Saturday, February 9, 2013

2.9.13 - Russia News Review: " Russia is lonely and out of fashion" - via oD Russia | Demonstrators Attack Allies of Georgian President, Injuring at Least 5 - NYT | No 'reset' in sight amid US-Russia chill - GlobalPost

" Russia is lonely and out of fashion"


 
"We have reached a point where is probably more realistic to wait for political change in Russia, than it is to wait for a closer cooperation within the current status quo — to press not the ‘reset’ but a ‘pause’ button in dealings with Russia."

"Foreign policy is very rarely shaped by the preferences of the people only, as indeed are such preferences prone to change quickly. Instead, the foreign policy of the post-Putin’s Russia will be determined by many factors that are now impossible to predict: the state of Russia’s economy (and in particular the size of its foreign debt); the political beliefs of its next leaders; the state of global affairs in general; and the policy initiatives of the West. But reading Russian opinion polls today is a healthy antidote to the naive expectations that a democratic change in Russia is an answer to all questions in the bilateral relations. You do not need to be George Kennan to realise that the de-legitimation of the current regime in Russia cannot be reversed. Vladimir Putin’s return to Kremlin blocked the institutional possibility for the evolutionary development of the regime. Democratic change is possible and even likely in Russia. What is unlikely is that a democratic government in Russia will have foreign policy that does not emphasise Russia’s role as independent regional power, and with the ambition to have an economic region of its own."
 
Would democratic change in Russia transform its foreign policy?
via oD Russia by Ivan Krastev on 2/7/13
 

In Georgia, Crowd Attacks Mikheil Saakashvili’s Allies

via NYT > World by By OLESYA VARTANYAN and ELLEN BARRY on 2/8/13
At least five lawmakers from the party of President Mikheil Saakashvili were reported injured after an angry crowd of protesters attacked in Tbilisi.

Demonstrators Attack Allies of Georgian President, Injuring at Least 5








David Mdzinarishvili/Reuters
Protesters gathered outside the national library in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Friday, to try and block President Mikheil Saakashvili from giving an address to the nation.

By and
Published: February 8, 2013
 __________________________________________________
 

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/9/13
No 'reset' in sight amid US-Russia chill: "The Kremlin is now turning Russia towards a strategic confrontation with the US," said Lilia Shevtsova... "This isn't a reset but a full-on systems failure," Vlast weekly cited a highly placed official... …


No 'reset' in sight amid US-Russia chill: "The Kremlin is now turning Russia towards a strategic confrontation with the US," said Lilia Shevtsova... "This isn't a reset but a full-on systems failure," Vlast weekly cited a highly placed official... "The US is very disappointed -- Obama is personally disappointed," Russia in Global Affairs editor Fyodor Lukyanov told AFP... "For Putin now, foreign policy is an instrument for internal politics," Shevtsova told AFP

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/1/13

Anton Matyukhin's Photos
Классика от Васи Ложкина на злобу дня...

Волгоград на шесть дней переименуют в Сталинград: http://www.golos-ameriki.ru/content/volgograd-to-stalingrad/1594458.html

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/3/13

Gleb Pavlovsky's Photos
Хорошо: «Путешественник видит то, что видит; турист видит то, на что он приехал посмотреть» (Г.К.Честертон, от @ Ольга Красноярова). – Наш-то вовсе не выезжает – он себя вывозит вовне.. И там себя рассуждает: эх, а у нас иначе.. а вот этого у нас не дождёшься! .. Ничего нет мельче и пошлей, чем написанное в новой России о жизни других народов. Едва советская граница открылась, русские захлебнулись туризмом. Старый русский путешественник, от Карамзина и Герцена до Эренбурга и Виктора Некрасова искал в загранке иную жизнь, любовно (или с ужасом) рассматривая мощь чужих обычаев. Новые знают лишь зоны комфорта, импортируя пошлости на Родину взад.
Русское зарубежье это Пхукет и Гоа, тоска конференций и shopping area в аэропортах.
Ещё наблюдения новоначальных перегнувшись через подоконник: гляди, гляди, а вот чех с собачкой - собачка покакала, так чех какашку раз- - и в бумажку! И полисмен на него – зырк-зырк, но как по-доброму!
За 25 лет – НИ ОДНОЙ МЫСЛИ (публично обсуждённой), кроме - «Где пышнее пироги?»
Наш опыт чужой жизни заключается в ресторанных счетах и «ах всюду эти японцы..китайцы..арабы..негры..». Раздражают все, кто живут не как мы..завистливо раздражают. Когда граница (уже скоро) снова захлопнется, мы станем мучительно припоминать: мир - что такое «мир»? Мы же там кажется бывали? Ты помнишь, какие бикинюшки купила в Сантъяго-де-Компостела? Ну там где ещё был топ на косточках?!
Владимир Владимирович зря боитесь что на Западе нас подкупят! .. ботильоны из Палермо, таиландские бусы и афинский мраморный хуй у нас уже есть!

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/3/13

Вася Ложкин's Photos
я сегодня в мастерской опять слушал радио "йэху мацквы".
Каюсь.

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/3/13
"власти РФ взяли курс на патриотизм и ярко выраженный антиамериканизм: Соединенные Штаты представляются монстром" - See more of "Russian Politics - Российская Политика" via Mike Nova ...

Соединенные Штаты теряют интерес к России - INOTV

via …


"власти РФ взяли курс на патриотизм и ярко выраженный антиамериканизм: Соединенные Штаты представляются монстром" - See more of "Russian Politics - Российская Политика" via Mike Nova ...

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/4/13
Десятки фальшивых диссертаций в Московском педагогическом государственном университете (МПГУ)...

• Link

Десятки фальшивых диссертаций в Московском педагогическом государственном университете (МПГУ)...

• Feb. 4th, 2013 at 2:51 …


Десятки фальшивых диссертаций в Московском педагогическом государственном университете (МПГУ)...

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/4/13

Заснеженная Москва.
Источник фото: Интернет.

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/4/13
NYT: Dealing With the Real Putin

───────────────────────────────────

February 4, 2013

Dealing With the Real Putin
By FIONA HILL and CLIFFORD GADDY

THE Obama administration has decided it’s time to “reset the reset” with Russia. The reset was one …


NYT: Dealing With the Real Putin

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/4/13

Putin and the monk - FT.com
www.ft.com
Father Tikhon Shevkunov looks a little too polished to fit the image of the Orthodox Christian monk branded into the western imagination by Dostoevsky. The beard is just unkempt enough, but his chin is a bit too sculpted, his mane of shoulder-length
 

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/4/13
Путин и 300 архиереев: «Православная идеология» в путинской модели просто заменяет коммунистическую

Путин и 300 архиереев

«Православная идеология» в путинской модели просто заменяет коммунистическую


Mike Nova
4:42 PM - Public



ВЕДОМОСТИ - …


Путин и 300 архиереев: «Православная идеология» в путинской модели просто заменяет коммунистическую

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/4/13

Timeline Photos
Пришел на Красную площадь! Тут холодно и никого нет!

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/4/13
“We are heading toward 1937,” Gudkov says. “All that’s left now is for them to shoot the opposition.”

Trial of Putin Foe Shows No Russian Investors are Safe - Bloomberg

via putin's face - Google News on 2/4/13







Trial of Putin Foe Shows No …


“We are heading toward 1937,” Gudkov says. “All that’s left now is for them to shoot the opposition.”

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/4/13

RUSSIA and THE WEST - РОССИЯ и ЗАПАД: 2.4.13 - News Review: “We are heading toward 1937” - Link
east-and-west-org.blogspot.com

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/4/13
2.4.13 - News Review: “We are heading toward 1937” - Link

Mike Nova
7:52 PM - Public


http://east-and-west-org.blogspot.com/2013_02_04_archive.html



“We are heading toward 1937,” Gudkov says. “All that’s left now is for them to shoot the …


2.4.13 - News Review: “We are heading toward 1937” - Link

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/4/13
http://east-and-west-org.blogspot.com/2013_02_04_archive.html


RUSSIA and THE WEST - РОССИЯ и ЗАПАД: 02/04/13
east-and-west-org.blogspot.com
A blog about Russia and her relations with The West

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/4/13
RUSSIA and THE WEST - РОССИЯ и ЗАПАД: 2.4.13 - News Review: “We are heading toward 1937”...

RUSSIA and THE WEST - РОССИЯ и ЗАПАД: 2.4.13 - News Review: “We are heading toward 1937”...: Mike Nova 7:52 PM - Public …


RUSSIA and THE WEST - РОССИЯ и ЗАПАД: 2.4.13 - News Review: “We are heading toward 1937”...

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/5/13

Putinism In Winter
www.rferl.org
The recent disarray and intrigue in the Russian elite is reminiscent of the later 1990s, the twilight years of Boris Yeltsin's rule.

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/5/13
Blogs Review - 2.5.13

Mike Nova's starred items

The example of hateful, if not rabid anti-Americanism | Putin Doctrine

via RUSSIA and THE WEST - РОССИЯ и ЗАПАД by Mike Nova on 2/5/13

This is an example of hateful, if not rabid anti-Americanism …


Blogs Review - 2.5.13

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/5/13
Vladimir Putin has been the president or the prime minister of Russia for over 12 years. By now, many would think they are familiar with who this person is and yet he's still a mystery - By: Fiona Hill and Clifford G. Gaddy - Brookings …


Vladimir Putin has been the president or the prime minister of Russia for over 12 years. By now, many would think they are familiar with who this person is and yet he's still a mystery - By: Fiona Hill and Clifford G. Gaddy - Brookings Institution

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/5/13
News Review - 2.5.13

News Review - 2.5.13


The End of Russia's Thaw Hurts Medvedev, Navalny, & Friends

via Global Voices » Russia by Kevin Rothrock on 2/1/13

Earlier this week on January 29, federal investigators searched [ru] Kirov Governor …


News Review - 2.5.13

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/5/13
Gay News Review - 2.5.13

Mike Nova's starred items

UK Parliament Votes Approval Of Gay Marriage

via Queerty by Lester Brathwaite on 2/5/13

Today, the UK’s House of Commons voted by 400 to 175 in favor of allowing same-sex marriage, a cause …


Gay News Review - 2.5.13

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/6/13

Мегаполис — Всемирный Karl-Marx-Stadt
www.youtube.com
Видеоклип на песню "Всемирный Karl-Marx-Stadt" (2007). Режиссер - Лео Габриадзе, анимация - "Болд Дизайн". "МЕГАПОЛИС" В СЕТИ: facebook - http://www.facebook/...

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/6/13

Скандал в Большом театре. Версии Иксанова и Цискаридзе
www.snob.ru
Неизвестный плеснул Сергею Филину в лицо серной кислотой. Многолетняя драма вокруг Большого театра переросла в трагедию. Николай Усков встретился с двумя непримиримыми оппонентами, которые уже обменялись обвинениями в причастности к случившемуся, – генеральным директором Большого театра Анатол...

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/6/13

Конец коалиции перемен
www.colta.ru
АЛЕКСАНДР МОРОЗОВ о состоянии медиа после взлета и крушения надежд на перемены

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/6/13
АЛЕКСАНДР МОРОЗОВ о состоянии медиа после взлета и крушения надежд на перемены

Александр Морозов

а это мой текст про то, "что происходит" и как начинаются "благословенные годы реакции".

See Translation

Конец коалиции …


АЛЕКСАНДР МОРОЗОВ о состоянии медиа после взлета и крушения надежд на перемены

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/6/13
https://fbcdn-profile-a.akamaihd.net/hprofile-ak-snc6/203403_100000874555016_2227139_q.jpg

Ольга Крыштановская
ВАК: давно защита диссертаций стала профанацией. Почти повсеместно. Чиновники и бизнесмены получают ученые степени пачками. Среди нашей политической элиты 47% кандидатов и докторов наук. Звание академик, некогда славное, утратило былой престиж. Ведь в академики берут сегодня только директоров институтов. Может быть, пора и здесь наводить порядок, открыто говорить о коррупции и деградации?

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/6/13

Грани.Ру: Прощание с Долматовым: другороссы побили Удальцова
grani.ru
У Сахаровского центра, где проходит прощание с активистом "Другой России" Александром Долматовым, произошла драка. Другороссы побили координатора Левого фронта Сергея Удальцова, обвинив его в том, что он "сливает протест" и "пиарится" на трагедии. У Удальцова подбита ск...


via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/6/13

Gleb Pavlovsky's Photos
КРЕМЛЯ НЕТ - ЕСТЬ ТОЛЬКО ИЗДАВАЕМЫЙ ИМ РЁВ. Зметили, что во власти работает только шумо- помехогенератор, и ничего более?

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/6/13

Грани.Ру: Экспертов СПЧ преследуют за доклад по второму делу ЮКОСа
grani.ru
Эксперты Совета по правам человека, готовившие доклад по второму делу Михаила Ходорковского и Платона Лебедева, подверглись преследованиям. Член СПЧ Тамара Морщакова заявила, что у ряда экспертов были проведены обыски, а один из них преследовался в служебном порядке. Экспертиза была завершена в нояб...

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/6/13

/Искусство XX века/
Кандинский Василий Васильевич
Смутное
1917

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/6/13
Latitude: The Farcical Russian Legal System on Display

Latitude: The Farcical Russian Legal System on Display: A member of Pussy Riot was left staring at a videoscreen in her Russian penal colony as her own trial for camp violations played out just …


Latitude: The Farcical Russian Legal System on Display

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/6/13
NEWS: NYT Review: 2.6.13

NEWS: NYT Review: 2.6.13: NYT Review: 2.6.13 Mike Nova's starred items Boy Scouts Postpone Decision on Gays via NYT > U.S. by By LAUREN D’AV...


NEWS: NYT Review: 2.6.13

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/7/13

Антон Красовский: Я гей, и я такой же человек, как президент Путин
www.snob.ru
Бывший главный редактор кремлевского канала «Контр ТВ» рассказывает о причинах, по которым он совершил coming out и покинул канал

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/7/13

Timeline Photos
Владимир Егорович Маковский (1846–1920)
Освящение публичного дома, эскиз к картине 1900

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/7/13

Гействующие лица и исполнители
www.mk.ru
Прогрессивная общественность нынче премного увлечена критикой так называемого гомофобского закона, вроде как призванного ограничить пропаганду однополой любви среди несовершеннолетних. Хотя, если разобраться, закон этот — чистая фикция, местами переходящая в политико-экономический анекдот.

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/8/13

Леонид Бляхер's Photos


via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/8/13
Lion Hunt, short story - Охота на льва - Рассказ

Last Update: 2007 - 2.8.13

Mike Nova - МАЙК НОВА

Охота на льва

Рассказ

Animula vagula blandula,

Hospes comesque corporis,

Quae nunc abibis? in loca

Pallidula rigida nudula –

Nec ut soles dabis …


Lion Hunt, short story - Охота на льва - Рассказ

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/8/13

Mike Nova's Photos

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/9/13
Azerbaijan Is Rich. Now It Wants to Be Famous.

Azerbaijan Is Rich. Now It Wants to Be Famous.: Oil-rich, velvet-rope-poor Azerbaijan, a country about the size of South Carolina on the Caspian Sea, would very much like to be the world’s next party …


Azerbaijan Is Rich. Now It Wants to Be Famous.

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/9/13
2.9.13

Mike Nova's starred items

Five Myths About Russia - Forbes

via Russia - Google News on 2/4/13

The Voice of Russia



Five Myths About Russia
Forbes
The past several weeks have been very busy, and I haven't had a chance to post quite as …


2.9.13

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/9/13

Anton Matyukhin's Photos
Справедливый господин Пэ Жэ приехал и навел стабильность. А одного даже малиновых штанов лишил!

via Russia and The West's Facebook Wall by Russia and The West on 2/9/13

Gleb Pavlovsky's Photos
Завтра Пушкина убъют.. Заинтересовала бы нынешняя Россия русских классиков, хоть кого-то из них? Тургенева, Гоголя, Толстого - наверняка нет.. А Пушкина? Вся надежда на то, что мы ещё сумеем заинтересовать собой Пушкина

via CSIS: Publication Feed by Mgraybeal on 2/6/13
Four years ago, U.S. energy policy in the Americas arose from a sense of energy scarcity. Today the situation has changed. By 2020, the United States could overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer. And thanks to shale gas deposits, it could be a net natural gas exporter.
read more

via Cybersecurity - Related by jdunton on 2/7/13
This report looks at the political-military aspects of cybersecurity and attempts to place it in the larger context of international security. Networks are embedded in our economies and our political and social life. They have become the central tool for human activity. These networks form cyberspace.
read more

via WSJ.com: Opinion on 2/8/13
Khamenei rejects another U.S. offer. Maybe he wants a bomb.

via путин – Новости Google on 2/8/13

РБК - RBC.Ru




В.Путин: В России не раскрывается каждое второе преступление
РБК - RBC.Ru
Полиция в России работает недостаточно эффективно. Как сообщает корреспондент РБК, об этом на коллегии МВД заявил президент страны Владимир Путин. Глава государства в ходе своего выступления отметил, что в стране не раскрывается каждое второе преступление.
Путин поставил задачи перед МВД, а политическим противникам велел "не разрушать и не подтачивать"NEWSru.com
Владимир Путин принял участие в заседании расширенной коллегии МВДПервый канал
Путин поручил усилить меры безопасности в общественных местахРИА Новости
Российская Газета -НТВ.ru -Ведомости
Все похожие статьи: 56 »


via Putin - Google News on 2/7/13

Business Insider




Putin Demands That The Russian Olympic Committee Fire One Of Its VPs
Business Insider
SOCHI, Russia (AP) — A year before the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics begin, President Vladimir Putin has demanded that a senior member of the Russian Olympic Committee be fired. Putin's move came after he scolded officials over a two-year delay and ...




via Putin - Google News on 2/7/13

The Guardian




Putin fires Olympic official after publicly ridiculing him
The Guardian
Vladimir Putin has fired a top Russian Olympic official after publicly ridiculing him on a visit to facilities being built for a winter Olympics dogged by reports of corruption and construction delays. The humiliation of Akhmed Bilalov, 42, stamped the ...




via путин – Новости Google on 2/8/13

Известия




Путин обратил внимание МВД на уличную преступность
Известия
Владимир Путин в своем выступлении на коллегии МВД, говоря об итогах работы полиции в минувшем году, остановился на ключевых проблемах в деле поддержания общественной безопасности — низкой раскрываемости преступлений (55,6 % от зарегистрированных), росте ДТП с ...





via путин – Новости Google on 2/8/13

Аргументы и факты




Путин: Половина преступлений в России не раскрывается
Аргументы и факты
Москва, 8 февраля – АиФ-Москва. Президент РФ Владимир Путин выступил с резкой критикой работы МВД, передаёт РИА Новости. «В целом по России остаются нераскрытыми почти 45 % преступлений (44,4 %). Практически каждое второе. Это явный, очевидный факт, ...



via путин – Новости Google on 2/8/13






Путин поставил задачи перед МВД, а политическим противникам велел "не разрушать и не подтачивать"
NEWSru.com
Президент России Владимир Путин выступил перед коллегией МВД, указав министерству на цели и задачи, не забыв при этом перечислить заслуги. В частности, бюджет ведомства был увеличен вдвое в 2012 году, зарплаты и материальное обеспечение правоохранителей улучшилось ...



via путин – Новости Google on 2/8/13






Владимир Путин принял участие в заседании расширенной коллегии МВД
Первый канал
В России необходимо развивать эффективную систему профилактики правонарушений. Эту задачу Владимир Путин назвал одной из основных, выступая сегодня на коллегии МВД. Президент призвал сотрудников ведомства повысить уровень раскрываемости преступлений. Для этого ...



via Putin - Google News on 2/8/13

The Independent




Adam Osmayev: the public schoolboy and a plot to kill Vladimir Putin
The Independent
Several hours in, she gets to the key phrase: “To carry out a terrorist act with the aim of the elimination of the head of the government of the Russian Federation, V. V. Putin.” Locked behind the black metal bars of the courtroom's cage, surrounded by ...

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via Putin - Google News on 2/7/13

euronews




Russia: Putin throws official out in the cold ahead of Winter Olympics
euronews
With just a year to go until the Winter Olympics in Russia, President Vladimir Putin and the President of the International Olympic Committee held a ceremony at the Ice Palace in Sochi. The Olympics are a priority for Putin, who hopes to show how far ...



via Putin - Google News on 2/7/13






Russia's Putin sacks Olympic official over Games delays
Reuters
SOCHI, Russia (Reuters) - Vladimir Putin fired a top Russian Olympic official on Thursday after publicly ridiculing him on a visit to half-finished sports complexes planned for a winter Olympics dogged by reports of corruption and construction delays.



via NEWSru.com on 2/9/13
"Судья Карпов удовлетворил ходатайство СК. Домашний арест. До 6 апреля. Общение только с родственниками и адвокатами. Без переписки и средств связи", - написал Удальцов в своем микроблоге. Его должны лишить интернета и средств связи.

via NEWSru.com on 2/9/13
Казаки и националисты призвали собраться "для обсуждения вопросов стабилизации" обстановки в регионе. После конфликта с ингушами казак Спасибов оказался в реанимации. Власти ответили задержаниями.

via Russia - Google News on 2/8/13

TIME




Forward Russia: Grand Sochi project highlights Putin ambition
CNN International
It's a grand project that Vladimir Putin hopes will transform an ailing region of Russia and make a bold statement of intent, using sport as the fulcrum -- much in the way that China did with its Olympics in 2008 and Qatar hopes to do with soccer's ...
Russian Winter Olympics Hit a Snag Over TimeNew York Times
One Year Out, Russia Is Already Stockpiling Snow for the Sochi OlympicsTIME
Russia's Putin sacks Olympic official over Games delaysReuters
The Voice of Russia -Advocate.com
all 422 news articles »



via Russia - Google News on 2/8/13

RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty




In Russia, Reasons To Fear Year Of The Snake
RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
"The Year of the Snake is different because it's a year that, for Russia, has always marked very important, sweeping changes in our social and political life," Pavel Sviridov, a futurologist and president of the Temporal Research Fund, explained in a ...



via World news: Russia | guardian.co.uk by Lauren Niland on 2/8/13
A celestial visitor explodes over Siberia - leading to over a century of scientific debate and speculation
Next week will see a small asteroid pass closer to the earth than TV satellites, but Nasa have assured the world that there is no danger of impact. The celestial visitor has been named DA14 and is expected to travel at speeds of about 8 miles (13km) a second.
Something travelling that fast has collided with the earth before - in June of 1908, when an asteroid or comet exploded over Siberia. It has come to be known as the Tunguska event.
People were aware that something momentous had happened - but as the above report demonstrates, the region itself was inaccessible until the 1920s. The 1921 expedition laid bare the devastation caused by impact, with 80m of trees levelled over 830 square miles (2,150 sq km).
These days, thanks to NASA and satellites, we are able to track and announce what will be happening in the skies, but in the earlier part of the 20th century, explanations were not so easily obtainable - and the fear of the unknown convinced some people (probably understandably) of an apocalypse.
The effect of the collision was also felt in Britain, with a reader writing to the Times newspaper inquiring why the sky was so bright at night. She didn't receive an answer in 1908, but a 1991 Guardian Notes and Queries offered the hypothesis that the amount of dust thrown up by the blast diffracted the sun's rays, leading to "someone [playing] a round of golf at St Andrews at 2.30 in the morning."
Fascination with the Tungaska event has been fuelled not only by the sheer scale of the event, but with the mystery surrounding it. Scientists have been divided for over a century over what actually caused the impact, arguing between comet, asteroid and meteor.
It has even infiltrated popular culture - in 2008, Nintendo brought out a Wii game based on the Tunguska event and in 1996 it received one of the true accolades of mysterious happenings - inspiring an episode of the X-Files.

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via Russia News Headlines - Yahoo! News on 2/8/13
Udaltsov, leader of the Left Front opposition party, speaks on a telephone after handing petitions to the Presidential reception in MoscowMOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's top investigative agency said on Friday it was seeking to put under house arrest a prominent opposition leader charged with plotting mass disorder in protests against President Vladimir Putin. The leftist Sergei Udaltsov is among several opposition figures charged with riots and violence against police during a protest against Putin in May on the eve of the former KGB spy's inauguration for a third presidential term. ...

via World news: Russia | guardian.co.uk by Miriam Elder on 2/8/13
Three weeks after attack on Sergei Filin, police turn focus on Bolshoi employees as star dancer tells of plot to blacken his name
For nearly three weeks, the main action at the Bolshoi theatre has been happening far from its famous stage, as dancers and directors exchange heated accusations about who is behind the brutal acid attack on its ballet troupe's director, Sergei Filin.
Now, police have begun to treat several employees and dancers as suspects, according to an "informed source in Moscow's law enforcement agencies" cited by the Interfax news agency.
"Evidence is now being collected," the source said, providing no further details.

The unprecedented attack against Filin has lifted the veil on the bitter rivalries and personality clashes inside the country's most renowned theatre. Filin immediately linked the attack to his work as artistic director of the Bolshoi ballet.
The 42-year-old former dancer is in Germany receiving treatment aimed at restoring his eyesight. He was released from a Moscow hospital on Monday after undergoing several operations on his eyes and face, which were left with third degree burns after a masked attacker accosted him with sulphuric acid outside his home on 17 January.
Since the attack, the key players in the Bolshoi drama have approached the incident with theatrical flair, giving incendiary interviews and trading accusations almost daily. On one side stands Filin, backed by the Bolshoi's general director, Anatoly Iksanov. On the other is Nikolai Tsiskaridze, a principal dancer and celebrity backed by hordes of adoring fans. He has been a longtime critic of the theatre's leadership and had been a contender for Filin's position.
The Russian press immediately turned to the rivalry between the two men in speculating what could have prompted the brutal assault.
In television interviews, some from his hospital bed, Filin has said he knows who was responsible for the attack, but has refused to name names. Iksanov has repeatedly pointed the finger at Tsiskaridze – if not for carrying out the attack, at least for creating an "atmosphere" that allowed it to happen.
Tsiskaridze has denied being involved. Speaking to the BBC in an interview that aired on Friday, he went one step further and wondered if Filin was attacked at all.
"If this, God forbid, really was acid, you wouldn't be able to show your face for months," Tsiskaridze told the BBC. "I don't know what the substance was, but it's clear that it wasn't what they claim."
Filin left hospital on Monday wearing dark glasses, his face exposed but framed in a white bandage.
Tsiskaridze speculated that the attack and its attendant publicity could have been part of a set-up designed to blacken his name.
"If you look at all the specially commissioned TV shows that have been hinting at my involvement, it looks like a campaign against me," Tsiskaridze said. "This isn't against Sergei Filin, it's against me."
Tsiskaridze has long had a contentious relationship with the theatre's management. He has publicly denounced favouritism inside the Bolshoi and likened the result of the theatre's recent major renovation to a "Turkish hotel". He has accused the management of trying to push him out.
"It's like 1937, the days of Stalin – they're constantly organising meetings against me, they're trying to force staff to sign letters condemning me," he told the BBC.
The attack on Filin has had its effect on the theatre. Last week, the Bolshoi postponed its premiere of a new version of Igor Stravinsky's The Rite of Spring by British choreographer Wayne McGregor, one of the most eagerly awaited new productions in its repertoire.
"The Bolshoi management and the stage team led by Wayne McGregor have taken a joint decision to postpone The Rite of Spring as Sergei Filin is undergoing treatment," the Bolshoi said in a statement. It said it would announce new dates once Filin was back at work.

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via Russian news, all the latest and breaking Russia news by Telegraph Staff on 2/8/13
Russia's Bolshoi Theatre said on Friday it may sue one of its top dancers after he gave a series of interviews criticising its management in the wake of a horrific acid attack on the ballet's artistic director.


via Russia News Headlines - Yahoo! News on 2/8/13
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian police have arrested a Moldovan man wanted for attempted murder in Romania in November and who is also suspected by London police of shooting a Russian banker in the British capital last spring. Police arrested Vitali Proca, a 33-year-old from Moldova, in Moscow on Wednesday, the Russian Interior Ministry said in a statement. The arrest was confirmed by Interpol and Britain's Metropolitan Police. According to Interpol, Proca allegedly gunned down his victim in a mob-style shooting in a Bucharest parking lot on November 26 last year. ...

via Russia - Google News on 2/8/13

Washington Post




Canadian navy officer who sold secrets to Russia sentenced to 20 years for ...
Washington Post
HALIFAX, Nova Scotia — A Canadian navy intelligence officer who pleaded guilty to selling military secrets to Russia was sentenced Friday to 20 years in prison. Sub-Lt. Jeffrey Paul Delisle will serve 18 years and five months behind bars because of ...
Canada: Spy for Russia SentencedNew York Times
Halifax navy spy who sold secrets to Russia sentenced to 20 yearsCTV News
Canadian who spied for Russia jailed for 20 yearsTVNZ
Globe and Mail -GlobalPost
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via World news: Russia | guardian.co.uk by Julian Borger on 2/8/13
Report says the decision has been made, but not yet signed by the president
A report out today by the Centre for Public Integrity in Washington says that the Obama administration has made the decision that the US can make do with just two thirds of its current arsenal of deployed strategic nuclear warheads.
The current ceiling, agreed in the 2010 New Start Treaty with Russia, allows for 1550 of these warheads, consisting in the US case of Minuteman III missiles, submarine-launched Trident missiles and long-range bombers (the 'triad' of US deterrence). The new report says Obama will cut that to 1000-1,100 after an inter-agency review found it would not affect national security and save many billions of dollars.
However, the administration will seek to make the cuts in tandem with Russia, as an extension of New Start, thereby ducking the need for Senate approval of a new treaty. The CPI report says that Vice President Joseph Biden discussed the issue with the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, when the two met at the Munich Security Conference last weekend.
Nuclear experts in Washington said the numbers sounded about right. In fact they were first reported last July by the Associated Press. But they were a bit surprised by the timing.
The new report suggests the announcement would come in the coming weeks, after it receives Obama's signature. While Biden said in Munich that the president would mention the nuclear disarmament in his State of the Union address on February 12, most observers do not expect the final version of the new policy to be rolled out before spring, perhaps in time for the fourth anniversary of the president's famous Prague speech, where he promised to start moving towards a world without nuclear weapons.
Daryl Kimball, the head of the Arms Control Association in Washington said:
It makes common sense for the US and Russia to further reduce their strategic stockpiles. Moving from 1500 to 1000 warheads makes sense, and hopefully that will induce Russia to go below its present ceilings. The US could downsize its SSBN fleet from 12 to 10 to even 8 submarines, and that would save $20 billion over the next decade, and it would still be possible to maintain the triad.
The report in question springs from the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review which concluded:
The massive nuclear arsenal we inherited from the Cold War era of bipolar military confrontation is poorly suited to address the challenges posed by suicidal terrorists and unfriendly regimes seeking nuclear weapons.
That however was simply a declaration of intent. To be translated into actual strategic cuts, there had be a further inter-agency implementation study which has been underway ever since. By all accounts the basic decisions were made last year but not released to avoid making them grist for the election mill. Joe Cirincione, the president of the Ploughshares Fund said:
As you know, this guidance has been under development for almost two years. With the election and the Inauguration complete and the President's new security leadership almost in place, it makes sense for him to turn back in earnest to the nuclear policy agenda. I know from talking with senior officials that nuclear policy remains a personal priority or the President.
Cirincione added:
Reducing our immense nuclear arsenal has a number of benefits: it would strengthen U.S. global leadership, enhance the country's ability to deter new nuclear weapon states, accelerate efforts to prevent nuclear terrorism, and greatly reduce the danger of the use of nuclear weapons from miscalculation, misunderstanding, or accident. It would make us all safer.

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via - Europe RSS Feed on 2/8/13
The state prosecutor, dressed in a regulation navy jacket with gilded buttons and insignia, reads in a monotone from the thick sheaf of papers that make up the indictment. Several hours in, she gets to the key phrase: “To carry out a terrorist act with the aim of the elimination of the head of the government of the Russian Federation, V. V. Putin.” Locked behind the black metal bars of the courtroom’s cage, surrounded by armed police, the defendant Adam Osmayev smiles wryly.


via - Europe RSS Feed on 2/8/13
For Adam Osmayev, the manicured countryside of the Cotswolds was a world away from the battle-scarred landscape of his Chechen homeland. But as he mixed with students at his expensive private school, he did not forget his roots.

via Russia - Google News on 2/8/13

Washington Post




Canada: Spy for Russia Sentenced
New York Times
A Canadian naval intelligence officer, who gave Russia secrets from five nations, including the United States, was sentenced to 20 years in prison on Friday. The officer, Sub-Lt. Jeffrey Paul Delisle, 41, said he began selling secrets in 2007 while ...
Canadian navy officer who sold secrets to Russia sentenced to 20 years for ...Washington Post
Canadian who spied for Russia jailed for 20 yearsTVNZ
Halifax navy spy who sold secrets to Russia sentenced to 20 yearsCTV News
GlobalPost -Waterloo Record -Global Times
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RT




Russia: Officer Jailed in Coup Plot
New York Times
A Moscow court sentenced a former Soviet intelligence officer on Friday to 13 years in a prison colony for plotting an armed coup against the Russian government. The officer, Vladimir Kvachkov, a former colonel in the Soviet military intelligence ...
Russia jails crossbow coup conspiratorsScotsman
Russia jails colonel cleared of Chubais plotGlobalPost
Former military intelligence officer Vladimir KvachkovRIA Novosti

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via World news: Russia | guardian.co.uk by Andrew Brown on 2/9/13
The book Shamanic Worlds, recording the shamans of Siberia during Soviet Russia, had to pay lip service to the spirit of Marx
I have been reading about Siberian shamanism, which transports me to a world where fairytale horrors were still alive deep into the 20th century. One story collected in the 1980s tells of the shaman Khosogoi who was believed to "eat the souls of children". A suspicious guest places the shaman's own child in the cradle provided for hers: "In the night, as though dreaming, the guest saw Khosogoi wave his drum beater three times in the direction of the cradle and bring it to his lips, whereupon something resembling sour cream flowed into his mouth. After this, the woman again switched children.
"Early next morning, the household was awakened by a heartrending howl from the hosts' child. The child cried for a while and soon died. Khosogoi tried to vomit what he had swallowed in the night, but nothing came out. He then said: 'What has been eaten can never return. And my spirits have left me for ever, being angry that I fed them my own child.'"
The tale has the quick, undeviating cruelty of the Brothers Grimm but it takes place not in the long ago and far away world of witches, but in – as it might be – the yurt next door.
Another contrast with Grimm is that in their 19th-century fairytales of Germany, the constant theme is hunger. But in these Siberian folk tales, the overhanging dread is of disease. Children die; mothers die; tuberculosis and smallpox wipe out whole tribes. All these deaths are due to evil spirits. This explanation of disease and death is of course common to almost all preliterate religions, and survives even in literate ones. The shamanism of Siberia has hybridised in various places with Islam, Buddhism and Christianity, depending on the religion of the invaders of any particular region. In all these cases the rituals of drumming and singing in a darkened tent survived, even if the spirits invoked changed their names and characters.
The shaman, though he – or she – has dark powers, is necessary to the tribe because the spirits with whom they communicate are the only powers that can combat the evil ones that are imagined with startling vividness: "The Evén believed that the evil spirit of smallpox appeared on the migration routes of reindeer herders in the form of a woman with red hair like a European."
"The woman with red hair like a European" is not embedded in any worked-out system of mythology. That would demand the kind of tidying that can only emerge in literate religions. Even then, there will be a layer of unofficial folk beliefs that contradict official doctrine on almost every point. What matters is ritual, in which the meaning cannot be separated from the performance. The other really important thing about shamanism is that its purpose is not to explain the world, but to cure it. This is of course what Marx claimed for his own followers: "The philosophers up till now have tried to understand the world. The point, however, is to change it." That is another way in which Marxism resembled a religion more than a science.
The book I'm reading – Shamanic Worlds – is a translation of a volume originally published in Soviet Russia, so that the chapters make ritual obeisance to the spirits of Marx and Lenin. The authors, whatever their private views may have been, are obliged to pretend they are studying something that must disappear. "The extinction of religious vestiges is not a straightforward process. Under certain circumstances, they may revive, influencing some groups of people. But the general tendency of the development of society inevitably dooms them to gradual extinction."
It is pleasant to read this and reflect that there are almost certainly more shamanists than communists flourishing in Siberia today. Neither Marxism nor shamanism could cure the diseases they claimed to, but shamans had the better songs and made the world a little easier to endure.

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via Russia - Google News on 2/9/13

The Voice of Russia




Disagreement on missile defence may tell on Russia-NATO cooperation in other ...
The Voice of Russia
This follows from the fact that Russia-NATO relations rely on strategic stability. Therefore, if the nuclear balance is upset due to the implementation of NATO-supported US plans for a stage-by-stage deployment of a missile defence system, this would ...

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via Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty by RFE/RL on 2/9/13
Georgian police have detained three people involved in the February 8 protest in Tbilisi during which several lawmakers from President Mikheil Saakashvili's party were assaulted.

via Russia - Google News on 2/8/13






Russia, in adding to new blacklist, blocks site used by dissidents
Ars Technica
On Friday, a freedom of speech activist group reported that the Russian government has blocked access to a prominent blog-hosting service that carries many dissident voices from within the countries. Back in the fall, the Kremlin put into place a ...



via Russia - Google News on 2/9/13

BBC News




Russia activist Sergei Udaltsov under house arrest
BBC News
A court in Russia has placed the prominent opposition activist Sergei Udaltsov under house arrest. Mr Udaltsov is charged with organising "mass disorder" during a protest in Moscow in May 2012. He was arrested in October before being released. The ...
'Adopt Russian orphans in Russia' – PutinThe Voice of Russia
Russia targets Uganda as big market for weaponsDaily Monitor
13 Abortions for Every 10 Live Births in RussiaThe Weekly Standard (blog)
Deseret News -Deutsche Welle -EurActiv
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via Reuters: U.S. on 2/9/13
RAMSTEIN AIR FORCE BASE, Germany (Reuters) - The Pentagon will have to cut the size of U.S. military forces for the second time in as many years if across-the-board spending reductions of $470 billion over 10 years take effect March 1, the top U.S. military officer said on Saturday.



Mike Nova's starred items

via oD Russia by Vladimir Zvonovsky on 2/8/13
In Putin’s Russia, NGOs funded from abroad are now officially considered ‘foreign agents’. However a recent poll suggests that the Russian public’s attitude to them is rather less one-sided. Vladimir Zvonovsky reports from Samara.
Ever since the Russian parliament passed its controversial anti-NGO law, forcing any NGO receiving funding from abroad to register as a ‘foreign agent’, discussion on the subject has centred on the use of the term. One side stressed the strictly negative connotation of the word ‘foreign’ in the Russian culture. In the first place, the term implies ‘not one of us’, ‘alien’; if not ‘hostile’ then certainly‘unfriendly’. In the second, in the Soviet era any suggestion that someone had a link with a foreign country would mean at least their deportation, and more often their death.
Opponents of this ‘traditional’ way of thinking rightly note that such a diametrical opposition of ‘us’ and ‘them’ was only possible within the Soviet framework of a fairly rigid ideology, underpinned by fixed socio-political practice. Today, when neither the practice nor the ideology behind it exists any more, Russia suffers from a lack of any common identity that would create national unity. So the boundaries between ‘Russian’ and ‘foreign’ are also very fluid, uncertain and they vary between different social groups.

Why ‘foreign’ doesn’t necessarily mean ‘bad’

A study carried out back in 2001 showed that the Russian public and Russia’s political and media elite have quite different attitudes to the USA and the West in general. It showed that ordinary Russians think their own ruling classes are more closely connected to their global, and especially western, counterparts than they are to their own voters. To put it bluntly, the Russian man and woman in the street regard their own political elites as a sort of a branch of world government (with its centre in Washington, of course).
This hypothesis ought in theory to produce a tolerant attitude to foreign institutions being involved in everyday life in Russia, provided their involvement could be seen to be beneficial. After all, it need not mean the presence of actual foreigners or their organisations, let alone anything more invasive. It could be just a question of copying or importing individual social institutions, norms and functions into Russian practice, in part by means of foreign agents, i.e. NGOs funded from abroad. This could, for example, involve the training of election observers, a look at ways for consumers to monitor the quality of retail products, or campaigns to improve the rights of disabled people, women or children.
In this scenario any person’s ‘foreign agent’ status should not stigmatise him or her in the eyes of the Russian public, but, on the contrary, could even act as a ‘trademark’, signifying the high quality of their functioning (like a car or a computer). And the functioning of Russia state social institutions would be recognised as ineffective by comparison.
Last year our Centre (the Social Research Fund) undertook a two stage computer-assisted survey among a representative sample of residents of the Volga city of Tolyatti. We interviewed 500 people in total, first in July and then returning in November. The sample was divided into two subgroups.
The first subgroup, Group A, was asked "who does more to uphold the rule of law in Russia: governmental law enforcement agencies (police, the courts, the Public Prosecutor’s department) or civil rights and environmental NGOs?’ For the other subgroup, Group B the idea of 'foreign' involvement was introduced. The question they were asked was: "who does more to uphold the rule of law in our country today: Russian law enforcement agencies (police, the courts, the Public Prosecutor’s department) or foreign governments that finance civil rights and environmental NGOs?’
Just over a third of Group B answered in favour of Russian law enforcers, while on the other hand 12% believed that foreign governments had a more positive influence. In other words, for every three respondents who were confident in the effectiveness of their own government, one believed that foreign governments did a better job. The remaining 53% were recorded as ‘don’t knows’ (further analysis revealed that many of this group didn’t believe anyone was doing anything to uphold the rule of law in Russia). You might have thought that, of all Russian government agencies, those responsible for law enforcement ought to have been considered highly competitive in their field. But as we see here, a significant proportion of the sample believe that there are some areas of life where organisations representing civic society and supported by foreign governments are not only useful but also more effective than their own country’s governmental institutions. All of this despite the belief in a centralised state so ingrained in Russian mass consciousness, about which so much has been written and which is so obvious to the observer.
In Group A, the subgroup asked to choose between ‘law enforcement agencies’ and ‘NGOs’ (i.e. without any reference to foreign governments), the ratio of responses was less, 2:1. The number of respondents supporting their own agencies remained about the same, at 36%, but the number of NGO supporters rose to 17%, with a corresponding decrease in the ranks of ‘don’t knows’. In other words, he effect of the terms‘foreign agents’ and ‘foreign governments’ was evidently significant and negative in its connotations for some of those polled. But another conclusion tells a different story — a significant number of Tolyatti residents still believe that foreign governments are more effective in upholding the rule of law in Russia, i.e. a sector where, formally at least, Russian state agencies and government should have unlimited sovereignty.
‘A significant proportion [of those polled] believed that there were spheres of everyday life where organisations supported by foreign governments were not only useful but also more effective than their own country’s governmental institutions.’
For the second stage of the survey, in November 2012, the entire sample of 500 people was asked the question containing the word ‘foreign’, since this version was more likely to polarise opinions. This time, the proportion of respondents who thought that foreign governments were more effective in upholding the rule of law in Russia remained at 12%, but the number of those who trusted Russia’s internal agencies had risen significantly, from 35% to 43%.
Around the time of this second poll, President Putin had just sacked his Defence Minister, Anatoly Serdyukov, ostensibly in connection with a corruption scandal at his ministry. It is likely that his dismissal and investigation had a positive effect on the public’s perception of Russia’s law enforcement system. But even so, it didn’t change attitudes to foreign influences.
Looking at specific groups within the sample, the proportion of respondents who were also active users of social networks seemed to show a greater rise in trust of law enforcement than those who were not active online. The percentage who were confident of Russian law enforcers’ commitment to upholding the rule of law rose from 34% to 46%, whereas there was no statistically significant change among non-users (36% in July, 40% in November). Presumably, the information published on such online networks between July and November had a significant effect on those polled.

The poll results hold good for other Russian cities

In December 2012 we carried out a similar poll in Samara, the Volga regional capital, and our results were not significantly different from those in neighbouring Tolyatti. Again, about one in eight of respondents (12%) thought that foreign governments had a more positive effect on the rule of law in Russia than its own law enforcement system, while 42% held the opposite opinion. This comparative evaluation has allowed us to conclude that these results are typical for Russia as a whole.
To further unpack our evaluation we can use a comparative effectiveness index, which records the ratio of those who consider Russian agencies more effective to those who favour‘foreign agents’. If the index number is more than 1, it means that the ‘yes’s’outnumber the ‘no’s’. If it is less than 1, the opposite is the case. In the Tolyatti poll the overall index number is 3.5; i.e. for every two government supporters there are seven supporters of civil society. Among young people the index number is lower, 2.26. There is a clear difference in attitudes between men and women (4.08 and 3.08 respectively). This probably suggests that State law enforcement agencies are least effective in cases where everyday civil rights are infringed: the rights of consumers and children, labour rights – areas particularly affecting women and young people.
Both state employees (4.08) and pensioners (4.00) come out in support of the law enforcers, but those for those in the private and municipal sectors the index numbers are lower than the average (3.09 and 2.54 respectively). On the other hand, employees of AvtoVAZ, Russia’s largest carmaker and the city’s main work provider, give the state agencies a significantly higher than average rating – 5.78. We may assume that the factory staff look to the state to uphold their rights and are appreciative of the work of the police.
In summary, though there are some differences in the socio-demographic structure of the comparative evaluation in Samara and Tolyatti, the results are broadly the same. In both cities NGOs polled reasonably well, though the Russian state was clearly trusted more than so-called 'foreign agents'. On the other hand, anything other than 100% confidence in the Russian state might justifiably be interpreted as a certain disloyalty and a vote of distrust towards the state. Appreciation of the ‘foreign agents’, meanwhile, was clearly stronger among certain social groups — among under-30s, business owners, housewives on a low income and the highly educated — whereas the Russian law enforcers have a higher rating among managers, older people, men, middle-income groups and pensioners.
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via oD Russia by Ivan Krastev on 2/7/13
The incompatibility of an anachronistic and arbitrary regime with the modern world is leading many to consider that democratic change is possible — likely even — in Russia. But those expecting that a new ‘democratic’ government would somehow take a softer line on foreign policy should think again, says Ivan Krastev.
If Russia undergoes democratic change, what would its foreign policy look like? Would it be greatly different from what it is now? Would it be much more in tune with American foreign policy? Would it share European values? Or would there still remain important differences between Russia and the West?
These questions, all posed recently by American analyst Mark Katz, are important ones, particularly so given that relations between Putin’s Russia and the West seem to have reached a dead end. Obama’s ‘reset’ with Moscow is over, and in the near future we can expect only banality, frustration, noise and growing mutual mistrust. Viewed from Washington, Russia has become both more annoying and less needed. The shale gas revolution has made Americans uninterested in Russia’s energy resources. The UN has proven ineffective in dealing with global crisis, so Russia’s seat on the Security Council is of diminishing value. American troops are on their way out of Afghanistan, so there is less need for Moscow’s assistance there either. Washington has outsourced the task of changing Moscow’s position on Syria to the Turks. And the American Senate has lost patience with Kremlin’s symbolic politics, most recently over legislation banning American citizens from adopting Russian children. (Americans were of course expecting retaliation for the Magnitsky Act, but they were shocked by the cruelness of the response. Does the Kremlin really believe that it punishes America by punishing its own orphans?)

Pause is the new reset

In short, Russia has lost much of its strategic importance to the US, and business relations are decidedly unimpressive too. Obama fears, quite rightly, that his policy of ‘reset’ makes him vulnerable to the attacks of his Republican critics. We are not surprised, therefore, when the New York Times tells us that Washington has resolved to do ‘as little as possible’ and wait for political climate change in Moscow. In other words, the post-reset mood in the White House seems to have something in common with the position taken by America’s first ambassador to the Soviet Union, William Bullitt, who advised his President almost 80 years ago ‘we should neither expect too much, nor despair of getting anything at all’.
‘Obama’s ‘reset’ with Moscow is over, and in the near future we can expect only banality, frustration, noise and growing mutual mistrust. Viewed from Washington, Russia has become both more annoying and less needed.’
The EU is also in a waiting mood, but Russia does not look as strategically unimportant to Europe as it now does to the US. Europeans know that Moscow still matters both in security and economic terms. Yet there are several factors that tame any desire for more active engagement. First, the EU is much too preoccupied with implementing the institutional reforms needed to save the eurozone to be ready for any ambitious foreign policy initiatives. Second, Brussels is politically unable to deliver what Russia really wants most: a free visa regime for its citizens. Europe is also determined to put an end to Gazprom’s politics of manipulating EU’s energy market, and it is generally sceptical about the chances of Russia’s modernisation under the current conditions.

Putin's second term has been marked by a unmistakenly anti-modern turn in the country's politics. Photo (c) Ria Novosti / Sergey Guneev
To top it all off, European public opinion has turned dramatically against Putin. The persecution of opposition activists, the Pussy Riot trial, the campaign against homosexuals - all this looks cruel and disgusting to Europeans. For them, the Russian regime has become more and more redolent of a 19th century autocracy, teleported into the contemporary world — a regime that is not only non-democratic and capricious, but also dull and old-fashioned. And if in the 19th century many of the other European states were also run by emperors who at least to some extent shared some of Russia’s sensitivities, this is no longer the case. Russia is lonely and out of fashion. If a century ago, it was perceived as a dynamic rising power, it is not now; if 19th century Europe was mesmerised by the power of Russia’s high culture (Tolstoy, Dostoevsky, etc.), this is not the case now. Today, it is the oligarchs and not the artists that symbolise Putin’s Russia. They can buy almost anything but they hardly have anything to sell.
‘Russia is lonely and out of fashion. If a century ago, it was perceived as a dynamic rising power, it is not now; if 19th century Europe was mesmerised by the power of Russia’s high culture, this is not the case now. Today it is the oligarchs and not the artists that symbolise Putin’s Russia. They can buy almost anything... but they hardly have anything to sell.’
While Europeans know that they have many common interests with Russia, they are losing confidence in Russia ever becoming a genuine part of Europe. Polling data indicates that a great majority of Germans, French and Swedes have over the last year changed their perception of Russia from favourable to negative, just at the very moment that public opinion has begun to play a more important factor in European foreign policy. And looking at the dynamics of the political perceptions of Russia in the West, and the politics of the Russian government, it is unlikely that the relations between them will improve while Putin remains in office.
Unfortunately, the Kremlin finds it much easier to play the anti-Western card than it does to embrace the advantages of closer alignment with the West. Putin is not simply playing games when he accuses the West of instigating the anti-government protests last winter, he truly believes it. And he also takes comfort in his reading of global financial crisis. This can be summarised in two simple points: first, the West is not as powerful as Moscow used to believe and second, globalisation is not as irreversible as it looked some years ago. We can expect that these two points will inform much of Russia’s foreign policy thinking over the coming decade. We should assume the continued emphasis on the preservation of Russia’s financial independence (taking care of the financial reserves) and political stability (no space for opposition); an effort to secure Russia’s own economic region by making the Eurasian Union a reality; attempts to build national identity by establishing closer alliance with the Orthodox Church; and moves to nationalise the elites by forcing them to repatriate both their money and their families.
We have reached a point where is probably more realistic to wait for political change in Russia, than it is to wait for a closer cooperation within the current status quo — to press not the ‘reset’ but a ‘pause’ button in dealings with Russia. While the West has many reasons to fear instability or further authoritarian mutation as a result of political change in Moscow, the explosion of civic energy after the 2011 parliamentary elections do give grounds to hope that a more democratic Russia will emerge. It is assumed by some that a post-Putin Russia would be accompanied by a radical shift in Moscow’s foreign policy.

Imagining a post-Putin Russia

But how different would the foreign policy of post-Putin Russia be? Can we suppose that even if political change brings a relatively effective democratic government to power in Moscow, Russia will become a natural ally of the West in preserving the liberal international order? Can a change of regime be enough to change Russia’s view of the world order, so shaped by its geography and history? Could such a change temper the deep-seated fears and concerns of both elites and the public?
These questions are simply impossible to answer. It is always easy to have dreams or nightmares about a post-Putin Russia; it is more difficult to have credible predictions. We do not know if, how and when democratic change will take place, or what its driving forces will be. We do not know if democratic change will bring back new fears of territorial disintegration. And we can only speculate who the political leaders of new democratic Russia will be.
Some analysts have insisted that Russia’s foreign policy will not change significantly, since it represents Russia’s national interests. I would argue the one thing we can be sure of is that democratic transformation will bring public opinion to the fore in shaping Russia’s foreign policy. New democratic leaders, if and when they arrive, will not be able to cast aside public sentiment. Foreign policy will likely be a major source of legitimacy for any post-Putin regime.
When it comes to Russia, there is a widespread belief that in order to understand what is going on there, you need to do two things: read the great Russian novels of the last two centuries and follow the oil prices closely. In Russia it is the soul and oil that matters. But looking at opinion polls in addition to that offers useful insights.
‘When it comes to Russia, there is a widespread belief you need to do two things: read the great Russian novels and follow the oil prices. But looking at opinion polls also offers insights.’

What will Russians think?

We cannot possibly predict what Russians will think if and when democratic change comes. But we do already have a gauge on today’s foreign policy views, in particular, the 2012 Transatlantic Trends Survey, a piece of work that was sponsored by the German Marshall fund of the US.
The survey shows that when it comes to foreign policy, a large majority of Russians (71 percent) are inclined to approve the work of the government. Russians generally want their country to assume a strong leadership role in the world, as they are also unenthusiastic about global leadership by either Europe or America. Russians are sceptical about value-driven foreign policy and favour state sovereignty at the expense of human rights. In addition, the majority of Russians broadly support their country’s position on Syria.
These results should not surprise anybody. For years, the Russian worldview has been shaped by Putin’s propaganda machine, and it is also a common enough phenomenon that people tend to trust their governments on matters of foreign policy. What is surprising given the extent of anti-Western propaganda over the last year is that a majority of Russians have a fairly benign view of the West. What are also interesting are the foreign policy preferences of those who have lost trust in the Putin system.
‘On foreign policy matters, ‘Disaffected Russia’ and ‘Anti-Putin Russia’ not only subscribe to Kremlin’s current agenda, but are less likely to support Western priorities’
The Transatlantic Trends Survey data makes it possible to identify these preferences easily enough. Almost half of the Russians surveyed expressed doubt about the fairness of the last elections and the way the institutions work: we can define this group of Russians as ‘Disaffected Russia’. Almost a third of the Russians are openly critical of Putin’s performance, thus representing a more radical element of the ‘Disaffected Russia’ group: we can define them as ‘Anti-Putin Russia’.

Even Putin's greatest detractors are unlikely to disagree about Russia taking a hardline position in world politics, or on the undesirability of either American or European dominance.
Here is the surprising bit: on foreign policy matters, ‘Disaffected Russia’ and ‘Anti-Putin Russia’ not only subscribe to Kremlin’s current agenda, but are less likely to support Western priorities than other groups. So opposition-minded Russians might not like how Russia is ruled today, but they are largely in agreement with her foreign policy. Of course, most analysts realise that the Russian opposition is a strange mixture of pro-western liberals and anti-Western nationalists. Normally, however, we tend to forget about the second group, and this can be very misleading.
So when it comes to foreign policy, we should expect that a democratic Russia will also be a nationalistic Russia, not unlike other regional powers like Turkey. The analysis of the foreign policy opinions of opposition-minded Russian citizens makes us believe that democratic Russia will insist on its role as independent regional power with special interests in the post-Soviet space, and that it is unlikely that she will share the EU’s post-modern view of the world. The survey data also indicate that the Russian public generally does not see China as a military threat, so it is unrealistic to expect that today’s Russian democratic opposition would in government support a coalition between Russia and the West aimed at containing China.
It would of course be a mistake to make far-reaching conclusions based on a single opinion poll or even on all opinion polls. Foreign policy is very rarely shaped by the preferences of the people only, as indeed are such preferences prone to change quickly. Instead, the foreign policy of the post-Putin’s Russia will be determined by many factors that are now impossible to predict: the state of Russia’s economy (and in particular the size of its foreign debt); the political beliefs of its next leaders; the state of global affairs in general; and the policy initiatives of the West. But reading Russian opinion polls today is a healthy antidote to the naive expectations that a democratic change in Russia is an answer to all questions in the bilateral relations. You do not need to be George Kennan to realise that the de-legitimation of the current regime in Russia cannot be reversed. Vladimir Putin’s return to Kremlin blocked the institutional possibility for the evolutionary development of the regime. Democratic change is possible and even likely in Russia. What is unlikely is that a democratic government in Russia will have foreign policy that does not emphasise Russia’s role as independent regional power, and with the ambition to have an economic region of its own.
And while I do personally believe that democratic change in Russia will benefit both Russia and the world, praying for democratic Russia should not be confused with a foreign policy strategy for dealing with Russia.

The author is grateful to Josh Raisher, Program Assistant on Transatlantic Trends Surveys, GMF and Kaat Smets from the Centre for the Study of Political Change (CIRCaP), University of Siena for their help in presenting the survey data

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Five Myths About Russia
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The past several weeks have been very busy, and I haven't had a chance to post quite as much as I'd like to. I thought I'd throw my hat back into the ring with a short post about where Russia is today. Part of what gets me so frustrated about most ...
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Azerbaijan Is Rich. Now It Wants to Be Famous.

via NYT > Home Page by By PETER SAVODNIK on 2/8/13
Oil-rich, velvet-rope-poor Azerbaijan, a country about the size of South Carolina on the Caspian Sea, would very much like to be the world’s next party capital.
 

Pew Research Centre – made public the information according to which Russia’s image in the world, especially in the West, worsened considerably in 2012.

 

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Five Myths About Russia
Forbes
The past several weeks have been very busy, and I haven't had a chance to post quite as much as I'd like to. I thought I'd throw my hat back into the ring with a short post about where Russia is today. Part of what gets me so frustrated about most ...
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Russia mulls resumption of Georgian wine imports
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Gennady Onishchenko, Russia's top sanitation official, said a first round of talks between delegations from both countries was successful Monday, and that a Russian delegation will visit Georgia this month to discuss issues related to restarting the ...



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News Summary: Russia promises to resume imports of Georgian wine, mineral ...
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Azerbaijan Is Rich. Now It Wants to Be Famous.

Azerbaijan Is Rich. Now It Wants to Be Famous.: Oil-rich, velvet-rope-poor Azerbaijan, a country about the size of South Carolina on the Caspian Sea, would very much like to be the world’s next party capital.
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