The Briefing: Putin Vs. Putin by Brian Whitmore Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:24 AM

Friday, September 2, 2016

The Briefing: Putin Vs. Putin by Brian Whitmore Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:24 AM

The Briefing: Putin Vs. Putin by Brian Whitmore
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:24 AM

The emperor is at war with his inner godfather. The autocrat is battling his inner kleptocrat. The commissar is struggling with his inner crime kingpin.

The most consequential political battle in Russia today is not another skirmish among the Kremlin clans; it’s not a showdown between the siloviki and the technocrats; and it’s not a standoff between the regime and the opposition.

No, the battle defining Russia’s next political season is one that appears to be going on between Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Putin.

As the Kremlin leader culls his inner circle, purges the elite, and tries to enforce some limits on the massive graft that pervades Russian politics, he’s also fighting with himself.

And that is because Putin is something of a hybrid.

As veteran Russia-watcher James Sherr has noted, genealogically Putin is a product of the KGB, but sociologically he is a product of the Darwinian chaos and gangster capitalism that marked Russia’s first post-Soviet decade.

Putin’s political DNA may have been formed in Lubyanka, in Yury Andropov’s KGB, where order, hierarchy, discipline, and Soviet great-power ideology were paramount.

But his political socialization took place as vice mayor of St. Petersburg in the 1990s, where, as Karen Dawisha notes in her book Putin’s Kleptocracy, one of his key roles was acting as a liaison between the political and criminal authorities.

It was the Wild Wild East, a world where duplicity was the norm, rules are for sissies, and only might makes right. It was a world where informal networks ruled and you controlled people by corrupting them.

It was a world where only the strong survived. And Putin not only survived, he thrived.

And when he became president, Putin took both of these formative experiences with him to the Kremlin and fused them. He formed a hybrid state: one that acted like a crime syndicate but also ruthlessly consolidated political power and pursued Putin’s great-power ambitions.

“This regime’s unique long-term vitality was due to the fact that, in place of institutions, power resided in informal and often semicriminal networks,” political analyst Vladimir Pastukhov wrote recently in Slon.ru.

“Putin was both the head of state and the leader of this formally nonexistent — but very powerful and vast — organization…Putin’s unique versatility, his ability to be both the prince of light and the prince of darkness, to a large extent explains the success of his long reign.”

It was successful because Putin deftly managed the informal power structures by playing clans off against each other.

It was successful because he skilfully used corruption as a carrot and stick to control the ruling elite and keep it loyal.

It was successful because in times of expanding resources due to high oil prices, there was enough money to go around.

But most importantly, it was successful because it reflected and reinforced deep-seated norms in Russian political culture.

It exploited what political scientist Alena Ledeneva, author of the book Can Russia Modernize, calls“sistema,” the immense web of illicit networks that have long dominated Russian political life.

For much of his rule, Putin was able to enrich his cronies, revive Russia’s power, and raise living standards.

But as oil prices dipped, the economy slid, and living standards fell, the system came under pressure.

And as Russia’s confrontation with the West intensified, the ideological Putin, the one whose main priority is to restore Russia’s superpower status, began to eclipse the kleptocratic Putin.

Lubyanka began to trump St. Petersburg.

This is the context for the dismissals of longtime Putin cronies like former Russian Railways chief Vladimir Yakunin, former Federal Antinarcotics Service chief Viktor Ivanov, and former Kremlin chief of staff Sergei Ivanov.

This is the context for Putin’s efforts to get the elites to repatriate their offshore assets.

And this is the context for the less-bogus-than-usual campaign against corruption.

“Putin is driven now not by personal economic interest but an ideological program — a vision of a nation restored to its due place in history and the world (and, by extension, a vision of his appropriate legacy),” Mark Galeotti, a senior research fellow at the Institute of International Relations in Prague and a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, wrote late last year.

“He has surrounded himself with a small coterie of like-minded cohorts — or at least figures willing and able to play that role — and they are ultimately in charge.”

And by sidelining ambitious heavyweights in his court like Yakunin and Ivanov, he is also removing potential challengers to his rule.

As Moscow-based political analyst Nikolai Petrov wrote recently in Vedomosti, Putin is trying to move away from the collective leadership model reminiscent of Leonid Brezhnev and toward one centered on a single leader, as under Josef Stalin.

But in the process, he is fighting “sistema,” he is fighting the system he built, and he is fighting himself.

“Corruption remains today, in the absence of ideology, the only effective binding element of the Russian world, its saving ether. And Putin, like no other to date, skillfully used the corruption in order to strengthen his personal power,” Pastukhov wrote.

“Now, in the same interests, he believes he needs to start fighting corruption, violating the social contract with the old elites.”

NOTE TO READERS: Be sure to tune in to this week’s Power Vertical Podcast later on September 2, when I will discuss the issues raised in this post with Moscow-based political analyst Nikolai Petrov and Sean Guillory of the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Russian and Eastern European Studies.

Read the whole story

· · · ·

Both Sides Say Ceasefire Largely Holding, Although Ukraine Reports 11 ‘Provocations’ by Liveblog Team
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:24 AM

The Interpreter

Ukraine Day 928: LIVE UPDATES BELOW.

Yesterday’s live coverage of the Ukraine conflict can be found here.

READ OUR SPECIAL REPORT:

An Invasion By Any Other Name: The Kremlin’s Dirty War in Ukraine

Shattered Dreams: Brazil's Olympic-Sized Political Headache
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:23 AM

SPIEGEL ONLINE - International

On the eve of the Olympic Games in Rio, Brazil is embroiled in its deepest political and economic crisis in decades. The countries elites are ensnared in scandal and President Dilma Rousseff is facing possible impeachment.

Time for Plan B: Europe Must Not Be Blackmailed by Turkey
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:22 AM

SPIEGEL ONLINE - International

After agreeing to help the European Union control the flow of migrants heading north, the Turkish government now feels empowered to use the deal as leverage. Europe must now find an alternative to its agreement with Ankara, lest it subject itself to blackmail.

Narcissist and Agitator: Donald Trump Is One of the Greatest Threats of Our Time
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:22 AM

SPIEGEL ONLINE - International

During his campaign, Donald Trump has repeatedly flirted with violence. Crude political notions aside, he lacks the character to become president of the United States and represents a true danger to the entire world.

An International Disaster: Trump Has Shown His True Side, It's Time To Act
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:22 AM

SPIEGEL ONLINE - International

Donald Trump's candidacy started as a joke. Fed by the media and opportunistic politicians, he's become a threat to the US political system and even world peace. Now it's time to treat him as such.

Next Page of Stories

Page 2

Republicans Against Trump: Bush Advisor Wolfowitz Says He'll Likely Vote for Clinton
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:22 AM

SPIEGEL ONLINE - International

In an interview, Paul Wolfowitz, 72, an advisor to former President Bush, discusses the dangers of a Donald Trump presidency, why he will likely vote for the Democrat's candidate this year and mistakes made during the Iraq war.

Putin Says Russia and U.S. Close to Breakthrough Deal on Syria - Bloomberg
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:21 AM

Russia - Google News

Bloomberg

Putin Says Russia and U.S. Close to Breakthrough Deal on Syria
Bloomberg
The U.S. and Russia are intensifying efforts to find common ground in Syria, where multiple countries and multiple extremist and rebel groups have been battling each other for 5 1/2 years.Russia entered the conflict last year on behalf of Assad ...
'Window Closing' on U.S.-Russia Deal on SyriaU.S. News & World Report

all 209 news articles »

Report Finds Ban Hasn’t Halted Use of Cluster Bombs in Syria or Yemen by By SEWELL CHAN
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:20 AM

Russia

Most of the world’s countries have signed a treaty banning the munitions, but not the United States and Russia, where many such bombs were made.

Putin Vs. Putin
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:18 AM

Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

The most important battle going on in Russia today is one between Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Putin.

Beslan Mothers Who Blamed Putin For School Tragedy Sentenced
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:17 AM

Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

A group of women who blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for the Beslan school massacre have been sentenced to either community service or fined.

Uzbekistan Says Karimov In 'Critical' Condition; Reuters Reports He Is Dead
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:17 AM

Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Uzbekistan's cabinet says President Islam Karimov is in critical condition after having a stroke, while Reuters quotes three unnamed diplomatic sources as saying that Karimov has died.

Next Page of Stories

Page 3

Erdogan Claims Success At Clearing Stretch Of Syrian Border
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:17 AM

Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey's incursion into northern Syria has been successful, with a 400-square-kilometer area cleared of Islamic State and Kurdish YPG militia forces.

Министр обороны генерал армии Сергей Шойгу провел селекторное совещание с руководством Вооруженных Сил
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:16 AM

RSS

Был рассмотрен ряд вопросов, связанных, в частности, с вводом в эксплуатацию объектов космодрома Восточный, выполнением гособоронзаказа Государственным космическим научно-производственным
центром имени М.В. Хруничева.

Putin and Abe seek disputed islands deal
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:14 AM

Europe News

Japan’s PM makes
agreement with Russia a top priority

Trump Reasserts Tough Line on Immigrationby webdesk@voanews.com (Jim Malone)
Thursday September 1st, 2016 at 4:42 PM

Voice Of America

If you are waiting for a kinder, gentler Donald Trump on immigration, don’t hold your breath. In what may have been a pivotal day in the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump doubled down on his tough stance on illegal immigration in Phoenix, Arizona late Wednesday, just hours after presenting a more presidential persona in a meeting with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto. Trump outlined an aggressive 10-point plan to stop illegal immigration during his rally, reminding voters of the central issue in his rise to claim the Republican Party’s presidential nomination. Trump’s main focus was on removing criminal elements who had entered the country illegally, and he reiterated his pledge to build a border wall with Mexico and have that country pay for it. Looking for a softer reboot Some moderate Republicans have been pushing Trump to soften his tone on immigration, especially his previous vow to deport the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants who have come into the country over the past several years. Illegal immigration has been Trump's signature issue since he launched his presidential campaign in June of last year. His sometimes divisive rhetoric has also alienated large numbers of Hispanic voters, according to numerous public opinion polls. At the moment, Trump is running behind the levels of support from Hispanic voters accorded to the 2012 Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, and the 2008 nominee, John McCain. Trump seemed to take a firm line in his speech on Wednesday, harkening back to his tough rhetoric during the primary season. “For those here illegally today who are seeking legal status, they will have one route and one route only - to return home and apply for re-entry like everybody else. We will break the cycle of amnesty and illegal immigration. We will break the cycle.” Abrupt about-face Trump’s aggressive stance was a swift change from hours earlier when he met with President Pena Nieto in Mexico City. Trump said they discussed the border wall but not who would pay for it. Pena Nieto did not challenge Trump’s account during their joint press appearance but later said on Twitter he told Trump at the outset of their meeting that Mexico would not pay for the wall. The Hillary Clinton campaign blasted Trump’s Arizona speech in a written statement and accused Trump of “doubling down on his anti-immigrant rhetoric” and attempt at “demonizing immigrants.” Candidate Clinton has also been warning voters of late to beware of any Trump efforts to moderate his rhetoric or policy positions. “And now Trump is trying to rebrand himself as well. But don’t be fooled. There is an old Mexican proverb that says, tell me with whom you walk and I will tell you who you are. Well, we know who Trump is,” Clinton told supporters at a recent rally in Reno, Nevada. Clinton continues to lead Trump in national and key state polls, although some recent national polls have grown tighter. Trump, however, appears to be struggling to broaden his base of support beyond the groups he appealed to in the Republican primaries, according to Georgetown University analyst Stephen Wayne. “Because he appealed to an angry segment of the Republican Party, which is not necessarily the country as a whole. This general election seems to be a referendum for or against Trump. And he won it in the primaries and he’s losing it in the general election because of the very appeals he made in the primaries.” Clinton's high negatives Clinton has some problems of her own. The Trump campaign hammers her on a daily basis for refusing to hold a news conference. And recent polls show an increase in voters who don’t consider her trustworthy, another factor that may explain why Clinton’s lead may be slipping. “Hillary Clinton has massive flaws,” said Jeremy Mayer, an assistant professor of government at George Mason University in Virginia. “And had the Republicans nominated a typical Republican, not a former President Ronald Reagan but just your average politician, the race would probably be neck-and-neck right now, given her vulnerabilities.” Trump’s latest affirmation of his strong stand against illegal immigration may buttress his support among his political base; but, Georgetown’s Stephen Wayne argued that Trump has yet to unify the Republican Party behind his candidacy. “So he has to solidify the Republican base, and he has not done that as yet, and two, he has to reach beyond that base because Republicans have not won a majority in a presidential election since 2004.” Clinton has built a lead since the party conventions in July; but, with the race tightening once again, Gallup pollster Frank Newport cautions there could be more surprises to come in the final two months of the campaign. “If you look at history, things do change between now and election day, so you can’t say everything is frozen at this point.” Both candidates increasingly are likely to focus on the coming presidential debates with the first one scheduled for September 26.

Read the whole story

· · ·

'Window Closing' on U.S.-Russia Deal on Syria - U.S. News & World Report
Thursday September 1st, 2016 at 4:42 PM

Russia - Google News

U.S. News & World Report

'Window Closing' on U.S.-Russia Deal on Syria
U.S. News & World Report
26 and that just a few issues remained to be resolved, it seems increasingly unlikely that the United States and Russia will conclude a deal on Syria before US President Barack Obama andRussian President Vladimir Putin are expected to meet on the ...
Lavrov: Western 'Partners' Have Much Work to Do to Restore Russia's TrustSputnik International

all 43 news articles »

Янукович даст показания по делу о Майдане - РИА Новости
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:33 AM

В Мире – Новости Google

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Янукович даст показания по делу о Майдане
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КИЕВ, 2 сен — РИА Новости. Бывший президент Украины Виктор Янукович даст показания по делу о беспорядках в Киеве в 2013–2014 годах, сообщил в пятницу адвокат экс-главы государства Виталий Сердюк в эфире телеканала "112 Украина". Ранее адвокат Януковича Виталий ...
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US Sanctions More Russian Individuals, Firms Over Ukraineby webdesk@voanews.com (Isabela Cocoli)
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:31 AM

Voice Of America

The United States on Thursday announced additional sanctions aimed at Russia over its continuing support for Ukraine's rebels and the 2014 annexation of Crimea. The Treasury Department said in a statement that it had designated 37 new individuals and companies operating in Crimea and Ukraine for the sanctions list. "Russia continues to provoke instability in eastern Ukraine despite its Minsk commitments," said John Smith, acting director of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control, in charge of levying sanctions. "Treasury stands with our partners in condemning Russia's violation of international law, and we will continue to sanction those who threaten Ukraine's peace, security and sovereignty," he said. According to the Treasury, the move followed the recent extension of European Union economic sanctions, and that together these steps demonstrated "continued international unity in opposing Russia's actions in Ukraine." Russian companies, including construction firms PJSC Mostotrest and SGM-Most, were added to the U.S. list for their assistance in construction of a bridge from Russia to the Crimean Peninsula. Russian engineering firm OMZ OAO was sanctioned for its connections to Gazprombank, which was itself sanctioned in 2014. Several subsidiaries of Russian gas giant Gazprom were also added to the sanctions list. Newly listed was CJSC ABR Management, an asset management firm closely linked to already-sanctioned Rossiya Bank, often called the personal bank of President Vladimir Putin and members of his closest circle. Six officials of the self-proclaimed pro-Russian Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine were entered into Treasury's list as well. The U.S. also sanctioned 11 Crimean officials, including top ministers. Russian officials have said in the past that sanctions levied over its actions in Ukraine have undermined efforts to resolve the conflict.

Read the whole story

· ·

Putin Denies Hacking DNCby webdesk@voanews.com (VOA News)
Friday September 2nd, 2016 at 8:30 AM

Voice Of America

Russian President Vladimir Putin maintained in an interview with media outlet Bloomberg that Russia had nothing to doing with the hacking of the U.S. Democratic National Committee. Thousands of the DNC's emails and documents were hacked earlier this year, revealing that the DNC gave preferential treatment to Hillary Clinton over her Democratic rival Bernie Sanders. Both were vying to become the party's presidential candidate. "Listen, does it even matter who hacked this data," Putin said in the interview conducted in the Pacific port city of Vladivostok. "The important thing is the content that was given to the public." In the wake of the release of the data, DNC chairman and U.S. lawmaker Debbie Wasserman Schultz stepped down from her DNC responsibilities. "I don't know anything about it," Putin said, adding "and on a state level Russia has never done this." Putin also denied in the Bloomberg interview allegations the hack was an attempt by Russia to influence the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Putin beat back that accusation, saying that move would require a subtle understanding of American politics. "To do that you need to have a finger on the pulse and get the specifics of the domestic political life of the U.S.," he said. "I'm not sure that even our Foreign Ministry experts are sensitive enough." The Russian president's interview with Bloomberg came just two days before world leaders, including Putin and U.S. President Barack Obama, arrive in China for the Group of 20 meeting. In late July, the website Wikileaks published a collection of nearly 20,000 emails obtained from the DNC. Wikileaks did not reveal its source, though a hacker who goes by the name of Guccifer 2.0 claimed responsibility for the attack. Members of the Democratic Party and members of the U.S. intelligence community have repeatedly accused Russian intelligence services as being behind the hack.

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RUSSIA and THE WEST - РОССИЯ и ЗАПАД

Friday, September 2, 2016