two days.
Kateryna Butko a member of the Kiev-based opposition group AutoMaidan, as well as two journalists, Oleksandra Ryazantseva, an independent blogger, and Olena Maksymenko, a reporter with The Ukrainian Week, were stopped at a checkpoint on the Crimean border.
According to witnesses, the women were detained by masked men with guns and made to kneel at the side of the road, before being driven away to an unknown location. On Monday, AutoMaidan activists were searching Simferopol and Sevastopol fruitlessly for the women, who they believe are being held by local security services.
Andrei Shchekun and Antatoly Kovalsky, a trustee at a Ukrainian school in Simferopol, also disappeared on Sunday, hours before they were expected to speak at an antisecessionist rally. Mr. Kovalsky’s son said the men were abducted from the city’s train station by members of Russian Unity, the party headed by Crimea’s new separatist leader, Sergei Aksyonov.
“He’s been taken by these brigands that call themselves the authorities,” the son, Sergey Kovalsky, said.
Other Russian troops could be seen throughout the day and into Monday night, moving methodically down roads in convoys that included BTR armored personnel carriers, mobile electronic warfare vehicles and transport trucks with beds packed with troops in helmets. Their destinations were not clear.
In Yevpatoriya, on the peninsula’s west coast, a Ukrainian air defense base was presented an ultimatum in writing from the Russian-backed Crimean authorities, demanding that they set aside their weapons and cede the base by 10 p.m.
The deadline passed without incident.
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The protests in Ukraine and Venezuela have laid bare a new fault line in the 21st century. Along this fault line sit an increasingly globalized middle class, eager to link themselves with the West and modernity, and a corrupt ruling class that seeks to maintain ill-gotten privileges that are vestiges of a discredited past.
While no one wants to return to a Cold War era of confrontation and brinksmanship, the United States can benefit from the wisdom of some of the great Cold War presidents in confronting divides. First and foremost, they would advise that America and its allies cannot remain passive in the face of provocations by those who seek to oppress their people and their neighbors.
No one should be surprised that Viktor Yanukovych, the deposed Ukrainian president, chose an authoritarian alliance with his overseers in the Kremlin instead of opening his nation to the European Union. As the once closed doors of his ostentatious mansion are flung open, and the extent of his ill-gotten gains is revealed to his impoverished people, it becomes clear just how much Yanukovych had to lose from political and fiscal transparency.
This same dynamic exists in Venezuela, where protests have pitted middle-class students and urban dwellers against the Chavez-inspired government of Nicholas Maduro. Similar to Yanukovych and Vladimir Putin, Maduro and the heirs of the Chavez regime continue to enrich and empower themselves while the Venezuelan people suffer shortages of basic necessities, including food, medicine, and fuel—ironic for a hydrocarbon rich nation. The level of cronyism is evidenced by the fact that the Chavez children still occupy the Caracas presidential palace, living in luxury while many of their countrymen go hungry.
In both Ukraine and Venezuela—and Russia as well—the societies are thus divided between a political elite built around patronage and corruption, and an increasingly globally aligned middle class who yearn for economic reform and a voice in decisions regarding own destiny. This is the fault line of our times. The great Cold War presidents would be clear that America must stand firm on the side of those seeking freedom and dignity.
President Eisenhower also understood that economic strength was the wellspring of American power. For him, U.S. military might flowed from our fiscal vitality. Similarly, the United States can show power today by emphasizing why our free and open markets are superior to cronyism and corruption. While economic sanctions appear to be an easy tool for confronting these nations, there is more to gain through economic exchange that empowers middle classes and intellectual elites.
President Kennedy insisted on a flexible U.S. military and the full spectrum of options it afforded. He felt it was important to demonstrate that the United States could conduct military operations that went beyond the deployment of massive U.S. conventional or strategic nuclear forces. In today’s environment, he might advise the Pentagon to use U.S. Special Forces, training missions, and military assistance to build the capabilities of allied nations. During the Bay of Pigs, Kennedy learned the limitations of covert action, but he continued to support tools like the Green Berets. He would likely applaud Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel’s current defense budget and guidance, which emphasizes Special Forces and nonconventional capabilities such as cyber-warfare. There is also wisdom for the ages in Kennedy’s pledge, in his 1961 inaugural address, to both allies and the oppressed:
“To those old allies whose cultural and spiritual origins we share, we pledge the loyalty of faithful friends. United, there is little we cannot do in a host of cooperative ventures. Divided, there is little we can do—for we dare not meet a powerful challenge at odds and split asunder. To those peoples … across the globe struggling to break the bonds of mass misery, we pledge our best efforts to help them help themselves, for whatever period is required.”
Finally, President Reagan understood the importance of balancing strength with the flexibility to exploit political openings presented by rivals. While the beginning of his administration was marked by a military and diplomatic effort to push back against Soviet expansion and nuclear blackmail, when Mikhail Gorbachev presented an opening for reform and negotiation, Reagan seized the opportunity.
In doing so, he set in motion the events that led to victory in the Cold War, successfully breaching the divide of Reagan’s time that kept hundreds of millions of Eastern Europeans enslaved by Soviet tyranny. Reagan also set up the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a grant-making semi-independent organization under USAID that promotes democracy. Reagan might have advised that Putin be given a face-saving opportunity to roll back his oppression and rejoin the community of nations.
Reagan might also have favored encouraging the use of NED as an independent organization, to give the United States the flexibility to act proactively in a changing strategic environment to bring Venezuela and Ukraine back into the American orbit.
In addressing the challenge presented by Putin and his erstwhile comrades, it is most important for the United States to reestablish its leadership. Our allies do not want a return to Cold War geopolitics, but they still look to Washington as the one capital that can rally the West to collective action against a common threat.
The American people are tired of war and recession, but we cannot retreat from our responsibilities and our role as a global leader. If the collective voices of our greatest Cold War presidents could impart one lesson of history, it would likely be that when people anywhere stand up and fight for freedom and justice, the United States, and American power, must stand with them.
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People shout slogans during a pro-Russia rally in Donetsk, Ukraine, on Sunday, March 9. Pro-Russian forces have taken control of Ukraine's autonomous Crimean region, prompting criticism from Western nations and the Ukrainian interim government. The standoff has revived concerns of a return to Cold War relations.
Ukrainian police detain a demonstrator during a pro-Russian rally in Donetsk on March 9.
Pro-Russia protesters remove a Ukrainian flag from a flagpole taken from a government building in Donetsk on March 9.
Cossacks and other pro-Russian forces stand guard outside a government building in Simferopol, Ukraine, Crimea's capital, on Saturday, March 8.
Ukrainian soldiers load armored personnel carriers into boxcars in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv on March 8.
Armed men believed to be Russian military march in the village outside Simferopol on Friday, March 7.
Pro-Russia protesters demonstrate outside the Belbek Air Base outside Sevastopol, Ukraine, on Thursday, March 6.
A Ukrainian navy officer looks at the scuttled, decommissioned Russian vessel Ochakov from the Black Sea shore outside the town of Myrnyi, Ukraine, on March 6. Russian naval personnel scuttled the ship, blockading access for five Ukrainian naval vessels.
A member of the Russian military patrols around Perevalne, Ukraine, on March 6.
Servicemen guard a checkpoint at a Ukrainian Navy base in Perevalnoe, Crimea, on March 6.
Ukrainian troops guard the Belbek air base outside Sevastopol, Ukraine, on March 6.
A woman walks past barricades on March 6 that were set up by anti-government protesters in Kiev's Independence Square.
A sailor guards the Ukrainian Navy ship Slavutych in the Bay of Sevastopol on Wednesday, March 5.
People wait in line for food distribution in Independence Square on March 5.
Ukrainian sailors carry meat to their vessel in the Sevastopol harbor on March 5.
Riot police stand at the entrance of a regional administrative building during a rally in Donetsk, Ukraine, on March 5.
A Ukrainian police officer gives instructions to members of the media in front of the business class lounge of the Simferopol airport on March 5.
Pro-Russia demonstrators wave a Russian flag after storming a regional administrative building in Donetsk on March 5.
Demonstrators break a police barrier as they storm a regional administrative building in Donetsk on March 5.
Ukrainian military recruits line up to receive instructions in Kiev's Independence Square on Tuesday, March 4.
People stand on the Ukrainian Navy ship Slavutich while it's at harbor in Sevastopol on March 4. Mattresses were placed over the side of the ship to hinder any attempted assault.
Ukrainian troops watch as a Russian navy ship blocks the entrance of the Ukrainian navy base in Sevastopol on March 4.
A woman photographs pro-Russian soldiers guarding Ukraine's infantry base in Perevalnoye, Ukraine, on March 4.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, wearing a blue scarf, visits a shrine March 4 for the people who were killed during anti-government protests in Kiev last month.
Yuli Mamchun, the commander of the Ukrainian military garrison at the Belbek air base near Sevastopol, salutes on March 4.
Russian soldiers stand guard at the Belbek air base on March 4.
Ukrainian military members march at the Belbek air base on March 4.
Russian soldiers fire warning shots to keep back Ukrainian military members at the Belbek air base on March 4.
A Ukrainian airman puts the Ukrainian national flag over the gate of the Belbek air base as they guard what's left under their control on March 4.
Russian soldiers aim a grenade launcher and machine gun as they guard positions at the Belbek air base on March 4.
Ukrainian seamen stand guard on the Ukrainian navy ship Slavutich in the Sevastopol harbor on Monday, March 3.
Oleg, a Ukrainian soldier, kisses his girlfriend, Svetlana, through the gates of the Belbek base entrance on March 3. Tensions are high at the base, where Ukrainian soldiers were standing guard inside the building while alleged Russian gunmen were standing guard outside the gates.
Wives of Ukrainian soldiers walk past Russian soldiers to visit their husbands guarding a military base in Perevalnoye on March 3.
A Russian soldier guards an area outside Ukraine's military base in the village of Perevalnoye on March 3.
A sailor looks out a window near the entrance to the Ukrainian navy headquarters in Sevastopol on March 3.
Armed men in military uniform walk outside a Ukrainian military unit near Simferopol on Sunday, March 2. Hundreds of armed men in trucks and armored vehicles surrounded the Ukrainian base Sunday in Crimea, blocking its soldiers from leaving.
Soldiers walk outside a Ukrainian military base in Perevalne, Ukraine, as a local resident waves a Russian flag March 2.
Demonstrators shout during a rally in Kiev's Independence Square on March 2.
Ukrainian soldiers, left, and unidentified gunmen, right, stand at the gate of an infantry base in Perevalnoye on March 2.
Ukrainian soldiers guard a gate of an infantry base in Perevalnoye on March 2.
A woman cries during a rally in Independence Square on March 2.
Protesters hold flags of the United States, Germany and Italy during a rally in Independence Square on March 2.
People attend a morning prayer service at Independence Square on March 2.
A soldier and a truck driver unload bread outside the Ukranian navy headquarters in Sevastopol, Ukraine, on March 2.
Heavily armed troops, displaying no identifying insignia and who were mingling with local pro-Russian militants, stand guard outside a local government building in Simferopol, Ukraine, on March 2.
A woman waits in front of unidentified men in military fatigues who were blocking a base of the Ukrainian frontier guard unit in Balaklava, Ukraine, on Saturday, March 1.
U.S. President Barack Obama, in the Oval Office of the White House, talks on the phone March 1 with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Troops stand guard in Balaklava on March 1.
Heavily armed soldiers displaying no identifying insignia maintain watch in Simferopol, Ukraine, on March 1.
People gather around the coffin of a man who was killed during clashes with riot police in Independence Square.
Pro-Russian activists hold Russian flags during a rally in the center of Donetsk, Ukraine, on March 1.
Pro-Russian activists clash with Maidan supporters as they storm the regional government building in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 1.
A protester stands at a memorial March 1 for the people killed in clashes at Independence Square.
Armed men patrol outside the Simferopol International Airport in Ukraine's Crimea region on Friday, February 28. Simferopol is the regional capital.
An image provided to CNN by a local resident shows Russian tanks on the move in Sevastopol, Ukraine.
Russian troops block a road February 28 toward the military airport in Sevastopol, Ukraine. The Russian Black Sea Fleet is based at the port city of Sevastopol.
Armed men stand guard in front of a building near the Simferopol airport on February 28.
An armed man wearing no identifying insignia patrols outside Simferopol International Airport on February 28.
Police stand guard outside the Crimea regional parliament building Thursday, February 27, in Simferopol. Armed men seized the regional government administration building and parliament in Crimea.
Police intervene as Russian supporters gather in front of the parliament building in Simferopol on February 27.
A man adds fuel to a fire at a barricade in Independence Square on February 27. Dozens of people were killed last week during clashes between security forces and protesters.
Pro-Russia demonstrators wave Russian and Crimean flags in front of a local government building in Simferopol on February 27.
Barricades in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 27 hold a banner that reads: "Crimea Russia." There's a broad divide between those who support the pro-Western developments in Kiev and those who back Russia's continued influence in Crimea and across Ukraine.
Protesters stand in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 27. Tensions have simmered in the Crimea region since the Ukrainian president's ouster.
Protesters in support of the president's ouster rally in Independence Square, which has been the center of opposition, on Wednesday, February 26.
Security forces stand guard during clashes between opposing sides in front of Crimea's parliament building in Simferopol on February 26.
Pro-Russian demonstrators, right, clash with anti-Russian protesters in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 26.
A police officer gets pulled into a crowd of Crimean Tatars in Simferopol on February 26. The Tatars, an ethnic minority group deported during the Stalin era, is rallying in support of Ukraine's interim government.
A man places flowers at a barricade near Independence Square on February 26.
On February 26 in Kiev, A woman holds a photograph of a protester killed during the height of tensions.
Police guard a government building in Donetsk on February 26.
Protesters remove a fence that surrounds Ukraine's parliament in Kiev on February 26.
People sing the Ukrainian national anthem at Independence Square on Monday, February 24.
Gas masks used by protesters sit next to a barricade in Independence Square on February 24.
A woman cries February 24 near a memorial for the people killed in Kiev.
People wave a large Ukrainian flag in Independence Square on Sunday, February 23.
Two pro-government supporters are made to pray February 23 in front of a shrine to dead anti-government protesters.
A man and his daughter lay flowers at a memorial for protesters killed in Independence Square.
Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko speaks at Independence Square on Saturday, February 22, hours after being released from prison. Tymoshenko, considered a hero of a 2004 revolution against Yanukovych, was released after 2½ years behind bars.
Tymoshenko is greeted by supporters shortly after being freed from prison in Kharkiv on February 22.
A protester guards the entrance to Yanukovych's abandoned residence outside Kiev on February 22.
Anti-government protesters guard the streets next to the presidential offices in Kiev on February 22.
Anti-government protesters drive a military vehicle in Independence Square on February 22. Many protesters said they wouldn't leave the square until Yanukovych resigned.
Ukrainian lawmakers argue during a session of Parliament on Friday, February 21.
Men in Kiev carry a casket containing the body of a protester killed in clashes with police.
Protesters cheer after news of an agreement between the opposing sides in Kiev on February 21.
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Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
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STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Michael Oren: While U.S. focused on mediation in Middle East, Russia acted in Crimea
- He says Russia has influence with Syria and relations with Iran could upend strategy on nukes
- Russia has played its cards well, while U.S. risks being outmaneuvered, he says
- Oren: U.S. should reassert itself in the Middle East and move to protect its allies
Editor's note: Michael Oren is the former Israeli ambassador to the United States. His books include "Power, Faith, and Fantasy: America in the Middle East: 1776 to the Present."
(CNN) -- Condoleezza Rice, secretary of state under President George W. Bush, traveled 23 times to the Middle East in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to mediate an Israeli-Palestinian accord.
Meanwhile, the Russians invaded Georgia.
President Barack Obama's secretary of state, John Kerry, has shuttled 11 times to the region in search of the same elusive goal. And while American diplomacy was once again focused elsewhere, the Russians invaded Ukraine.
Michael Oren
Now, in an effort to curb Russia, the United States is pausing from its efforts to forge an Israeli-Palestinian peace to generate international pressure on the Kremlin. But the pivot may prove impossible, as the issues of Russian expansionism and the stability of the Middle East remain dangerously intertwined.
Late last year, Obama faced a daunting choice. Retaliate militarily for the use of chemical weapons by Syria and anger a war-weary American public or fail to enforce his own red line and severely damage his credibility.
Either way, it seemed, Obama lost. Enter the Russians. As the unswerving supporter of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, Russian President Vladimir Putin alone had the leverage to mediate between Washington and Damascus. Through his cooperation, an arrangement was made for shipping al-Assad's chemical weapons abroad. All sides claimed a victory. And while Syria has so far parted with only a small portion of its chemical arsenal, Obama still cites the agreement as a foreign policy triumph.
Whether in Syria or with Iran, Russia has played its relatively weak strategic hand exceedingly well and is threatening to outmaneuver the United States in the Middle East.
Michael Oren
Michael Oren
That success could yet turn sour, however, if Russia backs out of the deal.
In reprisal for punitive actions against Moscow, Putin could enable al-Assad to keep his chemical arms and quietly encourage him to use them. Vividly redrawn, Obama's red line would be flagrantly crossed. The American public would still oppose any military response, and America's enemies in the Middle East could revel in their newly affirmed impunity.
Putin's ability to exploit the Syria civil war to weaken and embarrass the United States pales beside the damage he can inflict on America through Iran.
Russian cooperation has been crucial to maintaining the unity of the permanent Security Council members and Germany -- collectively known by the mathematical name P5+1 -- in levying heavy sanctions on Iran and reaching an interim agreement on its nuclear program.
Held up as an historic achievement by the Obama administration, both the sanctions and the nuclear agreement would be undermined by a Russian decision to pull out of the the P5+1 framework and embark on a separate course of unrestricted trade with Tehran.
While pledging to keep "all options on the table" with Iran, the United States clearly wants to avoid the use of force. But stripped of all nonviolent alternatives, the U.S. would have to resort to military action to prevent Iran from getting the bomb.
Expert: We need a 'Plan B' for Ukraine
Pro-Russian forces muscle into base
Breaking up with Vladimir Putin
Why Ukraine crisis matters to Mideast
Whether in Syria or with Iran, Russia has played its relatively weak strategic hand exceedingly well and is threatening to outmaneuver the United States in the Middle East.
Though no longer able to dispatch the great blue water fleet that once challenged American hegemony in the Eastern Mediterranean, Russia is once again asserting its influence in the region. And the reason is simple. While American policy has concentrated on the soft power of mediation --much of it fruitless -- Russia has invested in the hard power of military assistance and intervention.
America has publicly warned that it may not be able to defend the Jewish state from international boycotts related to the peace process. And Washington has disappointed Israelis and Arab Gulf states by easing sanctions on Iran and striking an interim agreement on its nuclear program.
Russia, by contrast, stands staunchly behind Syria. America's allies worry whether they might stand alone. Russia's allies do not. The advantage, then, goes to Russia.
The erosion can only be stopped -- and Russian expansionism checked -- by the reassertion of American preeminence. One way to do that is to aid moderate Syrian rebels. Another way is to emphasize America's determination to stop Iran from going nuclear by all measures, diplomatic and military, irrespective of Russia's stand. And America must take steps to restore confidence in its dependability as an ally.
This is not the first time that Middle East tensions have been linked to Russian ambitions in the Black Sea. Back in 1853, competition between Russia and the Western powers in Jerusalem triggered a war over Russia's control of the Crimea.
Britain and France eventually stopped Russia, but only at an immense material and human cost.
Today, conversely, the struggle over Crimea could further escalate Middle Eastern conflicts and lead to even greater violence. But that outcome can still be prevented -- not by war, but by reasserting tough American policies in the Middle East, protecting American power in the region and reassuring America's friends.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Michael Oren.
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Tensions between the United States and Russia over the crisis in Crimea have exploded into an open row as Russia rejects U.S. diplomatic efforts to solve the impasse.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Kerry postpones a meeting with Putin, says Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov
- Meeting would have marked highest-level contact between the two nations over Crimea
- Kerry presented a proposal to Lavrov in Paris on Wednesday
- Official: U.S. has yet to receive an official answer from Moscow about Kerry proposals
Washington (CNN) -- Tensions between the United States and Russia over the crisis in Crimea have exploded into an open row as Russia rejects U.S. diplomatic efforts to solve the impasse.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Monday that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry postponed a face-to-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss American proposals, which Moscow has effectively rejected, on solving the crisis.
The meeting, which Russia said was supposed to happen Monday, would have marked the highest-level contact between the two countries since Russian troops took up positions in Crimea, and would have come ahead of Sunday's potentially explosive vote on whether Crimea should split from Ukraine and join Russia.
But Kerry told Lavrov he needed to know Moscow would engage seriously on a diplomatic solution before meeting with the Russian leader. He also wanted to see and end to Russia's "provocative steps" before traveling to Russia.
Expert: We need a 'Plan B' for Ukraine
Pro-Russian forces muscle into base
What Bush admin. got wrong on Russia
Relations between Russia and the West have grown increasingly tense since Russian soldiers seized effective control of the pro-Russian region. The United States and other European powers have threatened possible sanctions in response to Russia's moves, but Moscow has shown little sign of backing down.
A senior U.S. official said a proposal, which Kerry presented to Lavrov in Paris on Wednesday, summarized several rounds of talks Kerry and his counterparts from Britain, France and Germany held separately with Lavrov and Ukraine's foreign minister. Because Lavrov was not authorized to negotiate in Paris, Kerry gave him the list of ideas to take back to Putin.
According to the senior U.S. official, the Kerry proposal calls for Russian troops to return to their barracks and for the disarming of so-called "self-defense" militias in Crimea who, although they don't wear insignia, are believed to be Russian. International monitors would be dispatched to Crimea and other parts of Ukraine as part of the proposed plan.
Washington also insisted Moscow drop plans in the Duma to annex Crimea and end its support for next Sunday's referendum by Crimeans to join Russia. The U.S. also wants Russia to support a deal between the new Ukrainian government and the International Monetary Fund on a program to shore up the country's fragile economy.
The plan hinges on talks between Russia and Ukraine on ending the crisis. Kerry and the British, French and German foreign ministers spent the better part of Wednesday trying unsuccessfully to get Lavrov to meet with Ukraine's foreign minister, who flew on Kerry's plane from Paris to Kiev.
Because Russia does not recognize the new Ukrainian government, Lavrov was reluctant to sit down with the foreign minister for direct talks.
U.S. and its European allies have proposed the two sides could talk as part of a "contact group" which also includes the U.S., Britain, France and Germany
The Kerry plan also integrated some elements of the February 21 deal to end the standoff between protestors in Kiev and former President Viktor Yanukovich. Even though Moscow never joined Germany, Poland, and the United Kingdom in signing the pact, it had some concessions to Russia, including a national unity government, a return to the constitution and early elections.
On Friday, U.S. President Barack Obama and President Putin spoke by phone and agreed that Kerry and Lavrov will continue talking to try and find a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Later that day, Lavrov called Kerry and invited him to Sochi for a meeting with Putin on Monday. Kerry said he would think about it, but that disturbing developments on the ground in Ukraine and Crimea were closing the space for diplomacy.
When they spoke again on Saturday, Kerry told Lavrov he wasn't ready to meet with Putin. The two of them needed to make more progress on their own talks, Kerry said. Furthermore, Kerry said Russian military moves on the ground and discussions about the referendum in Crimea and the Duma's plans to annex the region would make negotiations difficult.
Kerry sent a refined proposal to Lavrov after that Saturday phone call, described as a list of questions to get a better understanding of the Russian position. Lavrov traveled to Sochi on Sunday to discuss the one-and-a-half page document with Putin.
The official said that the U.S. government has yet to receive an official answer from Moscow about the ideas.
But Russia seems uninterested in the U.S. concept of sitting down with the Ukrainian government.
In a televised meeting with Putin Monday, Lavrov said even Kerry's revised proposal still fell short and "raises many questions on our side" because the starting point is acceptance of the "coup d'état" that overthrew Yanukovich.
"The document contains an approach which doesn't quite suit us, as the entire wording suggests there is a conflict between Russia and Ukraine," Lavrov said, adding that Russia would be submitting counterproposals to the American plan.
"We prepared, together with members of the Russian Security Council, our counterproposals. They aim to resolve the situation on the basis of international law and take into account the interests of all Ukrainians without exception," he said.
The Obama administration seems reluctant for Kerry to travel to Russia for a meeting with Putin that could deliver very little.
Kerry is prepared to take part in talks "if and when we see concrete evidence that Russia is prepared to engage" with Washington's proposals, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said, adding that Russia must engage in talks with the Ukrainians.
"The point is we're not just going to walk into something, where they're just going to say `no, no, no' to everything and we've traveled all the way there. We're not going to do that," another senior U.S. official added.
The White House said President Obama would meet Ukraine's new prime minister in Washington on Wednesday, warning Moscow would face even more outside pressure if it took any further steps toward annexing Crimea.
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For Crimea’s Tatars, Fear, Defiance Take Hold
The dispute over the Ukrainian republic of Crimea has largely pitted Ukraine against Russia. But the region’s ethnic Tatars may have the most to lose. VOA’s Elizabeth Arrott has more from Crimean town of Bakhchisarai.
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NATO says it is deploying reconnaissance aircraft along the borders of member states Poland and Romania, to monitor the crisis in nearby Ukraine.
The Western military alliance said the decision to send AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control Systems) surveillance planes was made on Monday, with the approval of the 28 members. It said the deployment is designed "to enhance the alliance's situational awareness."
Last week, NATO said it was launching a review of all military cooperation with Russia, in response to what witnesses describe as a massive Russian military incursion into Ukraine's Crimean peninsula.
U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel also announced a new deployment of U.S. fighter jets to patrol Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia -- the three allied Baltic nations sharing a border with Russia. Additionally, a U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer is set to begin Black Sea maneuvers with Romanian and Bulgarian warships in the coming days.
Moscow has officially denied that its troops are participating in the Crimean occupation. But witnesses say military personnel in unmarked uniforms arrived in Russian-registered vehicles earlier this month and freely admit to to being Russian.
The Western military alliance said the decision to send AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control Systems) surveillance planes was made on Monday, with the approval of the 28 members. It said the deployment is designed "to enhance the alliance's situational awareness."
Last week, NATO said it was launching a review of all military cooperation with Russia, in response to what witnesses describe as a massive Russian military incursion into Ukraine's Crimean peninsula.
U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel also announced a new deployment of U.S. fighter jets to patrol Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia -- the three allied Baltic nations sharing a border with Russia. Additionally, a U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer is set to begin Black Sea maneuvers with Romanian and Bulgarian warships in the coming days.
Moscow has officially denied that its troops are participating in the Crimean occupation. But witnesses say military personnel in unmarked uniforms arrived in Russian-registered vehicles earlier this month and freely admit to to being Russian.
UNITED NATIONS — The U.N. Security Council met on Ukraine Monday for a fifth time in 10 days, as international concerns grow that Russia is getting closer to annexing Ukraine’s Crimea region. Ukraine’s interim prime minister also may come to New York this week to seek U.N. support ahead of Sunday’s referendum.
The 15-nation Council met in a private meeting and was briefed on developments by U.N. political chief Jeffrey Feltman and Ukraine’s U.N. Ambassador Yuriy Sergeyev.
Council president, Luxembourg Ambassador Sylvie Lucas, told reporters after the session that many Council members reiterated the need for a de-escalation of the situation and called for respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence.
She said a number of Council members said the decision of the Supreme Council of Crimea to hold a referendum this Sunday on seceding from Ukraine violates the country’s constitution and is, therefore, illegal.
France’s ambassador, Gérard Araud, warned that the situation is worsening by the day.
“The Russian army is reinforcing its presence in Crimea. The Russian army is now besieging and storming installations of the Ukrainian army," he said. "The Ukrainian [television] channels are cut. And now we have this referendum actually organized by Russia.”
He called on Moscow to enter negotiations, saying if Russia annexes Crimea it would be “extremely serious” and negatively impact international relations.
British Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant said Russia is becoming more isolated. He called on Moscow to pull back its troops and let international monitors into Crimea.
“At the same time as Russia claims to be concerned about the threats to Russian speakers in Ukraine and others in Crimea, they are not actually allowing in any international observers -- whose job is precisely to report on what is actually happening,” he said.
He said U.N. political chief Jeffrey Feltman and other observers who have entered Crimea say they have not seen any particular threat to Russian speakers, and that tensions are actually high because of Russia’s military actions.
Ukraine’s Western-backed interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk will be in the United States this week trying to rally support for his government and the restoration of Crimea to Kyiv’s control. He is expected to meet with President Barack Obama Wednesday and come to the United Nations Thursday or Friday.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed his increasing alarm about the situation, saying that events in the Crimea have deepened the crisis. He urged all sides to refrain from “hasty actions and provocative rhetoric.”
Ban dispatched the head of his New York human rights office, Ivan Simonovic, to Kyiv last week. Simonovic has been holding meetings with various players and is expected to travel to the Crimea. Another U.N. envoy, Robert Serry, was threatened by armed men in Crimea last week and forced to leave the region.
The 15-nation Council met in a private meeting and was briefed on developments by U.N. political chief Jeffrey Feltman and Ukraine’s U.N. Ambassador Yuriy Sergeyev.
Council president, Luxembourg Ambassador Sylvie Lucas, told reporters after the session that many Council members reiterated the need for a de-escalation of the situation and called for respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence.
She said a number of Council members said the decision of the Supreme Council of Crimea to hold a referendum this Sunday on seceding from Ukraine violates the country’s constitution and is, therefore, illegal.
France’s ambassador, Gérard Araud, warned that the situation is worsening by the day.
“The Russian army is reinforcing its presence in Crimea. The Russian army is now besieging and storming installations of the Ukrainian army," he said. "The Ukrainian [television] channels are cut. And now we have this referendum actually organized by Russia.”
He called on Moscow to enter negotiations, saying if Russia annexes Crimea it would be “extremely serious” and negatively impact international relations.
British Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant said Russia is becoming more isolated. He called on Moscow to pull back its troops and let international monitors into Crimea.
“At the same time as Russia claims to be concerned about the threats to Russian speakers in Ukraine and others in Crimea, they are not actually allowing in any international observers -- whose job is precisely to report on what is actually happening,” he said.
He said U.N. political chief Jeffrey Feltman and other observers who have entered Crimea say they have not seen any particular threat to Russian speakers, and that tensions are actually high because of Russia’s military actions.
Ukraine’s Western-backed interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk will be in the United States this week trying to rally support for his government and the restoration of Crimea to Kyiv’s control. He is expected to meet with President Barack Obama Wednesday and come to the United Nations Thursday or Friday.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed his increasing alarm about the situation, saying that events in the Crimea have deepened the crisis. He urged all sides to refrain from “hasty actions and provocative rhetoric.”
Ban dispatched the head of his New York human rights office, Ivan Simonovic, to Kyiv last week. Simonovic has been holding meetings with various players and is expected to travel to the Crimea. Another U.N. envoy, Robert Serry, was threatened by armed men in Crimea last week and forced to leave the region.
Read the whole story
· ·
The crisis in Ukraine has captured global attention and is generating a wide spectrum of opinion on its causes and solutions. Newspapers, blogs and other media are publishing a variety of commentaries and editorials on what’s to be done and who’s to blame.
Each day, VOA will curate a selection of these editorial opinions, highlight selections, and offer them for our readers’ consideration.
The opinions expressed below are, of course, those of the authors, not the Voice of America.
"Putin's Pique"
"Will America Heed the Wake-Up Call of Ukraine?"
"President Putin, a former KGB agent, has said that the collapse of the evil empire was "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the 20th century. That alone should have been a clue to this White House that misspelled reset buttons weren't going to cut it. But they were too stuck in the past to see it."
"Western Leaders Cannot Face a Looming War." Editorial by Robert Fisk, Middle East correspondent, published in The Independent.
"The 'crisis' or the war 'looming' in the Ukraine is of great interest to someone who lives not a hundred miles from my home: President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, who will have been much relieved to see Putin leap to the rescue of Russian Ukraine as firmly as he did for Syria.
"Indeed, Assad, according to his government, has even sent a telegram to Putin – do people still send 'telegrams', by the way? – in which he 'expressed ... Syria’s solidarity with Putin’s efforts to restore security and stability to Ukraine in the face of attempted coups against legitimacy and democracy in favour of radical terrorists'.
"Syria was committed, Assad said, to 'President Putin’s rational, peace-loving approach that seeks to establish a global system supporting stability and fighting'.
"Makes you draw in your breath a bit, doesn’t it? The Russkies are not going to be shaking in their boots at sanctions. Punishing Russians and Ukrainians involved in Russia’s move into the Crimea will be a 'useful tool', said Obama – though why the US President has to use the language of computer geeks to threaten Moscow is beyond me.
"But that’s what it’s all about, isn’t it? We can’t have war 'looming'. It would destroy all our internets and computers and live-time news and globalisation and 'tools'. They’ll patch something up, a political gig to let Russia gobble part of Ukraine but still calling it a federated republic. Pity about the Tatars. Peace in our time."
Each day, VOA will curate a selection of these editorial opinions, highlight selections, and offer them for our readers’ consideration.
The opinions expressed below are, of course, those of the authors, not the Voice of America.
"Putin's Pique"
Comment by David Remnick, editor of
The New Yorker
, published in
The New Yorker.
"Right now, Putin retains his familiar strut and disdain. His opposition at home is on tenterhooks, fearing a comprehensive crackdown, and the West, which dreams of his coöperation in Syria and Iran, is reluctant to press him too hard.
"But it may be that his adventure in Crimea—and not the American Embassy in Moscow—will undo him. Last month, a Kremlin-sponsored poll showed that seventy-three per cent of Russians opposed interfering in the political confrontations in Kiev.
"The Kremlin has proved since that it has the means, and the media, to gin up support for Putin’s folly—but that won’t last indefinitely.
"In other words, Putin risks alienating himself not only from the West and Ukraine, to say nothing of the global economy he dearly wants to join, but from Russia itself. His dreams of staying in office until 2024, of being the most formidable state-builder in Russian history since Peter the Great, may yet founder on the peninsula of Crimea."
"Will America Heed the Wake-Up Call of Ukraine?"
Opinion editorial by Condoleeza Rice, former U.S. Secretary of State, published in the
Washington Post
.
"The immediate concern must be to show Russia that further moves will not be tolerated and that Ukraine’s territorial integrity is sacrosanct. Diplomatic isolation, asset freezes and travel bans against oligarchs are appropriate.
"The announcement of
air defense exercises with the Baltic states
and the movement of a
U.S. destroyer to the Black Sea
bolster our allies, as does economic help for Ukraine’s embattled leaders, who must put aside their internal divisions and govern their country.
"The longer-term task is to answer Putin’s statement about Europe’s post-Cold War future. He is saying that Ukraine will never be free to make its own choices — a message meant to reverberate in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states — and that Russia has special interests it will pursue at all costs.
"For Putin, the Cold War ended “tragically.” He will turn the clock back as far as intimidation through military power, economic leverage and Western inaction will allow."
"Pushing the Reset Button With Russia, Again." Editorial written by Jonah Goldberg, editor-at-large with the National Review, published in the Houston Chronicle.
"My old boss, William F. Buckley, responding to claims that the U.S. and the Soviets were morally equivalent, said that if one man pushes an old lady into an oncoming bus and another man pushes an old lady out of the way of a bus, we should not denounce them both as the sorts of men who push old ladies around.
"For Putin, the Cold War ended “tragically.” He will turn the clock back as far as intimidation through military power, economic leverage and Western inaction will allow."
"Pushing the Reset Button With Russia, Again." Editorial written by Jonah Goldberg, editor-at-large with the National Review, published in the Houston Chronicle.
"My old boss, William F. Buckley, responding to claims that the U.S. and the Soviets were morally equivalent, said that if one man pushes an old lady into an oncoming bus and another man pushes an old lady out of the way of a bus, we should not denounce them both as the sorts of men who push old ladies around.
:While America surely made mistakes during the near half-century 'twilight struggle,' the simple fact is that there was a right side and a wrong side to that conflict, and we were on the right side of it.
"The Soviet Union murdered millions of its own people, stifled freedom in nearly every form, enslaved whole nations and actively tried to undermine democracy all around the world, including in the U.S.
"The Soviet Union murdered millions of its own people, stifled freedom in nearly every form, enslaved whole nations and actively tried to undermine democracy all around the world, including in the U.S.
"President Putin, a former KGB agent, has said that the collapse of the evil empire was "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the 20th century. That alone should have been a clue to this White House that misspelled reset buttons weren't going to cut it. But they were too stuck in the past to see it."
"Western Leaders Cannot Face a Looming War." Editorial by Robert Fisk, Middle East correspondent, published in The Independent.
"The 'crisis' or the war 'looming' in the Ukraine is of great interest to someone who lives not a hundred miles from my home: President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, who will have been much relieved to see Putin leap to the rescue of Russian Ukraine as firmly as he did for Syria.
"Indeed, Assad, according to his government, has even sent a telegram to Putin – do people still send 'telegrams', by the way? – in which he 'expressed ... Syria’s solidarity with Putin’s efforts to restore security and stability to Ukraine in the face of attempted coups against legitimacy and democracy in favour of radical terrorists'.
"Syria was committed, Assad said, to 'President Putin’s rational, peace-loving approach that seeks to establish a global system supporting stability and fighting'.
"Makes you draw in your breath a bit, doesn’t it? The Russkies are not going to be shaking in their boots at sanctions. Punishing Russians and Ukrainians involved in Russia’s move into the Crimea will be a 'useful tool', said Obama – though why the US President has to use the language of computer geeks to threaten Moscow is beyond me.
"But that’s what it’s all about, isn’t it? We can’t have war 'looming'. It would destroy all our internets and computers and live-time news and globalisation and 'tools'. They’ll patch something up, a political gig to let Russia gobble part of Ukraine but still calling it a federated republic. Pity about the Tatars. Peace in our time."
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Russia on Monday accused far-right activists in Ukraine and the pro-Western Kyiv government of creating "chaos" in Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, as pro-Russian forces continued seizing Ukrainian military bases in the Crimean peninsula.
A Russian Foreign Ministry statement, which singled out the far-right Ukrainian group "Right Sector," also accused Western governments of ignoring the violence. The statement came as the Ukrainian Defense Department said armed men in uniforms surrounded and seized a Crimean naval base at Chernomorskoye, and a military hospital in Simferopol.
The New York Times said police interrupted an interview with a local man in Chernomorskoye, threatening its reporters and seizing their notes.
Ukrainian interim prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk meets Wednesday at the White House with President Barack Obama. A White House statement Monday said the visit will highlight the strong support of the United States for the people of Ukraine, and will include talks on economic aid and preparations for May elections in Ukraine.
The U.S. State Department Monday called on Russia to show evidence it is ready to engage on U.S. diplomatic proposals to end the Ukraine crisis. Spokeswoman Jen Psaki also said it is possible that Secretary of State John Kerry could meet this week with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, if he is convinced that Moscow is prepared to hold substantive talks.
For his part, Lavrov, speaking on Russian television, complained that the U.S. proposals amounted to "moving forward on the basis of a situation born out of a state coup." Moscow has consistently described the ouster of former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych as the illegal overthrow of a legitimate head of state.
Russian news agencies say Mr. Yanukovych is expected on Tuesday to make his second public appearance since fleeing Kyiv last month as anti-government protesters laid siege to the capital.
In Kyiv Monday, U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt also reiterated that Washington will not recognize the results of a Crimean referendum set for Sunday on whether residents of the peninsula will join Russia or remain a part of Ukraine with greater autonomy.
Former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul told VOA the annexation will "isolate Russia from the rest of the world for years to come, maybe even decades to come." He said "Even the Chinese are not supporting Russia in this act - nobody thinks this act is legitimate."
A Russian Foreign Ministry statement, which singled out the far-right Ukrainian group "Right Sector," also accused Western governments of ignoring the violence. The statement came as the Ukrainian Defense Department said armed men in uniforms surrounded and seized a Crimean naval base at Chernomorskoye, and a military hospital in Simferopol.
The New York Times said police interrupted an interview with a local man in Chernomorskoye, threatening its reporters and seizing their notes.
Ukrainian interim prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk meets Wednesday at the White House with President Barack Obama. A White House statement Monday said the visit will highlight the strong support of the United States for the people of Ukraine, and will include talks on economic aid and preparations for May elections in Ukraine.
The U.S. State Department Monday called on Russia to show evidence it is ready to engage on U.S. diplomatic proposals to end the Ukraine crisis. Spokeswoman Jen Psaki also said it is possible that Secretary of State John Kerry could meet this week with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, if he is convinced that Moscow is prepared to hold substantive talks.
For his part, Lavrov, speaking on Russian television, complained that the U.S. proposals amounted to "moving forward on the basis of a situation born out of a state coup." Moscow has consistently described the ouster of former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych as the illegal overthrow of a legitimate head of state.
Russian news agencies say Mr. Yanukovych is expected on Tuesday to make his second public appearance since fleeing Kyiv last month as anti-government protesters laid siege to the capital.
In Kyiv Monday, U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt also reiterated that Washington will not recognize the results of a Crimean referendum set for Sunday on whether residents of the peninsula will join Russia or remain a part of Ukraine with greater autonomy.
Former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul told VOA the annexation will "isolate Russia from the rest of the world for years to come, maybe even decades to come." He said "Even the Chinese are not supporting Russia in this act - nobody thinks this act is legitimate."
Updated March 9, 2014 4:44 p.m. ET
Pro-Ukrainian supporters take part in a rally in the Crimean capital of Simferopol on Sunday, as Russian forces tightened their grip over the region. Reuters
MOSCOW—Russian President Vladimir Putin threw his support Sunday behind Crimea's move to secede from Ukraine, defying Western threats of sanctions, as a Kremlin-backed official said the region could join Russia as soon as this month.
The White House, meanwhile, said President Barack Obama would meet the newly appointed Ukrainian prime minister in Washington on Wednesday and warned that further steps toward Russian annexing Crimea would lead to more economic and diplomatic pressure on Moscow.
But in calls with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron on Sunday, Mr. Putin showed no sign of giving ground. While the West has said Russia's occupation of Crimea and the region's secession referendum, which is scheduled for Sunday, violate international law, Mr. Putin called the planned vote legitimate.
"The steps taken by the legitimate leadership of Crimea are based on the norms of international law and aim to ensure the legal interests of the population of the peninsula," Mr. Putin said Sunday in the calls, according to a statement from the Kremlin.
Mr. Putin didn't say whether Russia intended to annex Crimea if the referendum to leave Ukraine and join Russia passes. But a Kremlin-backed leader in Crimea said the region could become part of Russia by the end of March if the vote succeeds.
Russia's Parliament has been fast-tracking a bill to speed up the process for Russia to absorb a foreign territory and issue Russian passports. A member of Russia's Parliament said Sunday it stood ready to provide the region with 40 billion rubles ($1.1 billion) for infrastructure development if it becomes part of the country, as Crimea relies largely on Ukraine for its water and electricity.
Tony Blinken, Mr. Obama's deputy national security adviser, said an annexation of Crimea violated international law and would never be recognized.
"If there is an annexation of Crimea, a referendum that moves Crimea from Ukraine to Russia, we won't recognize it, nor will most of the world," he told CNN. "The pressure that we've already exerted in coordination with our partners and allies will go up."
He pointed to steep declines in the Russian ruble and Russia's stock markets last week as a result of international pressure and as proof that Russia was already paying a cost. The ruble has recovered some from the steep losses in recent days, however, and the stock-market losses have had little broader economic impact.
In an address to thousands gathered in central Kiev to celebrate the 200th birthday of Ukrainian nationalist writer Taras Shevchenko, the country's new prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, vowed to protect Ukraine's interests in Crimea but said it would achieve its goals diplomatically.
"This is our land," he told the crowd. "Our fathers and grandfathers have spilled their blood for this land. And we won't budge a single centimeter from Ukrainian land. Let Russia and its president know this."
Russia has increasingly pushed back at the threat of sanctions. On Saturday, Russia state news agencies reported the country's defense ministry may stop fulfilling arms-treaty commitments and block U.S. military inspections of its nuclear weapons in response to a move in Washington to suspend military cooperation with Moscow.
In an article in the state newspaper Rossiskaya Gazeta, Kirill Barsky, Russia's special envoy to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization suggested that Russia was prepared to face down any sanctions, noting that similar measures taken against China following the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 proved ineffective and that China's economy surged soon after.
The situation on the ground in Crimea grew more tense over the weekend. Russian troops and locals continued to besiege Ukrainian military bases in Crimea, halting delivery of food and supplies to some of them. On Sunday in Sevastopol, violence flared when a small crowd of Ukrainians gathered to celebrate Mr. Shevchenko's birthday. They were met by pro-Russian demonstrators who attacked men providing security for the event, punching and kicking them and beating one man with a whip.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk speaks during a rally to commemorate the 200th anniversary of poet and national icon Taras Shevchenko at Independence square in central Kiev on Sunday. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said warning shots were fired as its military observer team attempted to enter the region Saturday and were stopped at an armed checkpoint. On Friday, the group issued a statement condemning reports of harassment and violence against reporters in region.Poland decided to evacuate its consulate in Crimea "because of continuing disturbances by Russian forces," the country's foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, said Saturday.
On Sunday, there were signs of unrest in some eastern Ukrainian cities where Russian speakers are in the majority. In Luhansk, local media reported that a mob of several hundred protesters bearing Russian flags stormed the local government building and forced the new governor appointed by Kiev to sign a letter of resignation.
In the eastern industrial of Donetsk, boxer-turned-politician Vitali Klitschko who plans to run for president in Ukrainian elections on May 25, was forced to cancel a rally after a group of about 5,000 pro-Russian protesters gathered in the city's main square and had minor skirmishes with a pro-Kiev group.
Meanwhile, Sergei Aksyonov, the new Russian-backed leader in Crimea, issued a televised appeal to residents in other regions in Ukraine's south and east, calling on them to defy the new government in Kiev and hold their own votes on secession. He offered the support of the new Crimean government, as well as its "self-defense forces," referring to what Western officials say are Russian troops deployed in Crimea.
—Alan Cullison, Alexander Kolyandr and Carol E. Lee contributed to this article.
Write to Lukas I. Alpert at lukas.alpert@wsj.com
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Updated March 9, 2014 6:56 p.m. ET
Russia's seizure of Crimea should be a wake-up call for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The absence of serious thinking about NATO's territorial defense mission—its raison d'être—and the weakness its 28 member nations have shown since the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia have proven catnip for Vladimir Putin.
Most of NATO's European members have spent the past two decades rationalizing how they can spend ever-smaller sums on security. And now the U.S. is cutting its defense expenditures while trying to "pivot" its strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific. So it isn't surprising that pundits and government officials have tended to emphasize political and economic suasion for dealing with this latest Russian aggression.
Sanctions, skipping the G-8 summit in Sochi, hitting Russian oligarchs in their pocketbooks, isolating Russia in international forums—all of these options are legitimate responses to Mr. Putin's land grab in the sovereign state of Ukraine. But there is also a need to think about military options.
First, NATO should reconsider its so-called Three Nos from the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. The Three Nos were shorthand for the NATO allies' joint declaration that they had "no intentions, no plans, and no reason" to station nonstrategic nuclear forces in new member states. But NATO left the door open to future deployments if front-line allies were threatened. While NATO still lacks the intention and plans to station nuclear forces in new member states, such as Poland, it now has more than sufficient reason to do so.
A preliminary step should be making the Polish air force's F-16s capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons so that they could participate in NATO's nuclear mission. That should quickly be followed by site surveys to identify suitable locations for potentially storing nuclear weapons on the territory of front-line allies, including Poland, if relations with Russia further deteriorate.
Second, NATO should reinforce its front-line allies with additional conventional force deployments. The time has come for the U.S. and other NATO allies to consider permanently stationing forces in Poland and Romania as well as the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to back up their words of strategic solidarity. Their mission should be defensively oriented, establishing what military strategists call "anti-access, area denial" zones. (This might include missile defenses to protect major bases in those countries along with anti-air, anti-armor and anti-ship weapons to counter air, land or naval incursions.
Taking these steps in the Baltic states would reduce Russia's temptation to encroach on their sovereignty in the name of "protecting ethnic Russian populations," a pretext it has used in Ukraine. It would also preclude Russia's option of a quick, Crimea-like operation to establish a fait accompli on the ground before NATO can decide to act.
Third, NATO should make it clear that it would seriously consider a future Ukrainian request for indirect military assistance, especially if Russia escalates the crisis in Crimea or deploys its forces into other eastern Ukrainian provinces. NATO could certainly provide overt nonlethal and humanitarian assistance, while the U.S. might even consider covert lethal aid, as in Afghanistan during the 1980s Soviet occupation. This might include short-range precision guided weapons that could be used by resistance forces to attack bases and facilities on Ukrainian territory seized by Russia's forces or its proxies.
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Global View columnist Bret Stephens on why the Russian strongman continues to carve up Ukraine. Photo: Getty Images
It may not be realistic to compel the withdrawal of Russian forces quickly and it is far-fetched to imagine NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. Nevertheless, it would still be possible to exact a heavy toll on Russia in blood and treasure through a protracted irregular war if it formally annexes Crimea or attempts to occupy other parts of the country.
Fourth, the U.S. and its NATO allies should revisit their self-imposed prohibitions on lethal aid to moderate Syrian opposition groups. In the post-Crimea era, Syria should be viewed through the prism of not only the West's long-term strategic competition with Iran, but also its re-emerging competition with Russia. The defeat of Bashar Assad's murderous regime and with it the potential loss of Russia's naval port at Tartus would represent a heavy tax for Russia's adventurism closer to home.
Lastly, Russia's invasion of Crimea should prompt strategic reappraisals in both Washington and Brussels. The Ukrainian crisis raises fundamental questions about the wisdom of the Obama administration's attempt to "lead from behind" on foreign-policy issues with clear U.S. interests, its pursuit of "global zero" (the elimination of all nuclear weapons world-wide) and most directly its "reset with Russia."
Rather than "reset," the administration would do well to hit the "recall" button on the Pentagon's Quadrennial Defense Review, released March 4, which treated Putin's Russia as an afterthought relative to other global threats, and astonishingly advocated another round of bilateral nuclear-arms reductions at a time of heightened tensions.
Leaders in Washington and Europe have allowed NATO's defenses to deteriorate to the point that Mr. Putin seems to think he can act with impunity. It is past time to start rebuilding those defenses, and Mr. Putin's Ukrainian gambit should be the catalyst.
Mr. Thomas is vice president and director of studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, D.C.
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The father of psychoanalysis was also a pioneering neuroscientist. Photograph: AP
Penis envy. Repression. Libido. Ego. Few have left a legacy as enduring and pervasive as Sigmund Freud. Despite being dismissed long ago as pseudoscientific, Freudian concepts such as these not only permeate many aspects of popular culture, but also had an overarching influence on, and played an important role in the development of, modern psychology, leading Time magazine to name him as one of the most important thinkers of the 20th century.
Before his rise to fame as the founding father of psychoanalysis, however, Freud trained and worked as a neurologist. He carried out pioneering neurobiological research, which was cited by Santiago Ramóny Cajal, the father of modern neuroscience, and helped to establish neuroscience as a discipline.
The eldest of eight children, Freud was born on 6 May, 1856, in the Moravian town of Příbor, in what is now the Czech Republic. Four years later, Freud's father Jakob, a wool merchant, moved the family to Austria in search of new business opportunities. Freud subsequently entered the university there, aged just 17, to study medicine and, in the second year of his degree, became preoccupied with scientific research. His early work was a harbinger of things to come – it focused on the sexual organs of the eel. The work was, by all accounts, satisfactory, but Freud was disappointed with his results and, perhaps dismayed by the prospect of dissecting more eels, moved to Ernst Brücke's laboratory in 1877. There, he switched to studying the biology of nervous tissue, an endeavour that would last for 10 years.
The eldest of eight children, Freud was born on 6 May, 1856, in the Moravian town of Příbor, in what is now the Czech Republic. Four years later, Freud's father Jakob, a wool merchant, moved the family to Austria in search of new business opportunities. Freud subsequently entered the university there, aged just 17, to study medicine and, in the second year of his degree, became preoccupied with scientific research. His early work was a harbinger of things to come – it focused on the sexual organs of the eel. The work was, by all accounts, satisfactory, but Freud was disappointed with his results and, perhaps dismayed by the prospect of dissecting more eels, moved to Ernst Brücke's laboratory in 1877. There, he switched to studying the biology of nervous tissue, an endeavour that would last for 10 years.
Brücke was a pioneering physiologist interested, among other things, in the effects of electricity on the nerves and muscles. Together with contemporaries such as Hermann von Helmholtz and Emil du-Bois Reymond, he played a key role in overturning vitalism, the notion that living things differ from inanimate objects because they possess some kind of non-physical entity, often called a "vital spark," or merely "energy," that was likened by some to the soul. (Brücke was also of the opinion that all living things are dynamic and subject to the laws of chemistry and physics, an idea later misappropriated by Freud in his psychodynamic theory.)
Freud spent six years in Brücke's lab, during which time he was tasked with comparing the brains of humans and other vertebrates with those of invertebrates, to determine whether there were any essential differences between them. This involved examining the brains of frogs, crayfish and lampreys under the microscope, and led to a number of important discoveries. He demonstrated, for example, that nerve fibres emerge from grey matter within a web-like substance, and that the lamprey spinal cord contains undifferentiated cells that later become the origin of the sensory nerve roots – a discovery that helped establish the evolutionary continuity between all organisms. He was also the first to describe the structure and function of a part of the brainstem called the medulla oblongata, and the white matter tracts connecting the spinal cord and cerebellum.
Freud's 1877 drawing showing nerve cells in the lamprey spinal cord.
At the time, the structure of the nervous system was the subject of an on-going debate. In the 1830s, Theodor Schwann and Matthias Schleiden had proposed, on the basis of what they had seen under the microscope, that all living things consisted of fundamental units called cells. But the microscopes available at the time were not powerful enough to resolve synapses, the miniscule gaps between nerve cells, and histologists were divided into two camps – the neuronists, who argued that the nervous system must consist of cells like all other living things, and the reticularists, who believed that it was composed instead of a continuous network of tissue.
Freud made a significant contribution to this long-lasting debate. In the late 1870s and early 1880s, he observed the relationship between the grey matter and the nerve fibres that emerge from it, and described it accurately and consistently. The diagram above, from a paper that he published in 1877, shows the spinal cord of the lamprey, and includes what appear to be nerve cell bodies within the grey matter.
Freud also developed a new method for staining nervous tissue. "In the course of my studies of the structure and development of the medulla oblongate," he wrote in an 1884 paper entitled 'A new histological method for the study of nerve-tracts in the brain and spinal chord,' published in the prestigious journal Brain, "I succeeded in working out the following method… Pieces of the organ are hardened in bichromate of potash, or in Erlicki's fluid (2 1/2 parts of bichromate of potash and 1/2 of sulphate of copper to 100 parts of water) and the process of hardening is finished by placing the specimen in alcohol; thin sections are cut by means of a microtome and washed in distilled water. The washed sections are brought into an aqueous solution of chloride of gold (1 to 100) to which is added half or an equal volume of strong alcohol."
Freud described his observations in a lecture in 1884: "If we assume that the fibrils of the nerve fibre have the significance of isolated paths of conduction, then we would have to say that the pathways in which the nerve fibres are separate are confluent in the nerve cell: then the nerve cell becomes the 'beginning' of all those nerve fibres anatomically connected with it… I do not know if the existing material suffices to decide this important problem. If this assumption could be established it would take us a good step further in the physiology of the nerve elements: we could imagine that a stimulus of a certain strength might break down the isolated fibres, so that the nerve as a unit conducts the excitation, and so on."
Thus, Freud very nearly discovered the neuron, but the way in which he presented his findings was somewhat reserved and vague. The Neuron doctrine – which states that nerve cells are the fundamental structural and functional element of the nervous system – finally gained wide acceptance in the early 1890s, a full seven years after Freud's lecture. This was, in large part, because of Cajal, who used staining methods similar to that developed by Freud to visualise and compare nervous tissue from various animals. Today, the Neuron doctrine is the cornerstone of modern neuroscience. But although Freud's early observations were cited in Cajal's magnum opus, Histology of the Nervous System of Man and Vertebrates, as evidence of the existence of neurons, his contribution to the development of this crucial idea are all but forgotten, and were eventually overshadowed by his work in psychoanalysis.
References: Triarhou, LC (2009). Exploring the mind with a microscope: Freud's beginnings in neurobiology. Hellenic J Psychol. 6: 1-13 [PDF]
Kandel, E. (2012). The Age of Insight. Random House, New York.
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Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, and his government have been deft at using the history of Ukrainian anti-Semitism to their advantage. At his first news conference after moving his troops into Crimea, Mr. Putin described right-wing fanatics in Kiev wearing armbands with swastikalike symbols, warning that, in upcoming elections, “like a Jack-in-the-box, some nationalist-type or semifascist element ... or some kind of anti-Semite could pop out.”
His foreign minister, Sergei V. Lavrov, has repeatedly tried to discredit the revolution that toppled Ukraine’s pro-Russian president last month by calling it a “pogrom.” The Russian ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly I. Churkin, likened the demonstrators to the Ukrainian fascists who collaborated with the Nazis against the Soviet Union during World War II.
This is more than merely a cynical ploy. In invoking Ukraine’s history of anti-Semitism, Mr. Putin and his deputies are not so much trying to appeal to the at least 70,000 Jews there today as to the millions of Russian speakers (many Jews among them) who have watched with ambivalence the toppling of statues of Lenin — still a symbol for older Ukrainians of the triumph of communist internationalism over Nazism. They are also proposing a high-stakes bet: If the true fascist nature of Ukraine’s new leaders emerges, naïve Westerners, including President Obama, will find themselves on the wrong side of history.
For many American Jews, the familiar narrative about Ukraine is that the lucky ones got out. The instability following the assassination of Czar Alexander II in 1881 led to the first major wave of anti-Jewish pogroms. “Fiddler on the Roof,” set in 1905 and based on stories by the Yiddish writer Sholem Aleichem, born in what is today Ukraine, ends in the wake of a pogrom with Tevye leaving for the United States.
Deeper in Jewish collective memory is Bohdan Khmelnytsky, the Cossack commander, or hetman, who led an uprising against the Polish magnates in 1648 that included a massacre of Jews, who had economic and social ties to the Polish overlords.
The 20th century was especially horrific for Jews living in the Ukrainian territories. The Russian Civil War of 1918-21 brought the worst pogroms, killing tens of thousands of Jews.
During World War II, around 1.5 million Jews were murdered on the territory that is now Ukraine. Some of these died at the hands of ethnic Ukrainians: When Hitler invaded the Soviet Union in 1941, the ultranationalist leader Stepan Bandera saw an opportunity to carve out an independent Ukraine; in the process, his forces killed Poles and Jews. (The Soviets were hardly popular, given the deaths of about three million Ukrainians in 1932-33 during Stalin’s program of collectivization.)
When Mr. Putin or his supporters compare the protesters in Kiev to followers of Bandera, they are implicitly raising a question of comparative genocide. So far, thankfully, the people of Ukraine haven’t taken the bait.
Despite an anguished history, the past decade has been a time of significant rapprochement between Ukrainian Jews and their countrymen, particularly among cultural and intellectual figures.
The National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy has partnered with the Association of Jewish Organizations and Communities of Ukraine to create a Jewish Studies degree program. Outside Ukraine, organizations like the Canada-based Ukrainian-Jewish Encounter Initiative have encouraged dialogue. Scholars of Ukrainian literature, like Myroslav Shkandrij of the University of Manitoba, and of Jewish history like Yohanan Petrovsky-Shtern of Northwestern University, have helped to complicate the narrative of animosity, recalling Ukrainian writers’ varied portrayals of Jews as well as Jews who wrote in Ukrainian.
This progress may be slow and incremental, but its fruits were vivid this winter, as Ukrainians of all backgrounds protested a corrupt president, Viktor F. Yanukovych, and his ties to Mr. Putin’s Russia. Representatives of numerous ethnicities were present, and died, on Kiev’s Independence Square.
One of Ukraine’s most influential Jewish figures, the American-born rabbi Yaakov Dov Bleich of Kiev’s Great Choral Synagogue, said of the allegations of anti-Semitism that “the Russians are blowing this way, way out of proportion.” Rabbi Bleich, who is also a vice president of the World Jewish Congress, is helping to raise funds to finance security for synagogues and mosques.
Far from being controlled by neo-Nazis, the new government includes several members of ethnic minorities, including Russians. The new government has an Armenian minister of internal affairs and a Jewish deputy prime minister. To be sure, Jewish leaders are present on both the pro-Western and pro-Yanukovych sides.
Kharkiv, an ethnically diverse but mostly Russian-speaking region in the east, has become a locus of conflict. Throughout the winter, pro-Western protesters gathered in the city’s square, until Mr. Yanukovych fled Kiev. The following week, on March 1, pro-Russian demonstrators suddenly emerged, bearing Russian flags and wearing orange-and-black St. George ribbons — a symbol of Russian military pride.
My friend Yury Yakubov, a Jewish activist in Kharkiv’s anti-Yanukovych movement, summed up his frustration with the sudden pro-Russian demonstrations in a darkly humorous post on Facebook. “I have high hopes for Purim,” he wrote, promising that “we’ll drink until we can’t tell the difference” between Kiev’s Independence Square and Lenin’s Mausoleum in the Kremlin. (A Purim tradition involves inebriation to the point that one can’t tell the difference between Haman, the antagonist of the Esther story, and the heroic Mordechai.)
Mr. Putin may be betting on the fascists and anti-Semites, but those who support a democratic Ukraine see the opportunity for democracy in a diverse society. In an open letter of March 4, a group of Ukrainian Jewish leaders wrote to Mr. Putin, “The Jews of Ukraine, as all ethnic groups, are not absolutely unified in their opinion toward what is happening in the country. But we live in a democratic country and can afford a difference of opinion.”
An emerging progressive left wing, driven by students, has countered the right-wing involvement in the new government by agitating for educational and economic reform. Slowly, activists like these are changing the narrative about what it means to be Ukrainian. Those of us watching from afar must be willing to do the same.
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