Saturday, March 1, 2014

What Is Russia’s Aim in Ukraine? - NYTimes Editorial: "The situation has now gone from chaos to the verge of military confrontation... Russia and the West both have legitimate interests in Ukraine and its future. Fomenting more tension in a country that is already in upheaval is not in anyone’s interest. Nor is encouraging a permanent break between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine."

What Is Russia’s Aim in Ukraine?

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President Vladimir Putin of Russia played the genial host at the Olympic Games in Sochi, but his dangerous approach to geopolitics could be his true legacy.
On Friday, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Nations, Yuriy Sergeyev, said that Russian troops had taken control of two airports in Crimea and that the Russian Navy was blocking the Ukrainian Coast Guard.
Moscow denied that it had sent troops in. But the fact is, Russia was outrageously provocative when it put 150,000 troops on high alert on Wednesday for war games near Ukraine’s border and then on Friday allowed the deposed Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, to give a news conference when he showed up in the Russian city Rostov-on-Don.
The situation has now gone from chaos to the verge of military confrontation. The pro-Russia region of Crimea is seething, and the new central government that took over in Kiev after Mr. Yanukovych fled is barely functioning.
President Obama, speaking at the White House, was right to warn Russia against any military move and to indicate that the United States would join the world in condemning a violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. He also said that “there will be costs” for any intervention in Ukraine, though it was not clear what, if realistically anything, that might involve.
Mr. Obama spoke after armed men of uncertain allegiance took up positions at two airports in Simferopol, the regional capital of Crimea. Their military uniforms bore no insignia, and it was not obvious who they were or who was commanding them.
There were no immediate signs of confrontations or panic, but The Times reported that armored personnel carriers with Russian markings appeared on roads outside Simferopol, sometimes alone but at other times in long columns of military vehicles. It was unclear whether the movement was a Russian push to occupy the city, a show of strength or simply a routine rotation of Russian military equipment.
Russia has many military facilities in Crimea, where its Black Sea fleet is based, and the area has stronger historical ties to Russia than to Ukraine’s central government in Kiev. While promising to defend the interests of Russian citizens in Ukraine, Moscow has said it will not intervene by force.
But whether Mr. Putin will abide by that promise is unclear. In 2008, he sent Russian forces into neighboring Georgia, ostensibly to protect the secessionist Georgian enclave of South Ossetia; the real goal was to weaken the pro-Western government in Tbilisi.
Russia and the West both have legitimate interests in Ukraine and its future. Fomenting more tension in a country that is already in upheaval is not in anyone’s interest. Nor is encouraging a permanent break between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine.
Russia and the West need to work together to help stabilize the country politically and develop an economic and trade package that will begin to resolve the economic crisis.
Mr. Putin’s dangerous tactics are sure to backfire and do more to alienate Ukrainians than to encourage them to accept any Russian role in their nation’s future.
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Crimea’s Leader Moves to Cement Control Over Region

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KIEV, Ukraine — The newly installed, pro-Russia prime minister of Crimea declared on Saturday that he had sole control over the military and the police in the disputed peninsula and he appealed to President Vladimir Putin of Russia for help in safeguarding the region
Ukraine’s government accused Russian armed forces on Friday of taking up positions in Crimea, an autonomous republic on the Black Sea, in what Ukrainian officials said was an invasion and a violation of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. President Obama on Friday warned Russia against military intervention.
In his statement, the Crimean prime minister, Sergei Aksenov, said: “Understanding my responsibility for the life and safety of citizens, I appeal to the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, for assistance in providing peace and tranquillity on the territory of the autonomous Republic of Crimea.”
“As chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea,” Mr. Aksenov said, “I make the decision to temporarily put the armed units and groups of the Interior Ministry, the Security Service, the armed forces, the Emergency Situations Ministry, the fleet, the Tax Service, and the border guards under my direct control. All commanders shall follow only my orders and instructions”
He added, “I ask anyone who disagrees to leave the service.”
The Kremlin, in a statement released to Russian news services, said it “will not ignore” the request of assistance from Mr. Aksenov.
And separately, in what appeared to reflect coordinated Russian responses after the Crimean appeals for help, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that unidentified gunmen “directed from Kiev” had tried to size control of the Ministry of Internal Affairs building in Simferopol.
The Foreign Ministry said “vigilante groups” trying to seize the building had been repelled, but said the attack “confirms the desire of prominent political circles in Kiev to destabilize the situation in the peninsula.” The ministry urged officials in Kiev to “show restraint.”
Crimea, while part of Ukraine, has enjoyed a large degree of autonomy under an agreement with the federal government in Kiev since shortly after Ukrainian independence from the Soviet Union. The strategically-important peninsula, which has been the subject of military disputes for centuries, has strong historic, linguistic and cultural ties to Russia. The population of roughly two million is predominantly Russian, followed by a large number of Ukrainians.
On Friday, heavily armed men took up positions at Crimea’s two main airports, and officials in Kiev said soldiers had also seized control of the regional Parliament building and the headquarters of the regional government, in the capital of Simferopol.
On Saturday, the men patrolled the perimeter of the Parliament building. There were no signs of panic in Simferopol, where police blocked off a central street but traffic was otherwise moving normally; many shops open amid general calm.
American officials did not directly confirm a series of public statements by senior Ukrainian officials, including the acting president, Oleksandr V. Turchynov, that Russian troops were being deployed to Crimea in violation of the two countries’ agreements there.
Mr. Obama, however, cited “reports of military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine,” and he said, “Any violation of Ukrainian sovereignty would be deeply destabilizing.”
“There will be costs,” Mr. Obama said in a hastily arranged statement from the White House.
The pointed warning came after a day in which military analysts struggled to understand a series of unusual events in Crimea, including a mobilization of armored personnel carriers with Russian markings on the roads of the region’s capital, Simferopol, and a deployment of well-armed, masked gunmen at Crimea’s two main airports.
“The Russian Federation began an unvarnished aggression against our country,” Mr. Turchynov said in televised remarks on Friday evening. “Under the guise of military exercises, they entered troops into the autonomous Republic of Crimea.”
He said that Russian forces had captured the regional Parliament and the headquarters of the regional government, and that they had seized other targets, including vital communications hubs, as well as blocked unspecified Ukrainian military assets.
American officials said they believed that unusual helicopter movements over Crimea were evidence that a military intervention was underway, but cautioned that they did not know the scale of the operation or the Russians’ motives.
Russia on Friday denied that it had encroached on Ukrainian territory or would do so. After an emergency meeting on Ukraine at the United Nations Security Council, the Russian ambassador,Vitaly I. Churkin, said that any troop movements were in line with arrangements that allow it to station soldiers in the area.
“We have an agreement with Ukraine on the presence of the Russian Black Sea fleet and we operate under this agreement,” Mr. Churkin said.
Still, the developments in Crimea sent Ukraine’s interim government, which was appointed recently, deep into crisis mode as it confronted the prospect of an armed effort to split off Crimea, an autonomous region with close historic ties to Russia, from the Ukrainian mainland.
Analysts said the reported moves in the area had parallels to steps Russia took before a war with Georgia in 2008 over the largely ethnic Russian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. There was little to indicate if President Vladimir V. Putin intended to escalate the challenge to Ukraine beyond nonviolent provocation of the mostly pro-Russian population in the region.
Mr. Turchynov, the acting president, also made comparisons to Georgia. “They are provoking us into military conflict,” he said. “They began annexation of territory.”
In his address, Mr. Turchynov added, “I personally appeal to President Putin, demanding that he immediately stop the provocation and withdraw troops.”
The crisis in Crimea is the latest a series of rapidly unfurling events that began when scores of people were killed in Kiev last week during a severe escalation of civic unrest that had been underway since late November.
Protests started after Russia pressured Viktor F. Yanukovych, then the president, to back away from political and free-trade agreements with the European Union that he had long promised to sign, setting off an East-West confrontation reminiscent of the Cold War.
After the recent killings, Mr. Yanukovych reached a tentative truce with opposition leaders in talks brokered by the foreign ministers of France, Germany and Poland, but within 24 hours he fled Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, and an overwhelming majority of lawmakers voted to strip him of power, saying he had abandoned his position.
On Friday, a week later, Mr. Yanukovych resurfaced for a news conference in Rostov-on-Don in Russia, in which he said he was still the legitimate president and urged Russia not to intervene militarily in Crimea.
Mr. Obama’s warning suggested a deepening uncertainty among American officials about Mr. Putin’s intentions in the region despite a series of high-level contacts in recent days, including a telephone call between the two presidents one week ago. Mr. Yanukovych was an ally of Russia, and his toppling has left the Kremlin grappling for a response.
While American officials said that intelligence indicated that a Russian operation was underway, Mr. Obama stopped short of calling it an invasion. Part of the confusion, one official said, was that Russia routinely moves troops between military bases in Crimea.
Another American official said that intelligence reports from the region were “all over the place,” but that the administration believed that Russia had moved some of its forces into Ukraine, while some of the movement, officials said, seemed to be an increase in protective measures around Russian military installations.
Though he threatened an unspecified cost to Russia, Mr. Obama has limited options to respond to an intervention. Officials said he could cancel his participation in a Group of 8 meeting in Sochi, Russia, in June. The administration could also break off talks on a potential trade agreement. Russia sent a delegation to Washington this week to explore closer trade and commercial ties.
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BBC News - Ukraine crisis: Obama warns Russia against intervention

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1 March 2014 Last updated at 02:44 ET
President Obama: "Any violation of Ukraine sovereignty would be deeply destabilising"
US President Barack Obama has warned Russia there will be "costs" for any military intervention in Ukraine.
He said he was deeply concerned by reports of Russian military movements inside the country.
Ukraine's acting president has accused Russia of deploying troops to the Ukrainian region of Crimea and trying to provoke Kiev into "armed conflict".
Crimea's pro-Moscow prime minister has asked Russian authorities for help in maintaining peace in the region.
"I appeal to the president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, to provide assistance in ensuring peace and tranquillity on the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea," Serhiy Aksyonov said in a statement.
Mr Aksyonov, who was appointed by the Crimean parliament on Thursday, also said he was taking control of Crimea's interior ministry, armed forces, fleet and border guards "on a temporary basis".
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From the scene

image of Oleg BoldyrevOleg BoldyrevBBC Russian, Simferopol
Passengers at the main airport in Simferopol were waiting for their flight to Istanbul when they were told airspace over the city was closed and the flight would not leave until the next morning at the earliest.
Some considered making the 500km (310-mile) trip to the nearest international airport, in Odessa.
Meanwhile, the airport car park was still being patrolled by heavily-armed soldiers in uniforms that gave no indication of where they were from.
News from elsewhere was no less alarming. The main television station was taken over by armed men who said they were from Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
Reports came in that fibre optic lines connecting Crimea to the rest of Ukraine were either blocked or damaged.
If the mobile or internet connection goes down, it will be the most palpable indication yet of an emergency situation for the local people.
"All commanders are to obey only my orders and instructions," Mr Aksyonov said. "I ask all those who refuse to do so to resign."
The new cabinet in Ukraine is due to meet for the first time on Saturday to discuss the deepening crisis over Russia's reported military deployments.
Russia's UN ambassador earlier insisted any troop movements in Crimea were within an existing arrangement with Ukraine.
Overnight reports said armed men in unidentified military uniforms had seized another airfield.
On Friday they took over airports in the Crimean capital, Simferopol, and Sevastopol, where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based.
Ukrainian media citing local officials said 13 Russian aircraft carrying nearly 2,000 suspected troops had landed at a military air base near Simferopol. The report remains unconfirmed.
Russian armoured vehicles and helicopters were also seen in and around Simferopol and Sevastopol.
Flights from and to Simferopol were cancelled with airlines saying airspace over the peninsula had been closed.
The armed men also moved in on Crimea's parliament, state television building and telecommunication centres.
'Profound interference'
Speaking from the White House, President Obama commended Ukraine's interim government for its "restraint".
"Any violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilising, which is not in the interests of Ukraine, Russia or Europe," he said.
"It would represent a profound interference in matters that must be determined by the Ukrainian people. It would be a clear violation of Russia's commitment to respect the independence and sovereignty and borders of Ukraine - and of international laws."
He added: "Just days after the world came to Russia for the Olympic games, it would invite the condemnation of nations around the world. And, indeed, the United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine."
Mr Obama did not spell out what any US response might be. However, the BBC's Beth McLeod in Washington says the US is considering exerting economic pressure by withholding the deeper trade ties that Moscow seeks.
It is also considering boycotting a G8 summit hosted by Russia, she adds, although that is not until June.
Georgia scenario
In a TV address on Friday, Ukraine's interim President Olexander Turchynov said Moscow wanted the new government to react to provocations so it could annex Crimea.
He appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to "stop provocations and start negotiations".
He said Russia was behaving as it did before sending troops into Georgia in 2008 over the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which have large ethnic Russian populations.
"They are implementing the scenario like the one carried out in Abkhazia, when after provoking a conflict, they started an annexation of the territory," Mr Turchynov said.
Map of the Crimea peninsula
Armed men patrol at the airport in Simferopol. 28 Feb 2014Armed men in unidentified military uniforms took control of airports in Simferopol and Sevastopol
Russian armoured personnel carriers and a truck are near the town of Bakhchisarai, Crimea. 28 Feb 2014Russian armoured personnel carriers were seen near the town of Bakhchisarai, Crimea
Security camera captures armed men inside regional parliament in Simferopol Security cameras captured armed men inside the regional parliament in Simferopol
Men calling themselves "local militia" at a checkpoint  the city of ArmyanskMen calling themselves "local militia" have set up checkpoints on roads connecting Crimea to the rest of Ukraine
However, Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, said that any Russian military movements in Crimea were within Moscow's long-standing arrangement with Ukraine on the deployment of military assets.
"We are acting within the framework of that agreement," he said, after a closed-door meeting of the UN Security Council.
He did not give details of any Russian military deployment.
The Kremlin said President Putin had spoken of the "extreme importance of not allowing a further escalation of violence" during telephone conversations with Western leaders.
Ex-leader apology
On Friday, Ukraine's former President Viktor Yanukovych made his first public appearance since being ousted from office a week ago.
Speaking in Russia, he apologised for not "having enough strength to keep stability" in Ukraine and called his usurpers "young, neo-fascist thugs".
Mr Yanukovych said he would "continue to struggle for the future of Ukraine", but said he would only return if his safety could be guaranteed.
Ukraine has started procedures demanding his extradition.
Mr Yanukovych is wanted on suspicion of mass murder following violent clashes between police and protesters last week that left more than 80 dead.
Ukraine's political crisis began in November when Mr Yanukovych rejected a trade deal with the EU in favour of a similar agreement with Russia.
The move brought thousands of Western-leaning protesters out on to the streets calling for his resignation and closer ties with the EU.
Since he was deposed, tensions have shifted to Crimea where the majority of the population are ethnic Russians.
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A ‘deeply concerned’ Obama warns Russia against action in Crimea

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Earlier in the day, the new Ukrainian government said that hundreds of soldiers in green camouflage, without insignia but carrying military-style automatic rifles, had taken over two airports in Crimea. Regularly scheduled flights continued, at least until nightfall, when the airspace above Crimea, a region of Ukraine with deep ties to Russia, was suddenly declared closed.
Internet videos of Russian military helicopters flying over Crimea’s muddy winter fields went viral Friday. Russian IL-76 planes suspected of carrying 2,000 troops landed at a military base in Gvardiysky, near the regional capital of Simferopol, according to Crimea’s ATR television.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Moscow had informed Ukraine that it would be moving armored units from its Black Sea navy base in the city of Sevastopol deeper into Crimean territory to protect its operations.
In his remarks, Obama avoided confirming the Russian military movements. But U.S. officials said that confirmation of an influx of troops had prompted the president to speak.
“Any violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilizing, which is not in the interests of Ukraine, Russia or Europe,” Obama said.
On Saturday, the Russian foreign ministry said “unidentified gunmen directed from Kiev” had tried to capture the Crimean interior ministry headquarters. Calling the attempt a “treacherous provocation,” which resulted in casualties, Moscow said that “decisive action” had repelled the “vigilante groups.”
“This confirms the desire of prominent political circles in Kiev to destabilize the peninsula,” the foreign ministry said, in a statement posted on its website. “We encourage those who give such orders from Kiev to show restraint. We believe it is irresponsible to continue whipping up the already tense situation in the Crimea.”
Russian news services also reported Saturday morning that the Kremlin will not ignore Crimean Prime Minister Serhiy Aksyonov’s request for help in maintaining “peace and tranquility” there.
Aksyonov, in making the plea, noted that the central government of Ukraine does not control the situation in the region, as evidenced by the “unidentified” armed men and military equipment that have become so visible.
Whether the Russians were coming, or already here, consumed an anxious new government in Kiev and the residents of Crimea.
The armed men at the airports refused to answer any questions. Residents and outside experts speculated that they might be local paramilitaries, security contractors or even members of an anti-riot police unit that was blamed for the deaths of protesters who packed Kiev’s Independence Square in recent months, leading to the ouster last week of President Viktor Yanukovych. The unit, called the Berkut, was disbanded by the Ukrainian parliament this week and then welcomed to Crimea as heroes.
The men also could have been Russian troops, including members from special anti-terrorist squads used to protect Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, which is anchored here. Units from the Russian fleet are often seen on the highways here.
The Ukrainian parliament demanded that Russia halt what lawmakers described as violations of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
“What is happening can be called an armed invasion and occupation. In violation of all international treaties and norms. This is a direct provocation for armed bloodshed in the territory of a sovereign state,” said Arsen Avakov, Ukraine’s new interior minister.
The U.N. Security Council held an emergency, closed-door meeting Friday in response to a request from Ukraine’s U.N. ambassador, Yuriy Sergeyev, who cited “the deterioration of the situation” in Crimea.
The U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity about internal deliberations, declined to provide numbers or specific locations of Russian deployments. Sergeyev told the Security Council that there had been an “illegal crossing [of] the borders by Russian military transport aircraft IL-76, about 10 of them, and that 11 military attack helicopters had also violated Ukrainian air space.”
House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) said in a statement Friday that “it appears that the Russian military now controls the Crimean peninsula.”
An administration official said options being considered by the United States and its European partners if the Russians do not pull back included canceling attendance at the June G-8 summit to be held in Sochi, site of the Winter Olympics, and rejecting Russian overtures for deepening trade and commercial ties. The official also cited an indirect impact on the value of the ruble.
There was no overt discussion of a Western military response. Asked what Ukraine wanted the international community to do, Sergeyev told reporters after the Security Council meeting: “We want you to help us bring the truth around the world. . . . Political support — do everything possible in insurance of preventive diplomacy. Still we have a chance to stop the negative developments . . . with strong voice around the world.”
The council decided to send a mediator to Ukraine and indicated that it may hold further meetings.
In a speech Friday evening, Ukraine’s interim president, Oleksandr Turchynov, accused Moscow of “trying to provoke” Kiev into an “armed conflict.”
Turchynov said the Russians were pursing an “Abkhazia plan,” suggesting that Moscow was interested in a reprise of its 2008 war with Georgia, where it wrested control of two breakaway republics, South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
But Ukraine is much larger — and far more complicated — perhaps requiring a more subtle strategy. That line of thinking led to speculation that Russia was encouraging loyal civilian ­forces to put on unmarked uniforms, take up arms and hold ground for Russian troops, should they be deployed.
Ukraine’s new leaders assert that troops from the Black Sea Fleet had also blocked entrances to Belbek’s dual civilian and military airport near Sevastopol.
A spokesman for the Black Sea Fleet denied the reports that its troops were involved, according to the Interfax news agency.
“No subdivision of the Black Sea Fleet has been advanced into the Belbek area, let alone involved in blocking it,” the spokesman said. “Given the unstable situation around the Black Sea Fleet ­bases in the Crimea, and the places where our service members live with their families, security has been stepped by the Black Sea Fleet’s anti-terror units.”
At the Belbek airport, armed men and a military transport truck blocked the entrance. Whoever the men were, they did not resemble the more motley civilian self-defense militias operating here. They were trained soldiers. When a man who appeared to be a Russian officer with two bodyguards approached them, they spread out in defensive, flanking positions, squatted, their fingers off the triggers, and waited for orders.
A convoy of armored personnel carriers stopped alongside a major highway here, and soldiers inside one of the vehicles said in a brief interview that they were Russian Federation troops, from a base in the Krasnodar region, about 300 miles to the east in Russia.
In the Balaklava district near Sevastopol, at least 20 men wearing the uniform of the Black Sea Fleet and carrying automatic rifles surrounded a Ukrainian border guard post Friday, initiating a tense standoff with the border police inside, Reuters news agency reported.
In Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin broke his week-long silence on Ukraine with a mixed message. He ordered Russian officials to consult with other nations as well as the International Monetary Fund on means of financial assistance for Ukraine. He also said that efforts to maintain and promote trade between Russia and Ukraine should continue.
At the same time, Putin said Moscow would consider the possibility of sending humanitarian supplies to Crimea.
Secretary of State John F. Kerry spoke Friday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
“We raised the issue of the airports, raised the issue of armored vehicles, raised the issue of personnel in various places,” Kerry said. “And while we were told that they are not engaging in any violation of the sovereignty and do not intend to, I nevertheless made it clear that that could be misinterpreted at this moment, and that there are enough tensions that it is important for everybody to be extremely careful not to inflame the situation and not to send the wrong messages.”
DeYoung reported from Washington. Kathy Lally in Moscow, Will Englund in Kiev and Anne Gearan in Washington contributed to this report.
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Crimea crisis: pro-Russian leader appeals to Putin for help | World news

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The crisis in Ukraine was deepening on Saturday as Crimea's pro-Russian prime minister called forVladimir Putin to intervene while Washington warned Moscow any military action would lead to 'costs'.
Sergei Aksenov, the pro-Russian prime minister of Crimea, declared himself in charge of all military forces, police and other security services in the autonomous Ukrainian region, while also making a direct appeal to the Russian president.
In a statement reported by local and Russian news agencies, Aksenov said any elements of the armed forces, police, national security service and border guards who did not agree to answer only to his orders should leave their posts.
"Understanding my responsibility for the life and security of citizens, I appeal to the president ofRussia Vladimir Putin for assistance in guaranteeing peace and calmness on the territory of the autonomous republic of Crimea," Aksenov said in his statement.
With pro-Russian forces already in apparent control of Crimea's key airport and parliament building, and Russian troops reportedly on the move across the peninsula, the White House warned against any further escalation in what has rapidly degenerated into the most tense regional crisis since the Russia-Georgia war six years ago. Aksenov, the head of the main pro-Russia party on the peninsula, was appointed by the Crimean parliament on Thursday as tensions soared over the authorities resistance to the new authorities in Kiev, who took power last week.
In a stark message delivered after fresh US intelligence assessments of Russia's presence in the southern region, Obama said any Russian intervention would constitute a "clear violation" of international law.
"We are now deeply concerned by reports over Russian military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine," Obama said. "Any violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilising."
He added: "Just days after the world came to Russia for the Olympic Games it would invite the condemnation of nations around the world. Indeed, the United States will stand with the international community in affirming there will be costs for any military intervention in the Ukraine."
The president took the unusual step of issuing the remarks from the White House late on Friday, after postponing a scheduled appearance at a Democratic national committee meeting in Washington DC.
His remarks came amid reports from Ukrainian officials in Kiev that hundreds of Russian troops were in Crimea. Ukraine's acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, accused Putin of "provocations" and urged him to pull back, while interior minister Arsen Avakov described the takeover of the airports as a "military invasion and occupation".
Crimea unrest - front slide  Russian armoured personnel carriers reported to be heading to Simferopol of Crimea, Ukraine. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
In his statement, Obama praised the interim authorities in Kiev for their restraint.
Pentagon and White House national security advisors had spent the day scrambling to obtain reliable information about the nature of armed forces taking control of government infrastructure in Crimea.
Earlier in the afternoon, the US administration had been vague about the assessment of Russian activity in Ukraine, saying only that officials were "investigating … whether Russia might be crossing the line in any way" and raising concerns about the nature of pro-Russian forces in Crimea.
The US secretary of state, John Kerry, said he had phoned Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and received assurances about reports of Russian forces in Crimea.
"We raised the issue of the airport, raised the issue of armoured vehicles, raised the issue of personnel in various places," Kerry said. "While we were told that they are not engaging in any violation of the sovereignty and do not intend to, I nevertheless made it clear that that could be misinterpreted at this moment and that there are enough tensions that it is important for everybody to be extremely careful not to inflame the situation and not to send the wrong messages."
However, the Obama administration hardened its stance through the afternoon, as doubts grew over Moscow's assurances. Ukraine's ambassador to the UN, Yuriy Sergeyev, called for a security council meeting, claiming that 10 Russian military transport aircraft and 11 Russian military attack helicopters had crossed into Ukraine's airspace.
"We are strong enough to defend ourselves," Sergeyev told reporters outside the council chamber.
Moments before Obama's remarks, the US ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power, addressed reporters in New York. "We are gravely disturbed by reports of Russian military deployments in the Crimea," she said, adding that Moscow should "pull back" and "stand down" its military presence in the peninsula.
A senior administration official said the US is considering pulling out of the G8 summit in Russia.
A US boycott of the June meeting would be a major blow to Putin, particularly if backed by European G8 members- the UK, Italy, Germany and France.
"We are consulting with European partners and considering options," the senior administration official told the Guardian. "It is hard to see how we and other European leaders would attend the G8 in Sochi if Russia is intervening in Ukraine."
The forthright US demands contrasted with the cautious approach taken by Washington for much of the week, amid some criticism that the Obama administration has been impotent in the face of a rapidly deteriorating situation in Ukraine's primarily Russian-speaking regions in the east and south.
Earlier on Friday, the White House press secretary, Jay Carney, repeatedly avoided questions about what the Obama administration would do if Russia was judged to have intervened across the border.
"I'm not going to speculate on what we might do if something might happen," Carney said.
The British prime minister, David Cameron, spoke to Putin on Friday and reinforced the message that Moscow should respect Ukraine's territorial integrity. Downing Street said both agreed that free and fair elections were the best way to secure the country's future. A No 10 spokesman said: "The prime minister emphasised that all countries should respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. President Putin agreed, stressing that Russian military exercises in the area had been planned before the current situation in Ukraine."
Speaking to Cameron and other EU leaders, including Angela Merkel, Putin insisted that Russia was not violating Ukraine's sovereignty and had no intention of doing so. But Putin's constructive tone and telephone diplomacy was starkly at odds with the reality on the ground in Crimea, where the parliament and both airports have fallen into the hands of pro-Russian armed units in rapid succession.
Ukraine's fugitive president Viktor Yanukovych gives a news conference in Rostov-on-Don, a city in southern Russia about 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) from Moscow. Ukraine's fugitive president Viktor Yanukovych gives a news conference in Rostov-on-Don, a city in southern Russia. Photograph: Pavel Golovkin/AP
The EU seems to have been taken by surprise by the fast-moving events. Three governments in the EU on Friday voiced concern about the sudden armed manoeuvres in Crimea. But the foreign ministers of Germany, France, and Poland – all in Kiev last Friday to mediate a settlement in Ukraine – failed to make any mention of Russia in their statement, while pressing the new government in Kiev to assuage Russian alarm about discriminatory policies.
"We are deeply concerned with the tensions in Crimea. Everything must be done to decrease the tension in the eastern region and promote peaceful discussions among relevant parties," the ministers said.
The Europeans are leaning on the new government in Kiev to make a gesture that would help deny Moscow a pretext for intervening in Ukraine, primarily by providing assurances of Russian minority and language rights. In one of its first acts at the weekend following the ousting of Viktor Yanukovych, the new parliament in Kiev rescinded legislation allowing for Russian to be the country's second official language. The Europeans want that new policy reversed.
"There are expectations on the part of minorities, especially on the part of the Russian minority in Ukraine," said Germany's foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. "They want their rights to be respected. Protecting the rights of minorities is something that the new government has to provide for and has to be very clear and outspoken, not only in their words but also with the respective legislative action.
"The government now has to prove that it is the government of the whole of Ukraine, the north, the south, the east, and the west, that they actually stand up for those parts of the country. Legislative measures, as have been taken recently, have to be made redundant. We have to make sure that that is the case."
Meanwhile, Austria, Switzerland and Liechtenstein, said they were freezing the assets of Yanukovych and his millionaire dentist son, Oleksandr, in response to a request from Kiev targeting the fortunes of up to 20 of the Yanukovych clique. Yanukovych's family, his former prime minister and former chief of staff all have substantial properties, businesses, and bank accounts in Austria. The foreign ministry in Vienna said assets were being frozen. But the details were leaked to the Viennese press before being implemented, leaving it unclear whether the assets had already been shifted.
The move follows claims that Yanukovych and his deposed government stole £40bn from the Ukrainian treasury.
Swiss authorities said the asset freeze would come into force on Friday at noon. The prosecutor's office in Geneva said it had also launched a money-laundering investigation against Yanukovych and his son. "A penal investigation for severe money laundering is currently being conducted in Geneva against Viktor Yanukovych and his son Oleksandr," a statement said.
It said prosecutor Yves Bertossa and the police had searched the office of a company owned by the son on Thursday morning and seized some documents. The same day Switzerland said it would order Swiss banks to freeze any funds found to be linked to the family.
Austria said it would freeze the bank accounts of 18 Ukrainians as a precaution until EU sanctions came into force.
In London, the Foreign Office said it was still working with EU partners on implementing sanctions against individuals after they were agreed on Thursday last week. No individuals to be targeted have yet been named.
Italy will take punitive measures if and when adopted by the EU, foreign ministry spokesmen Aldo Amati said. Spain said Austria had made a bilateral decision and Madrid would move in line withEuropean Union policy on the matter.
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Обама: любое нарушение суверенитета Украины будет дестабилизирующим

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ВАШИНГТОН, 1 мар — РИА Новости, Петр Мартынычев, Алексей Богдановский. Вашингтон продолжит обсуждать ситуацию на Украине напрямую с российским руководством, заявил президент США Барак Обама.
По словам главы американского государства, недавно у него состоялся разговор с президентом России Владимиром Путиным.
"Мы продолжим обсуждать ситуацию с нашими партнерами в ЕС и поддерживать прямые контакты с властями России", — сказал Обама.
Любое возможное нарушение суверенитета и территориальной целостности Украины крайне дестабилизирует обстановку, заявил он.
"США выступают за суверенитет и территориальную целостность Украины… Любое нарушение суверенитета и территориальной целостности будет глубоко дестабилизирующим. США вместе с международным сообществом подтвердят, что будет любая военная интервенция на Украине будет иметь свою цену", — сказал Обама.

Как на Украине сменилась власть

Смена власти произошла на Украине в минувшие выходные. 22 февраля Верховная Рада отстранила Януковича от власти, изменила конституцию, возложила исполнение обязанностей президента на спикера Александра Турчинова и назначила президентские выборы на 25 мая. Янукович заявил, что остается законно избранным главой государства, а в стране есть все признаки государственного переворота. Москва считает, что легитимность решений Верховной рады вызывает сомнения. За развитием событий на Украине следите в хронике РИА Новости >>
Генпрокуратура Украины объявила Януковича в международный розыск. Ранее в ведомстве сообщили, что подозревают его и бывшего главу МВД Виталия Захарченко в умышленном убийстве протестующих в Киеве.
В четверг Виктор Янукович выступил с обращением к украинскому народу, в котором заявил, что вынужден просить власти РФ обеспечить ему личную безопасность от действий экстремистов. Как сообщил РИА Новости источник во властных структурах РФ, просьба Януковича была удовлетворена на территории РФ. Читайте подробнее >>
Виктор Янукович, заявивший о своей легитимности в качестве президента Украины, впервые после отъезда из Украины дал пресс-конференцию в Ростове-на-Дону. Ключевые заявления политика — в онлайн-репортаже РИА Новости >>

Читайте также: кто вошел в новое украинское правительство и что будет с Крымом, как наказали фигурантов "болотного дела", какие российские вузы попали в черный список и многое другое — в свежем выпуске рубрики "Неделя в лицах" на ria.ru.
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Украина может не сохранить скидку на газ из-за долга и уровня оплаты

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МОСКВА, 1 мар — РИА Новости. Просроченная задолженность Украины за поставки российского газа составляет 1,549 миллиарда долларов, при таком уровне долга и оплаты страна может не сохранить действующую скидку на газ, заявил РИА Новости официальный представитель "Газпрома" Сергей Куприянов.
"У нас отношения с Украиной хорошие, транзит идет, вот только платить за газ надо… На данный момент просроченная задолженность составляет 1 миллиард 549 миллионов долларов. Задолженность огромная не только за прошлый год, но и не погашен долг за текущие поставки", — сказал он, отметив, что Россия предоставила Украине кредит в размере 3 миллиарда долларов как раз под погашение газовых долгов.
"По-видимому, с такой оплатой за газ и исполнением своих обязательств Украина может не сохранить действующую сейчас скидку на газ. Договоренности о скидке предусматривали полную и своевременную оплату поставок", — заявил Куприянов.
"Нафтогаз Украины" по состоянию на 14 февраля выплатил российскому ОАО "Газпром" 1,28 миллиарда долларов долга за поставленный в прошлом году газ и попросил об отсрочке в погашении оставшейся части долга до 15 апреля. Как сообщал 3 февраля российский холдинг, долг украинской стороны перед "Газпромом" за поставленный в 2013 году газ составлял 2,634 миллиарда долларов. Таким образом, до 15 февраля "Нафтогазу" необходимо было погасить задолженность приблизительно в 1,35 миллиарда долларов.
В 2013 году "Нафтогаз Украины" получил из России около 13 миллиардов кубов в среднем по 400 долларов за тысячу кубометров. В декабре прошлого года Украина получила от России скидку, на 2014 год установлена цена в 268,5 доллара. Тогда же договорились, что долг за 2013 год страна погасит 25 января.
Однако согласно допсоглашению между "Нафтогазом" и "Газпромом" стороны договорились определять размер скидки на 1 число первого месяца каждого квартала путем подписания дополнительного соглашения до 10 числа. В случае неподписания по любой причине соглашения в установленный срок скидка прекращает действовать. По условиям допсоглашения, к цене российского газа должен применяться коэффициент, который бы позволял Украине получать газ с 1 января 2014 года по цене в 268,5 доллара.

Как на Украине сменилась власть

Смена власти произошла на Украине в минувшие выходные. 22 февраля Верховная Рада отстранила Януковича от власти, изменила конституцию, возложила исполнение обязанностей президента на спикера Александра Турчинова и назначила президентские выборы на 25 мая. Янукович заявил, что остается законно избранным главой государства, а в стране есть все признаки государственного переворота. Москва считает, что легитимность решений Верховной рады вызывает сомнения. За развитием событий на Украине следите в хронике РИА Новости >>
Генпрокуратура Украины объявила Януковича в международный розыск. Ранее в ведомстве сообщили, что подозревают его и бывшего главу МВД Виталия Захарченко в умышленном убийстве протестующих в Киеве.
В четверг Виктор Янукович выступил с обращением к украинскому народу, в котором заявил, что вынужден просить власти РФ обеспечить ему личную безопасность от действий экстремистов. Как сообщил РИА Новости источник во властных структурах РФ, просьба Януковича была удовлетворена на территории РФ. Читайте подробнее >>
Виктор Янукович, заявивший о своей легитимности в качестве президента Украины, впервые после отъезда из Украины дал пресс-конференцию в Ростове-на-Дону. Ключевые заявления политика — в онлайн-репортаже РИА Новости >>

В каком состоянии экономика Украины

Минфин Украины заявил, что финансовая ситуация на Украине сложная, но контролируемая. В ведомстве сообщили, что рассчитывают получить в 2014-2015 годах международную финпомощь в размере около 35 миллиардов долларов. В Евросоюзе заявили, что готовы оказать Украине финансовую помощь на миллиарды евро, чтобы страна смогла избежать банкротства. Россия в конце прошлого года приняла решение вложить в еврооблигации Украины до 15 миллиардов долларов и вскоре выкупила первый транш на 3 миллиарда долларов. На фоне беспорядков на Украине размещение следующего выпуска бумаг на 2 миллиарда долларов было отложено. Как Украина уже получала кредит от МВФ в 2010 году —в справке РИА Новости >>

Как Москва оказала Киеву братскую помощь

17 декабря Владимир Путин сообщил, что правительство России решило поддержать экономику Украины и разместить в украинских ценных бумагах часть резервов из Фонда национального благосостояния (ФНБ) объемом 15 миллиардов долларов. Эта сумма сопоставима с объемом средств, выделяемых из этого фонда на российские инфраструктурные проекты. Также Россия решила снизить цену на газ для Украины до 268,5 доллара за тысячу кубометров (в среднем за три квартала 2013 года цена для Киева составляла 404 доллара за тысячу кубометров газа). Читайте подробнее >>
Первый транш облигаций на 3 миллиарда долларов уже приобретен. Позднее стало известно, что в долларах Киев получит от Москвы лишь 10 миллиардов, а остальная часть финансовой поддержки будет предоставлена в виде специальных прав заимствования (СДР).
В начале января глава российского Минфина Антон Силуанов заявил, что Россия не перечислит второй транш финансовой помощи до оплаты поставок газа. Читайте подробнее >>

Читайте также: кто вошел в новое украинское правительство и что будет с Крымом, как наказали фигурантов "болотного дела", какие российские вузы попали в черный список и многое другое — в свежем выпуске рубрики "Неделя в лицах" на ria.ru.
Read the whole story
 
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Will Ukraine's Crimea region be Europe's next 'frozen' conflict?

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Armed men patrol outside the Simferopol International Airport in Ukraine&squot;s Crimea region on Friday, February 28. The gunmen, whom Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov called part of an "armed invasion" by Russian forces, appeared around the airport without identifying themselves. Crimea is an autonomous republic of Ukraine with an ethnic Russian majority. It&squot;s the last large bastion of opposition to Ukraine&squot;s new political leadership after President Viktor Yanukovych&squot;s ouster.Armed men patrol outside the Simferopol International Airport in Ukraine's Crimea region on Friday, February 28. The gunmen, whom Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov called part of an "armed invasion" by Russian forces, appeared around the airport without identifying themselves. Crimea is an autonomous republic of Ukraine with an ethnic Russian majority. It's the last large bastion of opposition to Ukraine's new political leadership after President Viktor Yanukovych's ouster.
An image provided to CNN by a local resident shows Russian tanks on the move in Sevastopol, Ukraine.An image provided to CNN by a local resident shows Russian tanks on the move in Sevastopol, Ukraine.
Russian troops block a road February 28 toward the military airport in Sevastopol, Ukraine, on the Black Sea coast. The Russian Black Sea Fleet is based at the port city of Sevastopol. Ukraine suspects Russia of fomenting tension in the autonomous region of Crimea, which might escalate into a bid for separation by its Russian majority.Russian troops block a road February 28 toward the military airport in Sevastopol, Ukraine, on the Black Sea coast. The Russian Black Sea Fleet is based at the port city of Sevastopol. Ukraine suspects Russia of fomenting tension in the autonomous region of Crimea, which might escalate into a bid for separation by its Russian majority.
Armed men stand guard in front of a building near the Simferopol airport on February 28. Simferopol is the regional capital of Ukraine's Crimea.Armed men stand guard in front of a building near the Simferopol airport on February 28. Simferopol is the regional capital of Ukraine's Crimea.
An armed man wearing no identifying military insignia patrols outside Simferopol International Airport on February 28. An armed man wearing no identifying military insignia patrols outside Simferopol International Airport on February 28.
Police stand guard outside the Crimea regional parliament building in Simferopol on Thursday, February 27. Armed men seized the regional government administration building and parliament in Crimea. Police stand guard outside the Crimea regional parliament building in Simferopol on Thursday, February 27. Armed men seized the regional government administration building and parliament in Crimea.
Police intervene as Russian supporters gather in front of the parliament building in Simferopol on February 27.Police intervene as Russian supporters gather in front of the parliament building in Simferopol on February 27.
A man adds fuel to a fire at a barricade on Kiev's Independence Square on February 27. Dozens of people were killed last week during clashes between security forces and protesters.A man adds fuel to a fire at a barricade on Kiev's Independence Square on February 27. Dozens of people were killed last week during clashes between security forces and protesters.
Pro-Russia demonstrators wave Russian and Crimean flags in front of a local government building in Simferopol on February 27. Pro-Russia demonstrators wave Russian and Crimean flags in front of a local government building in Simferopol on February 27.
Barricades in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 27 hold a banner that reads: "Crimea Russia." There&squot;s a broad divide between those who support the pro-Western developments in Kiev and those who back Russia&squot;s continued influence in Crimea and across Ukraine.
Barricades in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 27 hold a banner that reads: "Crimea Russia." There's a broad divide between those who support the pro-Western developments in Kiev and those who back Russia's continued influence in Crimea and across Ukraine.
Protesters stand in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 27. Tensions have simmered in the Crimea region since the Ukraine president's ouster.<!-- -->
</br></br>" border="0" height="360" id="articleGalleryPhoto0011" width="640">Protesters stand in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 27. Tensions have simmered in the Crimea region since the Ukraine president's ouster. 
Protesters in support of the president's ouster rally in Kiev's Independence Square, which has been the center of opposition, on Wednesday, February 26.Protesters in support of the president's ouster rally in Kiev's Independence Square, which has been the center of opposition, on Wednesday, February 26.
Security forces stand guard during clashes between opposing sides in front of Crimea's parliament building in Simferopol on February 26.Security forces stand guard during clashes between opposing sides in front of Crimea's parliament building in Simferopol on February 26.
Pro-Russian demonstrators, right, clash with anti-Russian protesters in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 26. Pro-Russian demonstrators, right, clash with anti-Russian protesters in front of a government building in Simferopol on February 26.
A police officer gets pulled into a crowd of Crimean Tatars in Simferopol on February 26. The Tatars, an ethnic minority group deported during the Stalin era, is rallying in support of Ukraine's interim government.A police officer gets pulled into a crowd of Crimean Tatars in Simferopol on February 26. The Tatars, an ethnic minority group deported during the Stalin era, is rallying in support of Ukraine's interim government.
A man places flowers at a barricade near Kiev's Independence Square on February 26.A man places flowers at a barricade near Kiev's Independence Square on February 26.
A woman holds a photograph of a protester killed during the height of tensions on February 26 in Kiev.A woman holds a photograph of a protester killed during the height of tensions on February 26 in Kiev.
Police guard a government building in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine on February 26.Police guard a government building in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine on February 26.
Protesters remove a fence that surrounds Ukraine's parliament in Kiev on February 26.Protesters remove a fence that surrounds Ukraine's parliament in Kiev on February 26.
People sing the Ukrainian national anthem at Kiev's Independence Square on Monday, February 24.People sing the Ukrainian national anthem at Kiev's Independence Square on Monday, February 24.
Gas masks used by protesters sit next to a barricade in Independence Square on February 24.Gas masks used by protesters sit next to a barricade in Independence Square on February 24.
A woman cries February 24 near a memorial for the people killed in Kiev.A woman cries February 24 near a memorial for the people killed in Kiev.
People wave a large Ukrainian flag in Independence Square on Sunday, February 23.People wave a large Ukrainian flag in Independence Square on Sunday, February 23.
Two pro-government supporters are made to pray February 23 in front of a shrine to dead anti-government protesters.Two pro-government supporters are made to pray February 23 in front of a shrine to dead anti-government protesters.
A man and his daughter lay flowers at a memorial for protesters killed in Independence Square. A man and his daughter lay flowers at a memorial for protesters killed in Independence Square.
Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko speaks at Independence Square on Saturday, February 22, hours after being released from prison. Tymoshenko, considered a hero of a 2004 revolution against Yanukovych, was released after 2½ years behind bars.Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko speaks at Independence Square on Saturday, February 22, hours after being released from prison. Tymoshenko, considered a hero of a 2004 revolution against Yanukovych, was released after 2½ years behind bars.
Tymoshenko is greeted by supporters shortly after being freed from prison in Kharkiv on February 22.Tymoshenko is greeted by supporters shortly after being freed from prison in Kharkiv on February 22.
A protester guards the entrance to Yanukovych's abandoned residence outside Kiev on February 22. A protester guards the entrance to Yanukovych's abandoned residence outside Kiev on February 22.
Anti-government protesters guard the streets next to the presidential offices in Kiev on February 22. Anti-government protesters guard the streets next to the presidential offices in Kiev on February 22.
Anti-government protesters drive a military vehicle in Independence Square on February 22. Many protesters said they wouldn't leave the square until Yanukovych resigned.Anti-government protesters drive a military vehicle in Independence Square on February 22. Many protesters said they wouldn't leave the square until Yanukovych resigned.
Ukrainian lawmakers argue during a session of Parliament on Friday, February 21.Ukrainian lawmakers argue during a session of Parliament on Friday, February 21.
Men in Kiev carry a casket containing the body of a protester killed in clashes with police.Men in Kiev carry a casket containing the body of a protester killed in clashes with police.
Protesters cheer after news of an agreement between the opposing sides in Kiev on February 21.Protesters cheer after news of an agreement between the opposing sides in Kiev on February 21.
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STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • Armed men seize parliament building in Ukraine's Crimea region
  • Crimea is last big bastion of opposition to new government in Kiev following President's ouster
  • Tensions have simmered since President Yanukovych's overthrow last week
  • Forbrig: Ukraine must decide if it's worth risking recent progress over restive Crimea
Editor's note: Joerg Forbrig is a Berlin-based program director and Eastern Europe expert with the German Marshall Fund of the United States. The views expressed in this commentary are solely his.
(CNN) -- The world's eyes may have been focused on the breathtakingly fast political changes unfolding in Ukraine's capital Kiev this week, but it is the Crimean peninsula, where dozens of gunmen raised the Russian flag over parliament Thursday, that should now be the primary source of concern for Ukraine's fledgling government and world leaders.
Crimea is an autonomous republic whose history has long been marred by political tension. Gifted to Ukraine by Soviet Union leader Nikita Khrushchev in 1954, its population is ethnic Russian by just over half and Ukrainian by a quarter, while more than ten percent are Crimean Tatars who are fiercely anti-Russian as a result of Joseph Stalin's repression of the group a half century ago.
Joerg Forbrig
Joerg Forbrig
Russia's strategically important Black Sea naval fleet is hosted at Sevastopol, the region's largest city, an arrangement that controversially extended until 2042 by the ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was last seen fleeing Kiev. His whereabouts are unknown.
The large Russian population of Crimea has long viewed the central government of Ukraine with suspicion. In recent days the mood has turned into aggressive hostility towards the new authorities in Kiev. Crimean Russians see the newly-powerful opposition movement as illegitimate, sponsored by the West, and even fascist. Anti-Ukrainian protests are being held, Russian vigilante groups have sprung up across Crimea, Russian flags have been hoisted on government buildings, clashes have broken out between Russian separatists and loyalist Tatars and Ukrainians, and the Russian military has been seen patrolling key buildings and infrastructure.
Gunmen seize Crimean parliament
Tensions rise over Crimean peninsula
Putin call behind Yanukovych truce?
Fears of Ukraine split sparks protests
The Russian Federation has done precious little to contain this dangerous dynamic. On the contrary, its state-sponsored media have covered the unrest in Crimea extensively and reiterated the Kremlin's view of the events in Kiev as a coup d'état. Envoys from Moscow have descended on Crimea to promise Russian citizenship to all who want it and even the region's re-integration into Russia proper.
Meanwhile, Russia's foreign ministry is warning of violations of the human rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, while the Russian military is reportedly preparing lists for the evacuation of the families of seamen serving at Sevastopol. Snap military exercises have been ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin close to Ukraine's borders. In short, the Kremlin is stoking the fires of the building separatism that can be observed in Crimea, despite its official commitment to non-interference and the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
This situation bears all the hallmarks of several long-standing, often referred to as "frozen", conflicts in Eastern Europe. In Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova, in Nagorno-Karabakh, which is contested by Armenia and Azerbaijan, or in Abkhazia and South-Ossetia, which have seceded from Georgia, Russia has long propped up separatists, providing political backing, military support, funding and passports. This undermines the stability of its smaller neighbors, challenges those nations' sovereignty, blocks domestic reforms, and impedes European integration.
By underwriting Crimean separatism, Russia is taking the first steps toward repeating such a scenario in Ukraine. So while many in Kiev and in Western capitals are pondering what Russia will do next, the the Kremlin has already made its decision.
Russia's choice of tactics is no coincidence. Rather, it is based on a sober analysis of the post-Euro-Maidan situation in Ukraine, particularly Kiev, and of Russia's limited leverage there. The hoped-for public mayhem and political stalemate have not materialized. Western acceptance of the new government thwarts Russian claims of its illegitimacy. The country's industrial east shows little inclination to move closer to Russia, and Western financial aid is shaping up to reduce Ukraine's dependency on money from Moscow. In this constellation, Crimea is the "weakest link" in Ukraine today.
This leaves the new Ukrainian government with a very difficult choice. It is obliged by the constitution to defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine, to re-establish public order in Crimea, and to guarantee the safety of its citizens there, irrespective of their ethnic background. However, the central government is only just regaining control over the situation, and faces enormous political, economic and social challenges. Its resources are already stretched without having to deal with a strong separatist movement and its even stronger external backer. What is more, Europe and the U.S. will be of very limited help in confronting Crimean separatists and their Russian masters.
Ukraine's choice, then, is between consolidating the gains of the Euro-Maidan revolution across most of the country, and risking it all to maintain control over a historically reticent part of Ukraine that may already be lost. The question that has to be answered now is whether Crimea is a price worth paying for getting Ukraine on track for democracy and European integration.
The views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Joerg Forbrig.
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Masked Forces at 2 Airports in Crimea; Russia Disavows Move

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SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine — Armed men of uncertain allegiance took up positions at two airports here in Ukraine’s Crimean region on Friday, fueling concerns about possible Russian military intervention or a separatist rebellion in a region with stronger historical ties to Russia than to Ukraine’s central government in Kiev.

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