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Крым может стать не столько триумфом исторической справедливости и российского неоимпериализма, как уверены в Госдуме, где в пятницу овацией встретили делегацию из крымского парламента, сколько точкой выпадения России из мировой политики. В некотором смысле не Россия присоединяет Крым, а Крым — Россию.
Из трех основных вариантов решения судьбы полуострова — присоединения к России, квазинезависимого государства по типу Южной Осетии и сохранения в составе Украины на условиях конфедерации по конституции 1992 года — для России относительно выгоден лишь последний.
Крым в любом случае окажется на содержании российских налогоплательщиков. Но мера ответственности и глубина политических последствий для России — очень разные.
6 марта крымский парламент принял решение о вхождении автономии в состав России и обратился с соответствующей просьбой к руководству РФ. Одновременно парламентарии в третий раз перенесли сроки референдума по вопросу о статусе полуострова: сначала плебисцит планировался на 25 мая вместе с внеочередными выборами президента Украины, затем на 30 марта, теперь на 16 марта.
На референдум будут вынесены два вопроса: 1) Вы за воссоединение Крыма с Россией на правах субъекта Российской Федерации? 2) Вы за восстановление действия конституции Республики Крым 1992 года и за статус Крыма как части Украины?
Владимир Путин сразу же провел заседание Совета безопасности РФ по ситуации в Крыму, но ответа на решение крымского парламента не дал. После чего российские и крымские власти «разошлись в показаниях» относительно последовательности дальнейших действий.
Крымский парламент принял решение о вхождении автономии в состав России с расчетом на то, что Россия проведет соответствующие процедуры, сообщил спикер Верховного совета автономной республики Владимир Константинов. «Если они примут решение о начале процедуры, тогда будем рассматривать этот вопрос на референдуме», — сказал Константинов.
То есть крымские парламентарии решили получить ответ от России до волеизъявления самих крымчан, чтобы придать первому вопросу референдума больший вес. Однако российская власть, похоже, решила соблюсти формальные приличия и оставить себе хоть какое-то пространство для дипломатических маневров. По словам главы комитета Госдумы по делам СНГ Леонида Слуцкого, Дума рассмотрит вопрос об упрощенном порядке присоединения к России новых территорий после того, как на Украине пройдет референдум о статусе Крыма.
В конце концов, Южная Осетия еще до войны с Грузией тоже просилась в состав России, но ее не приняли. И после войны Россия тоже не стала присоединять эту территорию, лишь признав ее в качестве независимого государства. При этом, с точки зрения финансирования, ситуация принципиально не изменилась: Россия как содержала, так и содержит Южную Осетию фактически как свой регион. И пока нет шансов на ее самостоятельное развитие.
Парламент Крыма, естественно, пытаясь «ковать железо, пока горячо», поставил Путина перед крайне неприятным выбором. Если 16 марта Крым проголосует за присоединение к РФ и Россия с этим согласится, нас ждет полноценная «холодная война».
Украина и Грузия с большой долей вероятности окажутся в НАТО. Это станет концом всех интеграционных проектов в СНГ, так как Россия впервые в постсоветской истории заберет чужую территорию — Крым все-таки в состав России до ввода туда российских войск входить не собирался. Теперь уж точно ни одна страна на постсоветском пространстве не сможет чувствовать себя спокойно в отношениях с Москвой и будет искать более надежных союзников, способных гарантировать бывшим советским республикам суверенитет.
Это новые громадные финансовые обязательства и без того хиреющей российской экономики. Это неизбежные санкции, которые затронут не только чиновников, но и рядовых россиян. Это неизбежное ухудшение жизни российских граждан. Это окончательное превращение России в страну, которая не сможет быть посредником в решении локальных международных конфликтов — ей просто больше не будут доверять.
Россия могла бы настоятельно посоветовать Крыму проголосовать за расширенную автономию в составе Украины (в идеале вообще надо было дождаться выборов украинской власти и сделать так, чтобы именно новая украинская легитимная власть вернула Крыму права широкой автономии).
Но Путин может воспринять это как слабость. Ведь единственный смысл войны с Украиной в сознании той части россиян, которые ее поддерживают, — именно возвращение Крыма.
Третий вариант — фактический выход Крыма из подчинения Украине и превращение в формально независимое государство. Для России он мало чем отличается от присоединения этой территории. Никто в мире, кроме России и пары-тройки других стран, такое государство не признает.
При этом Крым России придется содержать в любом случае. И крымские власти уже выражают полную готовность «сесть на шею».
Крым готов принять российский рубль в качестве национальной валюты в рамках плана по присоединению к Российской Федерации, заявил первый вице-премьер Крыма Рустам Темиргалиева. Он также заявил, что «все украинские государственные предприятия будут национализированы и станут собственностью крымской автономии». Вряд ли кто-нибудь, кроме России, будет вести дела с этими конфискованными предприятиями.
Тактически российское общество может принять это за большую победу России и лично президента Путина. Но с учетом трендов в российской экономике и политических последствий такого решения очень скоро мы неизбежно почувствуем, как дорого обходятся гражданам имперские амбиции, не подкрепленные соответствующими экономическими возможностями.
Собственно, Россия движется по траектории, которая привела к распаду СССР, когда экономический крах сделал невозможным удержание в зоне контроля центральной власти столь гигантских территорий.
Вместо того чтобы совместно со странами Запада учредить новые механизмы мирового порядка, Россия может оказаться страной-изгоем с безнадежными (до радикальной смены внешней и внутренней политики) экономическими перспективами. А на то, чтобы Крым жил принципиально лучше, чем в составе Украины, у нас просто не хватит денег.
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The Independent, U.K.
Annexing Crimea 'Too Costly for Russia to Bear' (Gazeta, Russia)
"The inevitable sanctions will impact not only officials but ordinary Russians. This will result in the inexorable deterioration of the lives of Russian citizens and the final transformation of Russia into a country that cannot be a mediator for resolving international or local conflicts. It will simply no longer be trusted. ... Russia is moving along the path that led to the collapse of USSR, when an economic crash made it impossible for it to maintain its sphere of influence as the central authority over such a gigantic territory. ... Permitting Crimea to live fundamentally better than it would have as a part of Ukraine is something we simply cannot afford."
EDITORIAL
Translated By Egija Mierkalne
March 10, 2014
Crimea may not turn out as a "triumph of historical justice and Russian neo-imperialism," as has been said in the State Duma. A delegation from the Crimean Parliament may have been greeted with ovations on Friday, but the question may well come down to how many geopolitical points Russia loses. In a sense, Russia hasn't annexed Crimea, but Crimea - Russia.
Of the three main options for deciding the fate of the peninsula - annexation by Russia; becoming a quasi-independent state like South Ossetia, or remaining part of Ukraine under the terms of the 1992 Confederation Constitution - only the last would be relatively advantageous to Russia.
In all cases, Crimea would be backed by the Russian taxpayer. A measure of political responsibility for Russia is one thing, and becoming ensconced in profound political consequences another.
On March 6, the Crimean Parliament voted to become an autonomous part of Russia, and has submitted a request to Russian leaders. At the same time, the lawmakers rescheduled a referendum on the peninsula's status. A plebiscite was first planned to coincide with early presidential elections on May 25, then on March 30, and now on March 16.
The referendum will ask the two following questions: 1) Are you in favor of Crimea becoming a constituent territory of the Russian Federation? 2) Are you in favor of restoring Crimea’s 1992 constitution and for keeping its status as part of Ukraine?
Vladimir Putin immediately held a Security Council meeting on the situation in Crimea, but didn't respond to the Crimean parliament's decision. Russian and Crimean authorities later gave differing accounts of the sequence of events.
Speaker Vladimir Konstantinov said that the Crimean Parliament had decided to become an autonomous territory of Russia, with the expectation that Russia would follow through on the relevant procedures. "If they want to begin the process, then we will include the question in the referendum,"Konstantinov said.
In other words, before seeking the views of Crimeans themselves and in order to give the first question on the referendum more significance, the Crimean Parliament decided to first sound out Moscow. However, the Russian government seems to have decided to follow formal procedure and leave itself room for diplomatic maneuver. According to Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the State DumaCommittee on the Commonwealth of Independent States, after the referendum in Ukraine on the status of Crimea, the Duma will consider shortening the procedure under which new territories can become part of Russia.
Before the war with Georgia, South Ossetia begged for inclusion into Russia, but it was ultimately rejected. Nor did Russia annex South Ossetia after the war, only recognizing it as an independent state. At the same time, in terms of funding, the situation hasn't changed: as Russia has said, it will continue to maintain South Ossetia as part of its sphere of influence with no chance of it developing independently.
Of course, the Crimea Parliament is trying to “strike while the iron is hot,” but this has given Putin a very unpleasant choice. If Crimea votes in favor of annexation by the Russian Federation on March 16, and Russia agrees, we will be facing a fully-fledged Cold War.
Ukraine and Georgia will more likely find themselves in NATO. That would bring to an end the entire project of integrating the Commonwealth of Independent States, as Russia, for the first time in post-Soviet history, takes someone else's territory - since Crimea didn't intend to become part of Russia until Russian troops entered. Now no former Soviet republic will feel secure in relation to Moscow, and will be on the lookout for allies that can more reliably ensure their sovereignty.
These enormous new financial obligations will be hard for the already-strapped Russian economy to bear. The inevitable sanctions will impact not only officials but ordinary Russians. This will result in the inexorable deterioration of the lives of Russian citizens, and the final transformation of Russia into a country that cannot be a mediator for resolving international or local conflicts. It will simply no longer be trusted.
Russia could have more persistently advised Crimea to vote for greater autonomy within Ukraine (ideally, all it had to do was wait for the election of Ukrainian authorities and make sure that the legitimate government returned the right to broad autonomy to Crimea).
However, Putin might have perceived that as a weakness. After all, the only meaning of war with Ukraine in the minds of Russians who support it is precisely the return of Crimea.
Then there is the third option, remaining part of Ukraine under the terms of the 1992 Confederation Constitution, which means the actual departure of Crimea from obedience to Kiev and formal independence for Ukraine as an independent state. For Russia, this hardly differs from Crimean annexation. Everyone on earth, except for Russia and two or three other countries already recognizes this.
From now on, Crimea will be Russian anyway - and the Crimean authorities have already expressed their complete willingness to do so stand on our shoulders.
Rustam Temirgaliev, Deputy Chairman of Crimea's Council of Ministers, says Crimea is ready to make the ruble its national currency under plans for annexation by the Russian Federation. He also said that "all Ukrainian state-owned enterprises will be nationalized and become the property of an autonomous Crimea." Hardly anyone except Russia would do business with these confiscated enterprises.
Posted By Worldmeets.US
Tactically, Russian society can take this as a great victory for Russia, and for President Putin personally. However, given the trends in the Russian economy and the political consequences of such decisions, we will very quickly and inevitably feel like citizens diminished by costly imperial ambitions and deprived of subsequent economic opportunities.
In fact, Russia is moving along the path that led to the collapse of USSR, when an economic crash made it impossible for it to maintain its sphere of influence as the central authority over such a gigantic territory.
Instead of working with Western countries to establish new mechanisms for world order, Russia may end up a pariah with hopeless economic prospects (without a radical change in foreign and domestic policy). Permitting Crimea to live fundamentally better than it would have as a part of Ukraine is something we simply cannot afford.
SEE ALSO ON THIS:
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Russia Today, Russia: VIDEOS: Roundup of Russian Reaction from Russia Today
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Moskovskii Komsomolets, Russia: Report: U.S. to Help 'Oust' Black Sea Fleet from Crimea
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Yezhednevniy Zhurnal, Russia: Ossified Kremlin Misreads Biden Visit to Georgia, Ukraine
Rceczpospolita, Poland: Banish All 'Magical Thinking' Regarding the Russian Bear
Kommersant, Russia: The Kremlin Offers 'an Ultimatum' to America
Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland: 'Enormous Error' of Bush's 'Georgian Protege'
Cotidianul, Romania: Georgia Can 'Kiss NATO Goodbye'
Financial Times Deutschland, Germany: Before Georgia - It is Europe that Needs Mediation
Rue 89, France: East Europe Best Not Depend on 'Obsolete' NATO
Liberation, France: Russian President 'Dictates His Peace' to Hapless Europe
Le Figaro, France: Between America and Russia, the E.U. is On the Front Line
Le Figaro, France: War in the Caucasus: Georgia 'Doesn’t Stand a Chance'
Le Figaro, France: A Way Out of the Georgia Crisis for Russia and the West
Le Figaro, France: A Way Out of the Georgia Crisis for Russia and the West
Frankfurter Rundschau, Germany: Did Russia 'Win' the Georgia Crisis? Not By a Long Shot
Cotidianul, Romania: Georgia Can 'Kiss NATO Goodbye'
Financial Times Deutschland, Germany: Before Georgia - It is Europe that Needs Mediation
Rue 89, France: East Europe Best Not Depend on 'Obsolete' NATO
Liberation, France: Russian President 'Dictates His Peace' to Hapless Europe
Le Figaro, France: Between America and Russia, the E.U. is On the Front Line
Le Figaro, France: War in the Caucasus: Georgia 'Doesn’t Stand a Chance'
Le Figaro, France: A Way Out of the Georgia Crisis for Russia and the West
Le Figaro, France: A Way Out of the Georgia Crisis for Russia and the West
Frankfurter Rundschau, Germany: Did Russia 'Win' the Georgia Crisis? Not By a Long Shot
Posted By Worldmeets.US Mar. 10, 2014, 4:43am
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На территорию автомобильного батальона в Бахчисарае проникли неизвестные вооруженные люди
В 13:45 в Бахчисарае вооруженные люди начали захватывать воинскую часть А-2904. Об этом Украинской правде сообщил заместитель командира другой украинской части в Бахчисарае Владимир Докучаев, со ссылкой на военных части.
"К части подъехали вооруженные люди и по состоянию на сейчас захватывают ее", - сообщил он.
"Это вся информация, которую мы имеем", - добавил он.
Позже глава медиа-центра Минобороны Крыма Владислав Селезнев сообщил со ссылкой на источники, что на территорию автомобильного батальона в Бахчисарае проникли неизвестные вооруженные.
"Их около 10 человек прибыли под военную часть на двух микроавтобусах. Кто они - пока не известно", - отметил он.
Напомним, вчера командира именно этой части Владимира Садовника похитили неизвестные пророссийски настроенные люди. В понедельник он вышел на связь с женой, но до сих пор находится в плену.
Thomas Peter / ReutersThe West is taking action against those involved in the Russian military intervention into Crimea.
BRUSSELS — NATO urged Russia on Thursday to call back to bases its forces on the Ukrainian Crimea peninsula, saying it stood by Ukraine's territorial integrity in the face of the greatest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War.
The warning came on the heels of a flurry of activity, including a U.S. announcement of a travel ban and discussions with China, EU comments about ending talks on visa-free travel for Russians, counter criticisms by the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry and a Russian Government Security Council meeting chaired by President Vladimir Putin.
In the NATO statement Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said, "Ukraine is a valued and long-standing partner for NATO. In these difficult moments NATO stands by Ukraine, NATO stands by Ukraine's sovereignty, integrity and by the fundamental principles of international law."
The crisis in Ukraine escalated on Thursday after the parliament in Crimea, which has effectively been seized by Russian forces, voted to join Russia.
"This crisis is not just about Ukraine, this crisis has serious implications for the security and stability of the Euro-Atlantic area as a whole. We clearly face the gravest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War," Rasmussen said.
"Above all we call on Russia to step up its international commitments and halt the military escalation in Crimea. We call on Russia to withdraw its forces to their bases and to refrain from any interference elsewhere in Ukraine," he said.
Meanwhile, the White House said it was able to secure Chinese agreement about Ukraine's territorial integrity. China agrees with the United States that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine must be respected in its dispute with Russia, the White House said in statement after top-level contacts between the two countries.
In comments posted on its website, China's Foreign Ministry said that State Councilor Yang Jiechi had urged all sides to exercise restraint and said the crisis must be resolved through political and diplomatic means.
The legitimate rights and interests of all ethnic groups in Ukraine must be taken into account, added Yang, who spoke to President Barack Obama's national security adviser, Susan Rice.
China is treading a cautious path in the Ukraine dispute, withholding criticism of strategic partner Russia while adhering to its traditional policy of not interfering in the affairs of other countries.
The U.S. has engaged in global diplomatic efforts to gather opposition against Russia's deployment of troops in the Crimea region of southern Ukraine.
Obama spoke earlier to British Prime Minister David Cameron as Washington sought to mount pressure on Europe.
Vice President Joe Biden talked by phone with Latvian President Andris Berzins to underscore the U.S.' commitment to peace and security in the Baltic region.
But U.S. and Russian diplomats have been unable to find a common language. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Thursday there was no agreement as yet between Moscow and Washington over the crisis in Ukraine, Interfax news agency reported.
"For now we cannot tell the international community that we have an agreement," Lavrov was quoted as saying after meeting his U.S. counterpart, Secretary of State John Kerry, in Rome.
Russia on Thursday dismissed as "primitive distortion of reality," cynicism and double standards a U.S. Department of State fact sheet that dismissed Putin's comments on the crisis in Ukraine as "false claims."
"It is clear that in Washington, as before, they are unable to accept a situation developing not according to their templates," Alexander Lukashevich, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, said in a statement.
In Washington President Barack Obama on Thursday ordered the freezing of U.S. assets and a ban on travel into the U.S. of those involved in the Russian military intervention into Crimea.
Obama signed an executive order aimed at punishing those Russians and Ukrainians responsible for a Russian move into Crimea.
The order, the White House said in a statement, is "a flexible tool that will allow us to sanction those who are most directly involved in destabilizing Ukraine, including the military intervention in Crimea, and does not preclude further steps should the situation deteriorate."
In addition, the State Department is putting in place visa bans on a number of officials and individuals responsible for or complicit in threatening the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Putin is not among those targeted under U.S. sanctions announced in response to Russia's incursion into Ukraine, a senior Obama administration official said Thursday.
"It is an unusual and extraordinary circumstance to sanction a head of state, and we would not begin our designations by doing so," the official said.
The order was announced as Kerry and Lavrov began their meeting.
A senior State Department official said the U.S. had informed the Europeans beforehand about the sanctions.
The U.S. wants Russian troops to return to their bases in Crimea and for Moscow to allow international monitors into the region to ensure the rights of ethnic Russians there are protected.
"We call on Russia to take the opportunity before it to resolve this crisis through direct and immediate dialogue with the government of Ukraine," the White House said.
The Obama order targets any assets held in the U.S. by "individuals and entities" responsible for the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, threatening its territorial integrity or seeking to assert governmental authority over any part of Ukraine without authorization from the Ukrainian government in Kiev.
The White House also said it is prepared to consider additional steps and sanctions as necessary.
In Moscow, Putin discussed Ukraine, including the Crimean parliament's appeal to let the region join Russia, at a meeting of his Security Council on Thursday, his spokesman said, RIA Novosti reported.
European Union leaders meeting in Brussels on Thursday to discuss the situation upped the ante by saying they were considering freezing talks with Russia on a visa-free regime — something Moscow has demanded for some time.
The Foreign Ministry said such moves were "politicized, unconstructive and ungrounded" and expressed hope it would not happen.
"We still hope that at the end of the day our partners will not go for such a move," the ministry's spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said in a statement.
The USS Truxtun, a U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer, is heading to the Black Sea for what the U.S. military on Thursday described as a "routine" deployment that was scheduled well before the crisis in Ukraine.
The announcement came a day after the Pentagon unveiled plans to put more U.S. fighter jets on a NATO air patrol mission in the Baltics, moving to reassure allies alarmed by Russia's effective seizure of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea.
Crimea is home to Russia's Black Sea military base in Sevastopol.
The U.S. Navy said in a statement that the Truxtun left Greece on Thursday en route to the Black Sea and would conduct training with Romanian and Bulgarian naval forces.
"While in the Black Sea, the ship will conduct a port visit and routine, previously planned exercises with allies and partners in the region," the Navy said in a statement, without offering additional details.
"Truxtun's operations in the Black Sea were scheduled well in advance of her departure from the U.S."
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The U.S. also agreed to send four F-15 jets to Lithuania. Lithuania’s defense ministry said it was in response to “Russian aggression in Ukraine and increased military activity in Kaliningrad.” Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave oblast (province) that borders both Lithuania and Poland, which means it stands on its own outside Russia’s border.
The move comes after Poland and Lithuania each requested a NATO consultation to discuss the Russian aggression according to Article 4 in the NATO charter, which stipulates that “the Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.”
The Baltic states and Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad can be seen in the lower left of the map, labeled "Russia" Via jimmyharris on Flickr
Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered live-fire tactical exercises in the region to check the combat readiness of the troops there. According to Polish General Marek Dukaczewski, Russia did not warn neighboring countries about the exercise or invite international observers, both standard practices before launching combat-readiness drills.
Poland has 48 F-16 fighters but the Baltic states -- Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania -- look to NATO for serious defense capabilities. There is a U.S. Air Force presence in the Baltic states because of NATO air-patrol responsibilities, which rotate in four-month intervals between member states. The U.S. is responsible for Baltic patrols until the end of April.
The U.S. currently has 10 or so airmen in Poland that support military training. Now, 300 men will head to Poland to support the 12 F-16s. Fellow NATO member state Turkey has twice scrambled jets last week in response to Russian planes found flying along its Black Sea coast.
Like Ukraine, the Baltic states share a long and complicated history with Russia. All three were annexed by the Soviet Union in 1940 and gained independence in 1991 shortly before the fall of the Soviet Union.
They too find themselves having to choose between leaning toward the West and Russia. The only gas supplier to the Baltic states is Russia, and officials say that Moscow-based Gazprom charges Baltic states more than it does anyone else.
However, Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite has said Russia is dangerous these days, and she believes Russia won’t stop at the Crimea.
“With smaller countries, it’s either total obedience or you’re an enemy,” Grybauskaite said, adding that “there is no desire to recognize others as equals, but rather various means are used to pressure other countries, economically and politically.”
Meanwhile, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed the sudden inspection of 150,000 or so troops across western Russia were not related to the events in the Ukraine, even though some were undertaken just beyond the Ukrainian border.
The decision to send more U.S. forces to the Baltic states is so far the most forward move made by the U.S., which has also considered the idea of economic sanctions against its former Cold War rival, in relation to the Ukraine crisis.
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Had the U.S. been so foolish as to bring Ukraine into NATO Washington would have a treaty responsibility to start World War III. Today’s game of geopolitical chicken might have a nuclear end.
Maybe Kiev’s inclusion would have caused Vladimir Putin to go quietly into the night after the violent overthrow of a friendly government in a strategic neighbor. More likely he’d doubt the West would risk war over tangential security interests.
In fact, Washington and the Europeans refused to do so in 2008 after their quasi-ally Georgia opened fire on Russian forces, triggering a short, but for Tbilisi disastrous, conflict. It was one thing for President George W. Bush to fete the Georgian president as a democratic friend. It was quite another to lend him America’s military for use against Moscow. The U.S. stayed out.
Still, the West cannot easily ignore Russia’s Crimean takeover. Although Moscow used troops legally based in the region, the move was an act of aggression and war against Kiev. Yet a majority of Crimean residents may welcome the move. Ukraine long has been divided along ethnic, cultural, and linguistic lines, with pro-Russian sentiment increasing the further one goes to the east. It is highest in Crimea. In fact, that region only ended up in Ukraine in 1954 when then Soviet Communist Party General Secretary Nikita Krushchev, from Ukraine, shifted it administratively.
Although secessionist sentiment has been largely dormant of late, the Western-supported putsch/street revolution, led by armed nationalists, against President Viktor Yanukovich inflamed pro-Russian passions in eastern Ukraine. While he was revealed to be an ostentatious crook, he was elected in a free election with overwhelming support from Russophiles. His replacement led the chief opposition party whose candidate, Yulia Tymoshenko, was defeated by Yanukovich in 2010. She apparently is in effective control of the new government, which includes cabinet ministers from the neo-fascist Svoboda Party. One of the first acts of the reconstituted parliament—cleansed of many elected members from the former ruling party—was eliminating legal protection for the use of the Russian language.
Moscow intervened for its own ends, including to secure its naval base at Sevastopol and reinforce its influence in the country, rather than to affirm minority rights or promote Crimean self-determination. Nevertheless, why shouldn’t Crimeans join Russia if they desire? The provincial legislature has called for union with Russia and scheduled a referendum on March 16.
The new leaders in Kiev, who took power by seizing the capital and threatening the elected president, denounced the move as unconstitutional. Western governments, which 15 years ago launched an aggressive war to dismember Serbia, called the plan illegal. Three years after intervening to oust Libya’s recognized government NATO members are proclaiming international borders to be inviolate.
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Of course, Russia’s now dominant role in Crimea raises serious doubts about the fairness of the planned referendum. However, the Ukrainian government would prevent any vote. Independence from the Soviet Union is fine. Independence from Ukraine is not. Everyone believes in self-determination, except when they don’t.
Still, despite its flagrant hypocrisy, Washington rightly affirms the Westphalian compact of 1648, which helped keep the peace for centuries. Putin is not only wrong, but dangerously wrong. Using military force to break up sovereign states, however artificial, is bad business. One over-eager soldier or over-angry demonstrator in Crimea could trigger war.
But how to punish Moscow? Republican Party hawks like John McCain are attempting to score political points against President Barack Obama even though President George W. Bush did similarly little in response to Russia’s war with Georgia. What do McCain and other blusterers propose? Military roll-back? Imagine the reaction of the American people.
Despite the super-heated rhetoric coming out of Washington, America’s direct stake in the controversy is essentially nil. Putin is a garden-variety authoritarian, not another Adolf Hitler. The former’s ambitions appear bounded, focused on border security and international respect, not global conquest and ideological domination. Moreover, Russia—with a weak economy dependent on energy revenues and badly managed military in desperate need of reform—is no Nazi Germany, the most populous, industrialized, and militarized nation then on the continent. Nor is Ukraine a new Czechoslovakia, the prelude to continent-wide aggression. Trying to forcibly swallow just Ukraine’s 46 million, nearly one-third of Russia’s population, would choke Moscow.
Since whatever happens between Russia and Ukraine poses little threat to Americans, military retaliation is inconceivable, especially after the U.S. managed to avoid shooting at the Soviets during the Cold War. Risking conflict with a nuclear-armed power is not for the faint-hearted. Although America has the better armed forces, Russia has the more serious geopolitical interests. Moscow’s ties to Ukraine are many and deep. For Washington Kiev’s orientation is but a geopolitical preference.
The administration has added fighter patrols in Europe and others have proposed sending the Sixth Fleet into the Black Sea. However, absent plans to strafe Russian villages and seize Sevastopol, what’s the point? Former White House aides Stephen J. Hadley and Damon Wilson advocated “deploying and exercising NATO forces in Poland, the Baltic states, and Romania.” That would only reinforce Moscow’s determination to prevent Ukraine from becoming a similar advance base for the U.S. military.
Zbigniew Brzezinski urged putting NATO troops on alert and readying U.S. airborne forces for deployment in Europe, even though Europe is not under attack and will not be attacked. He also advocated “immediate and direct aid so as to enhance” the Ukrainian military’s “defensive capabilities,” which would give the West responsibility without control, and raise Kiev’s expectations of actual military assistance.
John Bolton suggested putting “both Georgia and Ukraine on a clear path to NATO membership.” The alliance, he argued, was “the only way to give hope to Ukrainians who want to prevent being pulled back into Moscow’s orbit.” Yet Americans traditionally viewed alliances as a means to increasetheir security, not to ease other nations’ fears. Expanding NATO would decrease U.S. security by increasing the potential for needless confrontation and war.
Ukraine matters more to Europe, but mostly for economic rather than security reasons. In fact, the November demonstrations in Kiev were triggered by Yanukovich’s decision to place on hold an economic association agreement with the European Union. However, EU membership was not in the offing. And Kiev’s financial and political difficulties greatly limit its economic potential.
Ukraine matters more to Europe, but mostly for economic rather than security reasons. In fact, the November demonstrations in Kiev were triggered by Yanukovich’s decision to place on hold an economic association agreement with the European Union. However, EU membership was not in the offing. And Kiev’s financial and political difficulties greatly limit its economic potential.
The Europeans don’t have much of a military option because they don’t have much of a military. Since the formation of NATO the continent has largely left its security in America’s hands. Today Europe collectively outspends Russia on defense, but most European nations lack much capacity to fight. NATO’s European members even ran out of missiles three years ago when they battled Libya’s Moammar Ghaddafi. As a percentage of GDP defense outlays run an anemic 1.7 percent continent-wide. Despite constant exhortations from Washington to do more, almost all European states, even Britain and France, with the continent’s most capable armed forces, are cutting back.
About the only exception to this trend is Poland, which called for emergency NATO “consultations” to discuss what it termed “a threat to neighboring allied countries.” Members came out of that meeting asserting that they stood “together in the spirit of strong solidarity.” But no one proposed taking military action against Russia.
Which leaves economic and diplomatic sanctions for both America and Europe. Alas, many measures would have but minimal impact on Moscow: imposing individual visa bans and asset freezes, expelling Moscow from the G-8, embargoing arms, and terminating economic negotiations and military cooperation aren’t likely to make Putin flinch. More serious would be sanctioning Russian banks, restricting energy sales, and embargoing trade. In contrast to the Cold War, Russia now is integrated in the international economy and vulnerable to outside pressure.
However, with European economies intertwined with that of Russia and heavily dependent on Russian natural gas—Moscow provides about one-third of the continent’s supply—enthusiasm in Europe for doing anything serious drops the farther one moves from Russia. Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands are particularly reluctant to act. So far the Europeans have threatened to do something—most likely asset freezes and visa bans—if Russia doesn’t agree to talk to Ukraine about Crimea. That is not likely to frighten the Kremlin into a precipitous withdrawal.
Moscow also could retaliate by, for instance, freezing the assets of Western businesses. Major U.S. companies have billions of dollars in investment and trade at stake. Moreover, Russia could damage significant allied interests elsewhere, impeding logistical support for Afghanistan and buttressing Iran in negotiations over its nuclear program, for instance. For this reason even the Pentagon warned against precipitous action.
Some European leaders appear inclined to just toss a few billion Euros at Ukraine and give up. However, essentially bankrupt Kiev is no great prize. In fact, Europe may rue taking on a large and desperate dependent, especially since any aid now will be largely unconditional rather than tied to serious reforms. In the subsidy game, at least, Washington so far is only a bit player, offering $1 billion in loan guarantees.
The best answer for the Crimean crisis is a negotiated climb-down, where Russia pulls back its forces, Kiev addresses those disenfranchised by Yanukovich’s ouster, Crimea delays its referendum, Ukraine accepts a secession vote, Europe respects the result, Washington stops meddling in Kiev’s politics, and everyone disavows any intention of bringing Ukraine into NATO. Kiev would not be pressed to choose between east and west, but could look to both economically. Moscow would accept expanded European economic ties without allied defense commitments to its southern neighbor and the U.S. would eschew playing a new Great Game against Russia along its border.
If Moscow forges ahead anyway, the allies should play a long game—employ limited economic sanctions to maximize pain for business elites and sustained diplomatic pressure to intensify isolation for political elites, while avoiding a new cold war. The Putin government should pay a continuing price that would constrain its actions and encourage its transformation. However, the U.S. should act only in cooperation with Europe, since there is no gain to unilaterally penalizing American business.
In either case, the Russian takeover of Crimea should clarify allied policy towards Russia: it is not like the democratic states with which it consorts in the G8. Moscow looks at the world fundamentally differently than do Brussels and Washington. Putin cares not at all for liberal sensibilities and rejects claims of Washington’s omniscience.
The West must deal with Moscow as it is, taking what Philip Stevens of the Financial Times called “a transactional approach.” Work with Russia when possible and against it when necessary. Press for an independent Ukraine economically linked east and west but not militarily tied to the West. Cooperate to negotiate away an Iranian nuclear bomb, encourage a stable Afghanistan after America’s withdrawal, find a modus Vivendi for Syria that stops the fighting if not unifies the country, and press North Korea more strongly to moderate and reform.
Finally, over the longer-term, Washington should force Europe to take over responsibility for its own defense. Last month Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel complained that European military outlays were “not sustainable. Our alliance can endure only as long as we are willing to fight for it, and invest in it.” But the Europeans have little reason to so do so as long as America guarantees their security.
Indeed, in early March the administration undertook what Secretary of State John Kerry termed “concrete steps to reassure our NATO allies.” Former undersecretary of state Nicholas Burns called for an emergency NATO meeting “to reassure, in particular, the 10 new members from central Europe.”
Actually, Washington should adopt the opposite strategy. Making the Europeans confident in their weakness encourages European governments to continue shrinking their armed forces. America’s friends need to be discomfited greatly. They should understand that if they are not willing to defend themselves, no one else will do so. Britain and France each spend less than a tenth as much as America. Warsaw, which makes much of its increasing defense budget, still devotes less than two percent of GDP to the military, less than half the share for both America and Russia.
At the same time, Washington should rethink nonproliferation policy. It’s too late in Ukraine, but Kiev gave up Soviet nuclear weapons left on its soil in return for paper border guarantees. Possession of even a handful of nuclear-tipped missiles would have changed Moscow’s risk calculations. No one would be debating the possibility of a full-scale Russian invasion.
Russia’s aggressive takeover of the Crimea challenges Europe more than America. Yet the Europeans oppose meaningful economic sanctions while shrinking militaries tasked with deterring Russian adventurism. Whatever the resolution of the immediate crisis, That would offer at least one silver lining to yet another potential conflict without end.
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Страны НАТО проведут морские учения близ украинской границы
Завтра, 10 марта, военно-морские силы США, Румынии и Болгарии начнут проведение морских учений в северо-западной части Черного моря.
Об этом сообщает руководитель Центра военно-политических исследований Дмитрий Тымчук.
По его данным, учения пройдут в непосредственной близости от территориальных вод Украины.
Кроме того, по его информации, нынешняя передислокация к материковой части Украины флагмана Черноморского флота РФ ракетного крейсера "Москва" призвана усилить панику среди населения, а также "продемонстрировать российское военное присутствие близ района учений".
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10 марта 2014, 13:30
Сегодня, 10 марта, около 20 агрессивно настроенных представителей «народной самообороны Крыма» захватили территорию военного госпиталя в Симферополе.
Об этом сообщает пресс-служба Министерства обороны.
«Начальника Симферопольского военного госпиталя неизвестные вывели за территорию медицинского учреждения и не допускают на рабочее место. Командование и весь медицинский персонал заблокированы в помещении клуба», - отмечается в сообщении.
Также известно, что военных врачей не допускают к пациентам, которым необходима медицинская помощь – сейчас в госпитале находятся более 20 тяжелобольных.
Напомним, что вечером 8 марта на административной границе с АР Крым российские солдатыоткрыли огонь по украинскому пограничному самолету.
В ночь на 8 марта российские военнослужащие штурмом захватили отделение пограничной службы «Щелкино».
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В последние дни к границам Украины прибывают силы армии США: в Черное море вошел американские эсминец, а в Польшу на учения прибывают истребители
Во вторник Военно-морские силы США, Румынии и Болгарии начнут маневры в Черном море, вблизи территориальных вод с Украиной. Об этом сообщил Дмитрий Тымчук, руководитель Центра военно-политических исследований, который ныне активно освещает события в Крыму.
"Надеюсь, смысла этих учений никому объяснять не надо", - отметил Тымчук. Он также уточнил, что поближе к району предстоящих учений россияне уже отправили свои корабли: "Россияне сразу погнали ближе к району учений свой крейсер "Москва".
"Но у тех ребят за углом, на всякий случай, - авианосная группа с "Джоржем Бушем", способна за два часа превратить все места базирования ЧФ в полигоны отходов. Так что российская клоунада с крейсером "Москва" - это понты для приезжих", - написал Тимчук.
Напомним, из-за кризиса в Украине США перебрасывают в Польшу 12 истребителей. Также в турецкий порт Анталия прибыл американский авианосец "Джордж Буш".
Источник: ТСН
A whirlwind of diplomacy continued Sunday — with Russian President Vladimir Putin speaking to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron — but there was no sign that Putin was willing to budge.
The Yatsenyuk visit was announced Sunday by Tony Blinken, Obama’s deputy national security adviser. “What we’ve seen is the president mobilizing the international community in support of Ukraine to isolate Russia for its actions in Ukraine, and to reassure our allies and partners,” Blinken said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
Geoffrey R. Pyatt, U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said at a news conference in Kiev that Obama’s talks with Yatsenyuk would focus on the Crimea crisis as well as the dire economic situation in Ukraine. He reiterated that there is no “military solution” to the crisis and called on the Ukrainian military to continue to show restraint in the standoff with Russia.
He said diplomatic efforts were continuing, insisting Washington and its European partners were in broad agreement on steps to push Russia toward direct talks with the new government in Kiev.
He added that teams from the U.S. Treasury, Department of Justice and FBI had landed in Kiev and were actively working with the Ukrainians to follow money trails and unravel the “kleptocracy” of former President Viktor Yanukovych’s deposed government.
Yanukovych plans to make a public statement Tuesday in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, Interfax said, quoting a source close to Yanukovych. The time and place were not specified. Yanukovych has mostly kept out of sight since fleeing Ukraine, although he gave a press conference in Rostov Feb. 28, when he said he would not ask Russia to send troops to Ukraine. A few days later Russian officials said he had written a letter the next day appealing for military help.
Raising concerns of unrest beyond Crimea, local news media and Russia’s Interfax news agency reported that hundreds of activists brandishing Russian flags had broken into a government building in the eastern Ukrainian city of Luhansk. They reportedly forced the mayor to write a resignation letter and raised the Russian flag over the building. The incursion occurred two days after a similar protest in the eastern city of Donetsk was put down by authorities loyal to the new government in Kiev.
Russia’s foreign ministry on Monday said it was “outraged by the chaos which is currently ruling in eastern regions of Ukraine,” and blamed both right-wing militants and the “connivance of the new authorities,” according to Interfax. The ministry alleged that “well-equipped people in masks and with firearms opened fire at peaceful protestors” in the eastern city of Kharkiv on Saturday, causing injuries.
But Crimea remained the core of concern. According to a spokeswoman for the Ukrainian coast guard, most Ukrainian broadcasts in the region were jammed beginning mid-afternoon Sunday. The only Ukrainian TV programming that could be seen by a reporter in Sevastopol was on two channels, one showing movies and the other soccer.
On Sunday, Sevastopol — home of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet — was awash in Russian flags as the rest of Ukraine was celebrating the 200th birthday of national hero and poet Taras Shevchenko. Matrons walking down the street in woolen coats and sensible shoes had Russian flag ribbons tied to the straps of their purses. Children skated through squares wearing armbands with the tricolor stripes of the Russian flag.
Some of those who tried to show their Ukrainian pride paid a price. Several people at a pro-Ukrainian rally were beaten up by pro-Russian activists, said Dima Belotserkovets, a pro-Ukrainian activist. He said he and others were kicked and punched until police eventually came to their rescue. Ten pro-Ukrainian activists were detained but later released, he said. At least one other was still in the hospital, Belotserkovets said, and one was unaccounted for.
Putin defends referendum
Russia held out a financial carrot to Crimea, offering 40 billion rubles ($1.1 billion) in support if the peninsula voted in favor of joining Russia in a March 16 referendum. That vote was called by pro-Russian lawmakers who seized control of Crimea’s parliament on Feb. 27.
Sergei Aksyonov, the self-declared provincial leader in Crimea, told Russia’s RIA news service that if the territory becomes part of Russia, his government would encourage the use of two languages -- Russian and Crimean Tatar – but not Ukrainian, RIA reported on Monday.
In a phone call with Putin, Merkel called the planned referendum “illegal” and urged Putin to de-escalate the situation, according to a German government spokesman. Blinken said Sunday that if the vote favors annexing Crimea to Russia, “we won’t recognize it, and most of the world won’t either.”
Putin also spoke with Cameron, who continued a push for the Russian leader to support a contact group that could arrange direct talks between him and the new government in Kiev, according to a spokeswoman at the British prime minister’s office.
But the Kremlin’s news service said Putin stressed that “the steps being taken by the legitimate Crimean authorities are based on international law and aim to protect the legitimate interests of the population of the Crimea.”
The Chinese government signaled Monday that it will continue to stay out of the crisis, with President Xi Jinping telling President Obama in a phone call that it is “very important for all parties concerned to remain calm and exercise restraint,” according to the state-run Xinhua news service.
There were no reports of shots fired when Russian forces encircled the Chernomorskoye border post in western Crimea, but about 30 Ukrainian personnel were trapped inside, according to reports from the Reuters news agency and Ukrainian television. It was the 11th Ukrainian base to be surrounded by Russian forces since they moved into the region Feb. 28.
Tension at military bases
On Sunday, Ukrainian military bases around Sevastopol were tense but largely quiet, with commanders saying that they were trying to avoid responding to provocations.
At one isolated base a half-hour outside Sevastopol, a sign taped to the gate read “Thank you for staying faithful to your oath.” Outside the gate, a half-dozen men in uniforms — part of the pro-Russian “self-defense forces” — milled around.
“They say they are here to defend us from ‘terrorist attacks,’ ” said Col. Andrei Ivanchenko, the Ukrainian base commander, using his fingers to draw air quotes around the words. “They don’t talk to us. But they are peaceful.”
Ivanchenko said the self-defense units report to a commander in the Russian military, a colonel who had come to the base four days earlier and told the Ukrainians to disarm. Ivanchenko said Russian troops stayed outside the facility, with snipers posted on nearby rooftops.
He said the base had been receiving food and calls of support from civilians. Pointing to a Ukrainian flag flying on a pole at the base entrance, he said morale among those inside was “as high as that banner.”
No Russian or self-defense troops were visible at a nearby Ukrainian air force base that was stormed Friday night by Russian troops. But Lt. Col. Andrei Aladashvili, the base commander, said the installation was under the constant observation of Russians stationed on nearby rooftops and in apartment buildings.
About 50 people were inside the base, he said, half of them women. All the weapons in the facility had been removed and sent to an arsenal, he said, to avoid any incident.
“Our main task is not to use our weapons, not to have any victims,” he said. “We must not react to any provocation. That is the most important thing.”
Aladashvili described a harrowing attack on the base Friday night, when a Russian military truck tried to ram through the front gate about 7:30 p.m. and Russian soldiers scrambled over the low walls surrounding the facility. The Ukrainian troops on the base lined up just inside the gate, he said, forming a human shield to defend their facility. The Russian soldiers threatened to shoot them in the backs if they did not move, Aladashvili said.
The standoff continued for five hours while Russian and Ukrainian commanders negotiated over the phone, and, eventually, the Russians left at 12:30 a.m. Saturday, Aladashvili said.
Morello reported from Sevastopol. Isabel Gorst in Moscow and Philip Rucker in Washington contributed to this report.
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