Russia’s Relations with the CIS Countries: Outlook for 2020
"Cultural issues suggest a very real need for Russian soft power. The CIS and broader FSU space offer the most appropriate platform for the realization of Russia's comparative advantages in this field. The Russian language and culture, including the pop culture, are some of Russia's traditional soft power tools. Despite major losses in their audience reach, in the 2010s the Russian language and culture should go on to retain their significance, although the key lies in Moscow's ability to lead the post-Soviet states in economic development, education, science and technology.
To this end, quality higher education appears to have a special role. If Russian universities were to soar in global ratings, that would mean that a greater number of more gifted CIS students would seek their education in Russia. Consequently, Russia would become more attractive for these new states' elites and societies. If these educated young people then go on to obtain jobs in Russia, the country would benefit from enhanced technological and cultural potential.
The effectiveness of Russian soft power in the CIS could be also improved through Russian media and Russian Internet becoming acknowledged as the most reliable source of information and vehicle for the dissemination of new ideas across the entire expanse of the FSU, especially in countries with tougher political regimes.
Religion is, however, an absolutely exceptional matter. The Russian Orthodox Church has displayed the clear tendency to spread its canonical domain over Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova. In doing so, it faces a difficult dilemma – either to keep growing and moving towards a national Russian church or to reexamine its role in this attempt to turn supranational in the 21st century. The 2010s should show which direction the Moscow Patriarchate is willing to take. Developments within the Islamic community are no less significant, since stability in Russia and certain adjacent countries will to a great extent depend on whether Russia's Muslim clergy develops a model of moderate Islam that fellow believers both within Russia and beyond find attractive.
In conclusion, it should be noted that Russia's new challenges in the 21st century require qualitatively new approaches from its political class, economic circles and civil society. It is high time to launch an economic development model that would engender a modern economy. Russia must finalize the assignment of property rights and ensure genuinely equal justice for all; ensure its government is accountable to the electorate and create real political competition; and unite its political and economic forces on the basis of national interests and shared values. In this regard, the 2010s should become a period that defines Russia's destiny for decades to come, as well as its status in the world and in the FSU."
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