IHT Rendezvous: Russia Is Running Out of Cheap Oil
By next year, Rosneft will be the largest publicly traded oil company in the world. But even its partnerships with some of the world's leading oil companies may not be enough to save Russian production levels.
MOSCOW — Rosneft’s purchase of TNK-BP comes at a crucial time for the Russian oil industry — and for the Kremlin. Russia’s Soviet-era oil legacy is running down. It’s been a good long run. But if Russia is going to keep up production, it must now move on to places like the Arctic offshore and the remote tundra of East Siberia, places that are colder, harsher, farther out, and in a word, more costly. Russia is not running out of oil, but it is running out of cheap oil.
That’s where Rosneft comes in. By next year it will be the largest publicly traded oil company in the world. With over 54 percent of Russian production, it is the Russian state’s bet on the future. But can Rosneft do it all, even with some of the world’s leading oil companies as its strategic partners?
Read my story in the special energy section of the IHT, based on my new book, Wheel of Fortune: The Battle for Oil and Power in Russia.
Thane Gustafson is a professor of government at Georgetown University, senior director of consultants IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates and author of several books on the Russian economy.
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