Saturday, October 15, 2011

ROUBINI: The Instability of Inequality | ROUBINI: Нестабильность неравенства | Raw Video: Thousands March on DC for Jobs | Wall Street protests go global; riots in Rome

ROUBINI: The Instability of Inequality

via Project Syndicate by Nouriel Roubini on 10/12/11

ROUBINI: The Instability of Inequality

NEW YORK – This year has witnessed a global wave of social and political turmoil and instability, with masses of people pouring into the real and virtual streets: the Arab Spring; riots in London; Israel’s middle-class protests against high housing prices and an inflationary squeeze on living standards; protesting Chilean students; the destruction in Germany of the expensive cars of “fat cats”; India’s movement against corruption; mounting unhappiness with corruption and inequality in China; and now the “Occupy Wall Street” movement in New York and across the United States.

While these protests have no unified theme, they express in different ways the serious concerns of the world’s working and middle classes about their prospects in the face of the growing concentration of power among economic, financial, and political elites. The causes of their concern are clear enough: high unemployment and underemployment in advanced and emerging economies; inadequate skills and education for young people and workers to compete in a globalized world; resentment against corruption, including legalized forms like lobbying; and a sharp rise in income and wealth inequality in advanced and fast-growing emerging-market economies.

Of course, the malaise that so many people feel cannot be reduced to one factor. For example, the rise in inequality has many causes: the addition of 2.3 billion Chinese and Indians to the global labor force, which is reducing the jobs and wages of unskilled blue-collar and off-shorable white-collar workers in advanced economies; skill-biased technological change; winner-take-all effects; early emergence of income and wealth disparities in rapidly growing, previously low-income economies; and less progressive taxation.

The increase in private- and public-sector leverage and the related asset and credit bubbles are partly the result of inequality. Mediocre income growth for everyone but the rich in the last few decades opened a gap between incomes and spending aspirations. In Anglo-Saxon countries, the response was to democratize credit – via financial liberalization – thereby fueling a rise in private debt as households borrowed to make up the difference. In Europe, the gap was filled by public services – free education, health care, etc. – that were not fully financed by taxes, fueling public deficits and debt. In both cases, debt levels eventually became unsustainable.

Firms in advanced economies are now cutting jobs, owing to inadequate final demand, which has led to excess capacity, and to uncertainty about future demand. But cutting jobs weakens final demand further, because it reduces labor income and increases inequality. Because a firm’s labor costs are someone else’s labor income and demand, what is individually rational for one firm is destructive in the aggregate.

The result is that free markets don’t generate enough final demand. In the US, for example, slashing labor costs has sharply reduced the share of labor income in GDP. With credit exhausted, the effects on aggregate demand of decades of redistribution of income and wealth – from labor to capital, from wages to profits, from poor to rich, and from households to corporate firms – have become severe, owing to the lower marginal propensity of firms/capital owners/rich households to spend.

ROUBINI: Нестабильность неравенства

via Project Syndicate by Нуриэль Рубини on 10/12/11

ROUBINI: Нестабильность неравенства

НЬЮ-ЙОРК. Этот год стал свидетелем глобальной волны социальных и политических потрясений и нестабильности, когда толпы людей хлынули на реальные и виртуальные улицы: Арабская Весна; беспорядки в Лондоне; протесты среднего класса в Израиле против высоких цен на жилье и инфляционного давления на стандарты жизни; протесты чилийских студентов; уничтожение в Германии дорогих автомобилей «жирных котов»; движение в Индии против коррупции; растущее недовольство коррупцией и неравенством в Китае; а сейчас движение в Нью-Йорке и по всей территории США «Оккупируйте Уолл-стрит».

Хотя эти протесты не имеют единой темы, они по-разному выражают серьезную озабоченность мирового рабочего и среднего класса их перспективами перед лицом растущей концентрации власти в руках экономической, финансовой и политической элиты. Причины их беспокойства достаточно ясны: высокая безработица и неполная занятость в развитых и развивающихся экономиках; неадекватные навыки и образование для молодых людей, чтобы они могли конкурировать в условиях глобализации; возмущение против коррупции, включая легализованные формы, такие как лоббирование; а также резкий рост неравенства доходов и благосостояния в развитых и быстрорастущих странах с развивающейся экономикой.

Конечно, дискомфорт, который чувствует так много людей, нельзя свести к одному фактору. Например, рост неравенства имеет много причин: прибавление 2,3 миллиардов китайцев и индийцев к глобальной рабочей силе, которые сокращают рабочие места и заработную плату неквалифицированных рабочих голубых воротничков и белых воротничков оффшоров в развитых странах; технологическое изменение, вызванное смещением квалификации; эффекты по принципу «победитель получает все»; появление уже на ранней стадии неравенства доходов и богатства в быстрорастущих экономиках с ранее низким уровнем доходов; и менее прогрессивное налогообложение.

Увеличение левереджа частного и государственного секторов и связанные с ним пузыри активов и кредитов частично являются результатом неравенства. Посредственный рост доходов за последние несколько десятилетий для всех, кроме богатых, создал пропасть между доходами и устремлениями расходов. В англо-саксонских странах ответом стала демократизация кредитов – через финансовую либерализацию – способствуя росту долгов частного сектора, по мере того как домашние хозяйства заимствовали, чтобы восполнить эту разницу. В Европе разрыв был заполнен общественными услугами – бесплатным образованием, здравоохранением и т.д. – которые не полностью финансировались за счет налогов, увеличивая государственный дефицит и долг. В обоих случаях уровни задолженности стали непосильными.

Фирмы в развитых странах сегодня сокращают рабочие места вследствие неадекватного конечного спроса, который привел к избыточной мощности, а также к неуверенности относительно будущего спроса. Однако сокращение рабочих мест далее ослабляет конечный спрос, поскольку это сокращает трудовые доходы и увеличивает неравенство. Поскольку затраты фирм на труд являются чьими-то трудовыми доходами и спросом, таким образом то, что индивидуально рационально для одной фирмы, является деструктивным в совокупности.

В результате получается, что свободные рынки не генерируют достаточный конечный спрос. Например, в США сокращение затрат на труд резко уменьшило долю трудовых доходов в ВВП. По мере истощения кредитов воздействие на совокупный спрос десятилетий перераспределения доходов и богатства – от труда к капиталу, от зарплат к прибыли, от бедных к богатым и от домашних хозяйств к корпоративным фирмам – стало тяжелым, вследствие меньшей предельной склонности фирм/капитала, владельцев/богатых домашних хозяйств тратить.

'Occupy' activists launch protest in Hong Kong

via News's Facebook Wall by News on 10/15/11

'Occupy' activists launch protest in Hong Kong

'Occupy' activists launch protest in Hong Kong
'Occupy' activists launch protest in Hong Kong Protesters launched worldwide street demonstrations Saturday against corporate greed and biting cutbacks in a rolling action targetting 951 cities in 82 countries, including Hong Kong. Duration: 00:48 From: AFP Views: 0 0 ratings Time: 00:49 More in News & Politics...

Around the World, Protests Against Economic Policies

via News's Facebook Wall by News on 10/15/11

Around the World, Protests Against Economic Policies
Around the World, Protests Against Economic Policies
In dozens of cities around the world on Saturday, people took to the streets as part of a planned day of protests against the financial system.

Demonstrators rampage through Rome, clash with police

via News's Facebook Wall by News on 10/15/11

Demonstrators rampage through Rome, clash with police
Demonstrators rampage through Rome, clash with police
ROME (Reuters) - Hundreds of hooded, masked protesters rampaged through Rome in some of the worst violence in the Italian capital for years Saturday, torching cars and breaking windows during a larger peaceful protest against elites blamed for economic downturn.

See more of "PERISCOPE - ПЕРИСКОП" via Mike Nova ...

"PERISCOPE - ПЕРИСКОП" via Mike Nova

Raw Video: Thousands March on DC for Jobs

via News's Facebook Wall by News on 10/15/11

Raw Video: Thousands March on DC for Jobs

Raw Video: Thousands March on DC for Jobs
Raw Video: Thousands March on DC for Jobs Thousands of demonstrators have packed the lawn in the shadow of the Washington Monument to hear various labor, education and civil rights leaders, including the Rev. Al Sharpton. (Oct. 15) From: AssociatedPress Views: 136 11 ratings Time: 00:42 More in News & Politics...

Occupy Europe

via News's Facebook Wall by News on 10/15/11

Occupy Europe

Occupy Europe
Occupy Europe Oct. 15 - Demonstrators worldwide shout their rage against bankers and politicians as part of the occupy movement taking hold around the globe. Deborah Lutterbeck reports. From: ReutersVideo Views: 0 0 ratings Time: 02:55 More in News & Politics...

Violence erupts in Rome

via News's Facebook Wall by News on 10/15/11

Violence erupts in Rome

Violence erupts in Rome
Violence erupts in Rome Oct. 15 - Violence erupts in the streets of Rome during demonstration to show solidarity with the Occupy Wall Street movement in the United States. Rough Cut (no reporter narration) From: ReutersVideo Views: 0 0 ratings Time: 01:59 More in News & Politics...

Violent protests break out in Rome

via News's Facebook Wall by News on 10/15/11

Violent protests break out in Rome

Violent protests break out in Rome
Violent protests break out in Rome Oct. 15 - Demonstrators in Rome set fire to cars and smash windows during a protest in the Italian capital. Rough cut (no reporter narration) From: ReutersVideo Views: 0 0 ratings Time: 00:48 More in News & Politics...

Europeans Struggle Toward Debt Solution

via News's Facebook Wall by News on 10/15/11

Europeans Struggle Toward Debt Solution
Europeans Struggle Toward Debt Solution
At a G-20 meeting, finance ministers grappled with the particulars of quelling the debt crisis ahead of a European Union gathering on Oct. 23.

Around the World, Protests Against Economic Policies

via News's Facebook Wall by News on 10/15/11

Around the World, Protests Against Economic Policies
Around the World, Protests Against Economic Policies
In dozens of cities around the world on Saturday, people took to the streets as part of a planned day of protests against the financial system.

Demonstrators rampage through Rome, clash with police

via News's Facebook Wall by News on 10/15/11

Demonstrators rampage through Rome, clash with police
Demonstrators rampage through Rome, clash with police
ROME (Reuters) - Hundreds of hooded, masked protesters rampaged through Rome in some of the worst violence in the Italian capital for years Saturday, torching cars and breaking windows during a larger peaceful protest against elites blamed for economic downturn.

Wall Street protests go global; riots in Rome

via News's Facebook Wall by News on 10/15/11

Wall Street protests go global; riots in Rome
Wall Street protests go global; riots in Rome
ROME (Reuters) - Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets across the globe Saturday to denounce bankers, politicians and businessmen for ruining the world's economies, with violence breaking out in Rome as angry protestors torched cars and smashed bank windows.

Occupy Wall Street not slowing down

via News's Facebook Wall by News on 10/15/11

Occupy Wall Street not slowing down

Occupy Wall Street not slowing down
Occupy Wall Street not slowing down Occupy Wall Street protesters march on Day 29 of the movement. From: CNN Views: 0 0 ratings Time: 01:01 More in News & Politics...

See more of "PERISCOPE - ПЕРИСКОП" via Mike Nova ...

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Wall Street protests go global; riots in Rome

via News's Facebook Wall by News on 10/15/11

Wall Street protests go global; riots in Rome
Wall Street protests go global; riots in Rome
ROME (Reuters) - Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets across the globe Saturday to denounce bankers, politicians and businessmen for ruining the world's economies, with violence breaking out in Rome as angry protestors torched cars and smashed bank windows.

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